WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

 

CRITICAL POWELL SPEECH AHEAD, NVIDIA H20 HITS A WALL, MIT THROWS COLD WATER ON AI STOCK BULLS

Aug 22, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Critical Powell Speech Ahead

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows when the rotation started in SPY from tech stocks to other groups such as healthcare, small caps, and interest rate sensitive stocks in advance of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
  • Since tech stocks carry such a heavy weight in the S&P 500, the chart shows that although rotation stopped the stock market from going higher, the pullback is shallow.
  • Powell will be speaking at Jackson Hole at 10am ET.
    • If Powell is dovish and gives into President Trump’s demands, stock market bulls will try to push the market to new highs.
    • If Powell is hawkish, expect a battle between the bulls and bears to ensue.  On the bulls’ side, momo gurus will attempt to drive the stock market higher by telling their followers that Powell does not matter because his tenure is short term and President Trump has several levers to control the Fed.  Deflated bears will contend that Powell is right.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the most prudent course for Powell will be to simply say that the Fed will be data dependent.  There is significant data ahead before the next Fed meeting.
  • Even though not many are talking about it, in The Arora Report analysis, Powell may lay out a new monetary framework. The framework that the Fed is operating under was laid out in 2020.  The record shows that the framework has not worked well and is obsolete for the current state of the economy.  The present framework has its roots in 2012 when the Fed established its 2% inflation target.  In 2020, the Fed made a shift to allow inflation to run higher than the 2% target to compensate for the periods when inflation was below 2%.  The Fed may also back off from present employment goals.  The Fed may consider focusing not only on unemployment being too high but also unemployment being too low.  Low unemployment is a driver of inflation.   
  • It appears President Trump will be speaking today at noon.  As of this writing, the specific topic is not confirmed.
  • Yesterday, we shared with you:

Nvidia (NVDA) has a new China problem.  One of the reasons NVDA stock went up is that Nvidia gained approval for a China-specific H20 AI chip.  Now, the Chinese government is instructing large users such as Alibaba (BABA) to cut orders for H20.  In The Arora Report analysis, the Chinese appear to be insulted by Howard Lutnick’s comment.  Lutnick said, “We don’t sell them our best stuff, not our second-best stuff, not even our third-best.”  He also stated, “You want to sell the Chinese enough that their developers get addicted to the American technology stack, that’s the thinking.”

  • Nvidia (NVDA) has hit a wall with its H20 chips for China.   Nvidia has halted orders for components of H20 AI chips from its suppliers.
  • Adding more cold water to the AI trade is a report from MIT.  The report concluded only 5% of AI pilot programs are achieving their goals.  Selling was seen in several AI stocks on the MIT report.   
  • To us at The Arora Report, the MIT report is not a surprise. This is exactly what the change curve predicts that Nigam Arora developed 25 years ago.  The change curve is also described in Nigam’s book Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management: A Definitive Guide to Reach the Next Level.  Thank you for all of your emails wanting a podcast on the change curve.  We are starting work on the podcast.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Germany

The economy in Germany shrunk by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter vs. consensus of a drop of 0.1%.  In the face of weak economic data, the sentiment in Germany remains positive.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in  Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) continues to see selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6401 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 151 points.

Gold futures are at $3366, silver futures are at $37.79, and oil futures are at $63.70.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

See also  FIVE DAY TECH STOCK LOSING STREAK – SIXTH DAY WILL BE TROUBLESOME BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON POWELL, INSULT HURTS NVIDIA

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

FIVE DAY TECH STOCK LOSING STREAK – SIXTH DAY WILL BE TROUBLESOME BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON POWELL, INSULT HURTS NVIDIA

