WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

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By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

 

INVESTORS REJOICE MORE PEOPLE LOSING JOBS AS RATE CUT FEVER GRIPS, $4000 GOLD BECOMES A MAGNET

Sep 12, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Gold Magnet

Please click here for a chart of gold ETF (GLD).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the recent breakout above zone 2 (support) was successful.
  • The chart shows that gold is now in zone 1 (resistance).
  • Sentiment on gold is now extremely positive.  Momo gurus with no prior record on gold are now jumping in pretending to be gold experts and urging their followers to aggressively buy gold.  Historically, this is a common behavior of momo gurus.  In 2011, after missing the gold rally, from $600 to $1800 momo gurus also jumped in pretending to be gold experts urging their followers to buy gold.  Gold topped shortly afterwards.
  • For traders, gold at $4000 has become a magnet.  As a reference, gold futures are trading at $3681 as of this writing.
  • The Arora Report gold ratings are followed by individual investors, hedge funds, bullion deals, and jewelers all across the globe.  Members of The Arora Report can access The Arora Report’s gold ratings from the main menu of the Real Time Feeds.  At times, The Arora Report calls have moved gold.  As an example, here is a story by Business Standard, the Wall Street Journal of India, highlighting that an Arora call created ripples in the bullion market.  Long time members of The Arora Report are long gold from close to $1000.  Previously, The Arora Report call was to back up the truck and buy gold when it was around $600.  When gold reached $1904 in 2011, The Arora Report call was to sell half of the gold position and put a stop on the other half at $1857.  Gold topped at $1911 only hours after The Arora Report call was made and subsequently fell close to $1000.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, there are two reasons for the latest buying in gold:
    • Momo stock gurus have now discovered gold.  
    • Rate cut fever
  • In The Arora Report analysis, a dichotomy has developed: 1) investors are buying gold believing inflation, deficit spending, and high debt are serious problems; 2) investors are buying stocks believing inflation, deficit spending, and high debt are not a problem.  
  • Yesterday we wrote:

Initial jobless claims came at 263K vs. 240K consensus.  Initial jobless claims have not been this high since the fall of 2021.

  • After the jobless claims data was released, euphoria broke out amongst stock market investors as they rejoiced in more people losing jobs.  The reason is that as more people lose their jobs, the higher the pressure is on the Fed to cut interest rates.  The momo crowd is addicted to low interest rates.
  • When the jobless claims data was released, at the same time, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released.  CPI data showed inflation was running hotter than expected and still around 3%, compared to the Fed’s target of 2%. In a rational world, the CPI data should have caused the stock market to drop significantly.  However, the stock market is almost never rational.  The stock market completely ignored inflation and latched on to the perceived good news (by the stock market) of more people losing jobs.
  • The sentiment in the stock market is shifting from extreme positive to euphoria.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) is rumored to take a $100B equity stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI.  Interestingly, OpenAI is also believed to have signed a $300B infrastructure contract with Oracle (ORCL) and not with Microsoft.  In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market is perceiving this development as positive for both Microsoft and Oracle.  Further, the stock market is perceiving this development as positive for the entire AI trade.  This Microsoft investment answers, in part, the question as to where OpenAI will get the funds to pay Oracle.
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6587 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6700 and 7000 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 81 points.

Gold futures are at $3681, silver futures are at $42.73, and oil futures are at $63.44.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

See also  STOCK MARKET POSITIONED FOR ‘BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS’ – DATA AHEAD WILL DETERMINE 25 OR 50 BPS RATE CUT

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

A JUMP IN A LEADING INDICATOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET AND HOTTER INFLATION RAISES RISK OF STAGFLATION, MEXICO OPPORTUNITY

Sep 11, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Labor Market Steals The Show

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market continues to levitate well above zone 1 (support).
  • RSI on the chart shows divergence.  This is a negative as this indicates the stock market is losing internal momentum even as it makes new highs.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) was supposed to be the star of the day, but jobless claims data has stolen the show.
  • Initial jobless claims came at 263K vs. 240K consensus.  Initial jobless claims have not been this high since the fall of 2021.  Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull  and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
  • Headline CPI came hotter than expected.  Here are the details:
    • Headline CPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
    • Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • The stock market was positioned for CPI to be tamer after yesterday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, higher inflation combined with higher jobless claims raises the risk of stagflation.  Prudent investors should stay alert to the risk of stagflation because stagflation is the biggest enemy of your portfolio.  For those wanting next level information, there are several podcasts on stagflation in Arora Ambassador Club.
  • As usual, the momo crowd is oblivious to the data and buying stocks in the early trade.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the data today will make a 50 bps rate cut difficult for the Fed, but the Fed is under intense political pressure to ignore the data and cut rates by 50 bps cut.  
  • The FOMC will meet next week and announce the rate decision on Wednesday at 2pm ET followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Powell at 2:30pm ET.
  • Among important earnings after hours are earnings from Adobe (ADBE) and RH (RH).
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Europe

The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged.  This is inline with consensus.