Aug 21, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

All Depends On Powell

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows a five day losing streak in tech stocks.
    • This is the first time tech stocks have experienced such a losing streak in 2025.
    • Last time it happened was in November 2024, and prior to that was January 2024.  Both times, tech stocks subsequently went higher.
    • If tech stocks close lower today, it will be troublesome – tech stocks have not seen a six day losing streak since the bear market of 2022.  
  • The chart shows slightly higher volume on the down move yesterday.
  • The chart shows tech stocks are at the top of zone 2 (support).
  • RSI on the chart shows that QQQ is oversold.  The interpretation in this case is that even though QQQ is oversold, it can become more oversold if smart money selling continues and Fed Chair Powell is hawkish.
  • Smart money continues to sell tech stocks to hedge against Powell being hawkish.  In The Arora Report analysis, smart money still holds very large positions in tech stocks; smart money is simply reducing risk at the edge ahead of Powell’s speech.  In contrast, the momo crowd continues to buy every tiny dip extremely aggressively as the momo crowd does not take risk into account.   
  • Nvidia (NVDA) has a new China problem.  One of the reasons NVDA stock went up is that Nvidia gained approval for a China-specific H20 AI chip.  Now, the Chinese government is instructing large users such as Alibaba (BABA) to cut orders for H20.  In The Arora Report analysis, the Chinese appear to be insulted by Howard Lutnick’s comment.  Lutnick said, “We don’t sell them our best stuff, not our second-best stuff, not even our third-best.”  He also stated, “You want to sell the Chinese enough that their developers get addicted to the American technology stack, that’s the thinking.”
  • The Treasury auction yesterday was weak.  In The Arora Report analysis, this illustrates the danger if Powell chooses to give in to President Trump.  You may remember the spot on contrary call from The Arora Report when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps – the stock market was expecting long term interest rates to come down, but The Arora Report call was that long term interest rates would go up.  After the Fed cut rates, long term interest rates did indeed go up.  Here are the details of the auction:
    • $16B 20-year Treasury bonds
    • High yield: 4.876% (When-Issued: 4.877%)
    • Bid-to-cover: 2.54
    • Indirect bid: 60.6%
    • Direct bid: 26.5%
  • In The Arora Report analysis, FOMC minutes released yesterday afternoon were a broadside against President Trump’s narrative.  
    • President Trump’s narrative is that foreigners are paying for tariffs and tariffs are not inflationary.
    • FOMC minutes say foreigners are paying very little of the tariffs.  Most of the tariffs are being paid by U.S. businesses; tariffs are seeping into the prices the U.S. consumer is paying and tariffs are likely to raise prices further.   
  • Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at 10am ET tomorrow.  The Arora Report call is unchanged from the one previously shared with you.  Here is the prior Arora Report call.
    • The stock market is now believing a 50 bps rate cut is coming in September. In The Arora Report analysis, the data does not support a 50 bps cut, but the pressure from President Trump to cut rates is relentless.  Here is the key question for prudent investors: Will Fed Chair Powell be objective or give into President Trump’s demand?  In theory, if Fed Chair Powell remains objective, the stock market should fall.  However, in practice, expect momo gurus to spread the narrative that Powell does not matter as his term is about to expire anyway.  
  • Initial jobless claims came at 235K vs. 222K consensus.  This indicates the jobs picture is beginning to weaken.
  • Walmart (WMT) is the largest retailer in the U.S., and therefore, Walmart earnings are important.  Walmart reported less than whisper numbers but is guiding above whisper numbers.  WMT is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio long from $19.25.  WMT stock is trading at $100.17 as of this writing in the premarket.
  • Leading indicators will be released today at 10am ET.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6389 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 151 points.

Gold futures are at $3385, silver futures are at $37.97, and oil futures are at $62.67.

 

SMART MONEY SELLS STOCKS MOST LOVED BY RETAIL INVESTORS – PALANTIR CHART TELLS THE STORY

Aug 20, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Smart Money Sells Retail Favorites

Please click here for a chart of Palantir stock (PLTR).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of PLTR stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows smart money selling in PLTR stock.
  • The chart shows PLTR stock has given up the gains since the last earnings report.
  • The volume on the chart shows the drop yesterday was on heavier volume.
  • The chart shows PLTR stock is near the top band of zone 1 (support).
  • The chart shows PLTR stock has returned to the trendline.  A definitive drop below the trendline would be a negative.
  • PLTR is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio long from $20.15.  Even after the pullback, this represents a gain of 660%.
  • As PLTR stock has dropped, investors also need to remember that PLTR stock has a path to become a $1T company.
  • The chart shows the prior Arora buy zone for PLTR stock which helped newer members buy PLTR during the last dip.
  • We previously wrote in ZYX Buy:

A raging bull market like we are in now sustains a high valuation, but if a bear market develops, a high valuation stock, such as PLTR, can be cut in half.

  • Members of The Arora Report are ahead of the curve – The Arora Report shared with you on August 4 that RSI on the PLTR chart showed divergence.  That divergence foretold the drop.
  • RSI on the chart shows that PLTR stock is now oversold.  Oversold stocks tend to bounce.
  • Prominent among the favorite stocks of retail investors that smart money was selling yesterday are PLTR, Strategy (MSTR), IonQ (IONQ), Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Hims & Hers Health (HIMS).
  • In The Arora Report analysis, smart money sold retail favorite stocks yesterday for two reasons:
    • Smart money is increasing protection ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.  Smart money always controls risks.  In contrast, the momo crowd almost never takes risk into account and is fixated on rewards.
    • Smart money recognizes that the sentiment in the favorite stocks of retail investors is extremely positive.  As we have been sharing with you, extremely positive sentiment is a contrary indicator.
  • There is a Treasury auction of 20 year bonds today.  The offering amount is $16B.  The auction results may be market moving, especially if the auction does not go well.
  • The FOMC minutes will be released today at 2pm ET and may be market moving.
  • Among important earnings this morning, Target (TGT) reported below whisper numbers and appointed a new CEO.  Off-price retailer TJX (TJX) reported above whisper numbers.  Analog semiconductor company Analog Devices (ADI) reported above whisper numbers.  Home improvement retailer Lowe’s (LOW) reported above whisper numbers.  LOW and ADI are in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
See also  AGGRESSIVE BUYING IN GOLD ON TARIFFS AND CHINA, TECH STOCK BUYING CONTINUES ON TRUMP’S PAPER TIGER MOVE

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 2.4M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.2M barrels.  The API data is bullish for oil.  However, in the longer term, the driving force for oil is the potential change in sanctions against Russian oil.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) continues to see selling after Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comment that the U.S. will not be adding more bitcoins to the reserve.  However, Bessent has been trying to backtrack his comment after bitcoin started falling.  