Mexico

Under pressure from the U.S., Mexico is imposing 50% tariffs on Chinese cars.  This indicates that Mexico is trying very hard to appease President Trump.  If the stock market in Mexico dips in the near future, it will likely be a buying opportunity.  For the ETF of choice and the buy zone, please see ZYX Emerging.  ZYX Emerging has continuously covered Mexico for 18 years.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

IEA is estimating that oil supply will grow by 2.7 mbd from prior estimate of growth of 5.2 mbd. The report is bringing in selling in oil.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6548 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6700 and 7000 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 66 points.

Gold futures are at $3667, silver futures are at $41.54, and oil futures are at $62.84.

 

ACTION PLAN FOR PRUDENT INVESTORS AFTER EYE POPPING ORACLE AI NUMBERS AND PPI SHOCKER

Sep 10, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Eye Popping AI Projections

Please click here for a chart of Oracle stock (ORCL).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of ORCL stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows the price action in ORCL stock after the company reported earnings.
  • The chart shows ORCL stock is gapping up over 30% as of this writing in the premarket.  It is unusual for the stock of a large company like Oracle to move 30%.
  • RSI on the chart shows that ORCL stock is now overbought.
  • The chart shows very heavy volume yesterday.  This indicates a battle royale between bullish and bearish investors prior to earnings.  One of the reasons the price move is so explosive after earnings is that those investors who sold short yesterday are now scrambling to buy to cover as a short squeeze takes hold.
  • Oracle AI projections are eye popping and leaving investors in awe.  Here are the key points:
    • Oracle got into the cloud infrastructure business when Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) could not provide enough capacity for AI.
    • Oracle reported earnings lower than the consensus and whisper numbers, but that has been overshadowed by projections.
    • Oracle is projecting its infrastructure revenue to jump to $18B from $10B last year.
    • Oracle is projecting infrastructure revenue at $32B in 2027, $73B in 2028, $114B in 2029, and $144B in 2030.
    • The remaining performance obligations are now at an eye popping $455B, an increase of 359% year-over-year.
    • Oracle’s MultiCloud revenue increased by 1529% in Q1.  Oracle expects this revenue to rapidly grow every quarter.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, if Oracle’s projections turn out to be accurate, the spend on AI to 2030 will be more than the consensus at this time.  However, such spend will be inline with The Arora Report’s call from 2022 about making a fortune from AI all the way to 2030.  Prudent investors should not ignore the risk to the downside if Oracle’s projections turn out to be wrong.  Back in 1999, many companies were issuing multiyear eye popping projections similar to the projection seen from Oracle now.  Such projections caused a melt up in the stock market in 1999, but when the projections did not materialize, tech stocks crashed in 2000.
  • The action plan for prudent investors to profit from the upside but also to be protected from the downside has four prongs:
    • Have portfolios that resemble the Arora Model Portfolios.  
    • Follow the Arora Protection Band.
    • In addition to long term investments, consider short to medium term trades.  
    • Follow sophisticated techniques used by hedge funds and billionaires that are described in detail in the Trade Management Guidelines.  
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) was a shocker.  PPI came cooler than expected.  Here are the details:
    • Headline PPI came at -0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.
    • Core PPI came at -0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, if Consumer Price Index (CPI) is benign, after today’s PPI the probability of a 50 bps rate cut has now gone up to 40%.  If CPI is a shocker to the downside, the probability of a 50 bps rate cut will likely go much higher.  We will share with you the new probability after CPI data is released.  Also be open to the possibility that CPI may not be as benign as PPI.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, there are several key points about PPI that investors need to consider:
    • A large number of goods are imported from China.  In goods production, China is experiencing deflation.  Please see the section on China below.
    • In many cases, Chinese manufacturers are increasing their efficiency and decreasing their margins to compensate for tariffs.
    • This month, margins of companies in the U.S. are decreasing.  This indicates that U.S. companies are also eating price increases instead of passing them on.
    • In The Arora Report analysis, it is still not all clear.  Expect producers to test price increases over the coming months.  There is still a better than 60% probability that over the coming months, inflation data may not be as benign as today’s PPI data.
  • The action plan for investors after the shocker PPI data is to follow the Arora Protection Band and the Arora Model Portfolios.  This combination sets you up well for all higher probability scenarios.  
  • CPI and initial jobless claims will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
  • To stay ahead of the curve, prudent investors should also be aware of a new idea President Trump is floating – 100% tariffs on India and China in cooperation with the U.S. to pressure Russia.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
See also  BIG VICTORY FOR GOOGLE AND APPLE, FIGMA WILL TEST IPO EUPHORIA, TRUMP REACTS TO “UNSTOPPABLE” CHINA

China Inflation

The latest data from China on inflation is important to U.S. investors because the U.S. imports a large number of goods from China.  Here is the data:

  • August CPI came at 0.0% month-over-month vs. 0.1% consensus.
  • CPI came at -0.4% year-over-year vs. -0.2% consensus.
  • PPI  came at -2.9% year-over-year vs. -2.9% consensus.

Poland

To stay ahead of the curve, prudent investors should note an alarming new development – NATO shot down Russian drones over Poland.  This is a serious escalation.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 1.25M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6553 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6700 and 7000 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 6 points.

Gold futures are at $3681, silver futures are at $41.49, and oil futures are at $63.19.

 

A NEW YELLOW FLAG FOR PRUDENT INVESTORS – INVESTORS TURN A $4M COMPANY INTO AN $8B CRYPTO GIANT

Sep 9, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Yellow Flag

Please click here for a chart of Eightco Holdings (OCTO).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of OCTO is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows the huge move up in OCTO stock.
  • The move up turned this $4M company into an $8B crypto giant overnight.
    • Eightco sold 185M shares at $1.46.  Investors ran it up as high as $82.98 before the stock pulled back.  OCTO is trading at $48.60 as of this writing in the premarket.
    • The price range shown on the chart indicates tremendous volatility.
    • Investors are excited that the company will buy Worldcoin.
    • Worldcoin itself moved up 46% on excitement.
  • Worldcoin is the crypto issued by a project run by Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI.  World intends to scan irises of human beings and use the iris scans for human identification. To persuade people to scan their irises, people get Worldcoins.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, for a moment setting aside privacy concerns, there is a potential for a database of iris scans for personal identity.  However, investors are forgetting they are not getting shares in a company that is building the iris database.  Investors are simply owning shares of a company that will own coins created out of thin air.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, enthusiasm for OCTO shares is an indication of extreme positive market sentiment where investors have thrown all caution to the wind.  For prudent investors, this is another yellow flag.  Consider paying attention to the Arora Protection Band.  
  • Apple (AAPL) will announce the thinnest iPhone ever at its event today.  Depending upon how investors respond to the event, the event has the potential to move AAPL stock, and in turn, all tech stocks.
  • Prudent investors are eagerly awaiting Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data that is ahead.  The momo crowd continues to aggressively buy stocks.
  • There are important earnings from Oracle (ORCL) after the close.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT),Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

See also  EYE POPPING ORACLE AI NUMBERS – LOOKING BELOW THE SURFACE AT THE MONEY FLOWS

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Gold is at a record high.  

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6507 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6700 and 7000 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 12 points.

Gold futures are at $3691, silver futures are at $41.61, and oil futures are at $63.16.

 

STOCK MARKET POSITIONED FOR ‘BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS’ – DATA AHEAD WILL DETERMINE 25 OR 50 BPS RATE CUT

Sep 8, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

25 Or 50 BPS Rate Cut

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart of SPY is a monthly chart to give you a long term picture.
  • The chart shows when the stock market broke out in June.
  • The chart shows September is on track to be the fifth consecutive positive month.
  • The chart shows the stock market is above the trendline.
  • RSI on the chart shows the stock market is not overbought even given the gains since June.
  • Important inflation data is ahead.  Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday at 8:30am ET.  Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
  • We previously shared with you The Arora Report call that the probability of a rate cut in September is 99%.
  • The inflation data this week will determine if the rate cut is 25 bps or 50 bps.
  • Understanding positioning gives investors an edge.  Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.  To learn about the nuances of positioning that Wall Street keeps close to the chest due to its high value, listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “MARKET MECHANICS: POSITIONING.”
  • In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street is positioned for “bad news is good news.”  Even if there is bad news in the upcoming inflation data this week, Wall Street believes it will be a positive for the stock market because the release of the inflation data will lift the overhang.  
  • What if the inflation data is much worse than expected?  Momo gurus already have an answer to run up the stock market – any increase in inflation will be temporary because the impact of tariffs will disappear in the next two or three quarters.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Stocks in Japan jumped on the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba.  The reason is that the overhang from the defeat of the ruling party in the recent elections has lifted.  Stocks in Asia are jumping on positive sentiment from Japan.  The positive sentiment from Japan is being carried to the U.S.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

OPEC+ has decided to implement a production adjustment of 137K barrels per day from 1.65M barrels per day announced in April 2023.  Oil is jumping on the news.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6504 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6700 and 7000 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 80 points.

Gold futures are at $3660, silver futures are at $41.87, and oil futures are at $63.13.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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