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6425 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 6 points.

Gold futures are at $3386, silver futures are at $37.59, and oil futures are at $62.51.

 

EXTREME POSITIVE SENTIMENT GETTING MORE FUEL – HOUSING DATA AND HOME DEPOT TREND, SURPRISE $2B CONFIDENCE IN INTEL

Aug 19, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Extreme Positive Sentiment

Please click here for a chart of Home Depot stock (HD).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of HD stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • Home Depot is important because it is the largest retailer of home improvement goods in the country.  Home Depot earnings reflect the state of housing and consumer sentiment.
  • The chart shows the price action on earnings release in the premarket this morning.
  • The chart shows HD stock is still below the high reached last year.
  • Home Depot earnings and guidance are mostly inline with whisper numbers.  In The Arora Report analysis, it is worth noting that the trend has improved throughout the quarter.  July was the best month of the year so far with comps up 3.3%.  Improving trends appear to be due to lower interest rates and consumers’ increasing willingness to spend on their homes.  Earnings also showed consumers are mostly undertaking small projects and foregoing large projects.
  • Luxury home builder Toll Brothers (TOL) is scheduled to report earnings after market today.
  • In surprise news, SoftBank (SFTBY) of Japan is buying $2B worth of Intel (INTC) stock.  INTC stock is jumping as this is seen as a vote of confidence.  The U.S. government is considering taking about a 10% stake in Intel. In The Arora Report analysis, this is a negative as Intel was supposed to get about $10.9B of CHIPS Act funds for free, but now Intel may have to give up a 10% stake instead.
  • Investors were encouraged by the positive signals coming from yesterday’s meeting between President Trump, President Zelenskyy, and European leaders.  The big change is that President Trump is now open to the U.S. participating in security guarantees for Ukraine after shying from them.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to raise his estimate of the amount of tariff revenue to be collected to be above $300B.  The stock market is taking this as a positive.
  • We have been sharing with you that sentiment in the stock market is extremely positive.  The Home Depot trend and housing data (see section below) are adding more fuel to the already extremely positive sentiment.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing Starts

The just released data came stronger than expected.  Here are the details:

  • Housing starts came at 1.428M vs. 1.311M consensus.
  • Building permits came at 1.354M vs. 1.39M consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and negative in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6463 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 99 points.

Gold futures are at $3379, silver futures are at $38.09, and oil futures are at $61.91.

 

ANTIDOTE TO AI BUBBLE CALL BY OPENAI CEO ALTMAN, GOOGLE GIVES BIG BOOST TO NUCLEAR POWER

Aug 18, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Antidote To AI Bubble

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows the run up in NVDA stock.
  • The chart shows NVDA stock is beginning to fall below the trendline.  This is a negative.
  • RSI on the chart shows divergence.  This is a negative.
  • NVDA is long from $12.55 in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  This represents a gain of 1333%.
  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is warning that AI is in a bubble.  Altman thinks investors are overexcited.  Commenting on private AI company valuations, Altman said, “Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money. We don’t know who, and a lot of people are going to make a phenomenal amount of money.”
  • As a member of The Arora Report, you have been way ahead of the curve.
    • In 2022, The Arora Report was one of the first, if not the first, to come out of the gate with a high conviction call that AI was real.  Further, The Arora Report call has been that money is to be made all the way to 2030.  However, it will not be in a straight line.  At times, it will be treacherous.
    • We have previously shared with you that The Arora Report expects AI to follow the change curve developed by Nigam Arora.  The stages of change are described in Nigam’s book Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management: A Definitive Guide to Reach the Next Level.  If you would like a podcast on the stages of change, please write to Ambassador@TheAroraReport.com.
  • Again, as a member of The Arora Report, you are ahead of the curve as the antidote to Altman’s AI bubble call is already built in The Arora Report system.  Here are the key elements of the antidote:
    • Dynamic hedging of AI stocks and ETFs
    • Dynamic hedging of the entire portfolio
    • Maintaining core positions and adding trade around positions
    • Taking partial profits
    • Proper positions sizing
    • Stop loss zones
    • Proper selection of securities
    • Proper diversification by industry, strategy, and timeframe
    • Short selling and inverse ETFs
    • Arora Protection Band
  • As Altman warns of an AI bubble, spending on AI continues.  Google (GOOG), along with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), is giving a big boost to nuclear power to support AI.  Google is agreeing to buy from Kairos Power and TVA up to 50 megawatts of energy from the Hermes 2 Plant in Oak Ridge.
  • President Trump is meeting today with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders.  The outcome has the potential to be market moving.
  • After last week’s mixed inflation data, investors are looking to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6464 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 2 points.

Gold futures are at $3392, silver futures are at $38.27, and oil futures are at $62.12.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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