WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

December 20, 2025

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

BANK OF JAPAN RAISES INTEREST RATE TO HIGHEST SINCE 1995, FLAWED INFLATION DATA, ORACLE TIKTOK DEAL

Dec 19, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Impact On Carry Trade

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows tech stocks are back to the top band of zone 1 (resistance).
The chart shows QQQ did not dip to the lower half of zone one before bouncing. This is a positive.
After today, liquidity will dramatically drop. Expect momo gurus to take advantage of lower liquidity to push their followers to aggressively buy tech stocks. Expect momo gurus to try their best to push QQQ to a new high.
Momo gurus already have very bullish projections for 2026. Prudent investors need to understand that momo gurus are like a one way street — they are perma bulls — always bullish.

Tech stocks have a potential to be impacted negatively due to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising its key rate. Often, there is a significant delay in the impact.

BOJ raised its key rate to 0.75% from 0.5%. The rate has been at 0.5% since January 2025. 0.75% is the highest rate in Japan since 1995.
BOJ Governor Ueda is indicating that further rate hikes may be ahead.
The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has risen above 2%.

In The Arora Report analysis, after years of deflation, inflation is now taking hold at around 3% in Japan. Deflation kept interest rates near zero for a long time.

Further in The Arora Report analysis, BOJ will also have to face the fact that the Japanese economy is losing momentum. This will make it harder to raise rates significantly.
Interest rates in Japan have been important for the carry trade. Over the last couple of years, funds have been borrowing money in Japan and investing in the AI trade in the U.S. These funds are highly leveraged. As such, they will come under pressure and reduce their borrowings and sell some of their AI holdings if BOJ continues to raise rates.
The inflation data released by the US government is flawed. Due to the government shutdown, the government was unable to gather some data. The government imputed some numbers. In The Arora Report analysis, it is highly likely that actual inflation data was higher than the released data. At any other time of the year, the realization that the released data was flawed would have negatively impacted the stock market. However, today, the stock market is focused on positive seasonality ahead, ignoring that yesterday’s rally was on flawed CPI data.
New York Fed President John Williams says that he does not see a “sense of urgency” to cut the Fed fund rate. Williams eventually sees rates lower than where they are now.
Lately, Oracle (ORCL) stock has been under pressure due to its plan to heavily borrow to build data centers. This morning, ORCL stock is jumping on news TikTok owner ByteDance has formed a new joint venture for its new U.S. business. Oracle is a part owner of the joint venture. The joint venture will be responsible for data protection, algorithmic security, content moderation, and software assurance.
Positive seasonality is ahead. In anticipation of positive seasonality ahead, money flows into U.S. stocks are becoming large. If history is a guide, smart money buying now will exit the positions they are buying now by the end of the year. The momo crowd will continue to hold.
Today is triple witching. In triple witching, stock futures, stock index options, and stock options expire. Triple witching often leads to volatility.
In important earnings, Nike (NKE) reported earnings better than consensus. Nike’s business is doing well in the U.S. NKE stock is tumbling because of headwinds in China. FedEx (FDX) reported earnings better than consensus but worse than whisper numbers. Prudent investors pay attention to FedEx earnings because they are an important indication of the economy.
The release of PCE and personal income and spending data is delayed.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and positive in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6835 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 26 points.

Gold futures are at $4363, silver futures are at $66.06, and oil futures are at $56.43.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

BETTER THAN EXPECTED INFLATION DATA, BULLISH MICRON PROJECTIONS BRING BUYING IN AI TRADE

Dec 18, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Better Than Expected Inflation Data

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows that the stock market is moving up on better than expected inflation data and Micron (MU) projections.
The chart shows that the stock market is in between zone 1 (support) and the magnet.
RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is coming out of the oversold zone and thus has significant room to run to the upside.
Here are the details of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data:
- Headline CPI came at 0.2% (2-month change September-November) vs. 0.3% consensus. Year-over-year CPI now stands at 2.7% vs. 3.0% prior.
- Core CPI came at 0.2% (2-month change September-November) vs. 0.3% consensus. Core CPI year-over-year now stands at 2.6% vs. 3.0% prior.

In The Arora Report analysis, looking below the surface at various components of the CPI data, CPI is significantly better than expected. This increases the probability of a rate cut in January to 60%. President Trump is likely to use the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) decisions to put pressure on the Fed. Please see the U.K. and Europe sections below.

Initial jobless claims came at 224K vs 229K consensus. This data is inline with The Arora Report expectations. Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories. In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions. Please click here to see how this is achieved. One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model. Most models on Wall Street are static. They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
Blowout earnings from memory maker Micron (MU) are bringing buying in the AI trade in the early morning. Here are the key points:
- Micron is guiding Q2 EPS of $8.42 vs. $4.71 consensus.
- High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is sold out through calendar year 2026.
- Customers are engaging in multiyear agreements.
- Micron is projecting a total addressable market for HBM of $100B.
- Micron is guiding gross margins of 68%.
- Micron is guiding CapEx to $20B from $18B.

In The Arora Report analysis, due to AI, the memory upcycle this time is likely to be more sustainable compared to past cycles. Memory goes through boom and bust cycles. MU is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio. MU is long from $21.77, representing a gain of 1072% as of this writing in the premarket.

As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

U.K.

The BOE cut its key interest rate to 3.75% from 4%. Four of nine members wanted to keep the rate at 4%.

BOE expects inflation to reach its 2% target in 2027.

Europe

ECB leaves its key rate unchanged at 2%. ECB is also raising its growth forecast for 2026 and 2027. ECB expects inflation to reach its 2% target in 2028.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6831 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200: support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 212 points.

Gold futures are at $4374, silver futures are at $66.53, and oil futures are at $56.11.

BUYING IN GOLD, OIL, AND DOLLAR ON VENEZUELA BLOCKADE, SILVER HITS RECORD, FED CREDIBILITY AT RISK

Dec 17, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Silver Record

Please click here for a chart of silver ETF (SLV).

Note the following:

The chart shows silver took a leg up to a new record.
RSI on the chart shows silver is overbought and could be susceptible to a sharp pullback.
As we have previously stated, the magnet for silver futures is $70. Silver futures are trading at $66.27 as of this writing.
SLV is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
On December 1, we wrote:

President Trump has said that the air space around Venezuela should be considered closed. If the U.S. attacks Venezuela, expect the stock market to rally.

The U.S has not yet attacked Venezuela, but President Trump has ordered the total blockade of sanctioned oil tankers. The news is bringing in buying in gold, silver, oil, the dollar, and stocks.
If the U.S. attacks Venezuela and Venezuela resists, expect the foregoing markets to go higher. On the other hand, if Venezuela gives in or the U.S. prevails easily, expect all of the foregoing markets to go lower.
We have been sharing with you the Fed’s credibility is at risk as the Fed has continued to cut interest rates based on political pressure. Now, the Fed’s own Atlanta Fed President Bostic is eloquently echoing the sentiment, writing, “Nobody knows. But what we do know is that credibility is a cornerstone of effective monetary policy. I am mindful of just how precious and hard-won our credibility is, and how difficult it would be to regain that credibility should it slip away. In my view, a half decade—and likely soon to be longer—of missing the inflation target could well imperil the Committee’s credibility as a steward of price stability.”
Fed Governor Waller said inflation is improving, but there is less certainty on jobs.
Micron (MU) earnings will be released in the after hours. Micron earnings will impact the entire AI trade. Micron has been one of the best performing stocks this year due to AI’s demand for high bandwidth memory. MU is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio. MU is long from $21.77, representing a gain of 987% as of this writing in the premarket.
Amazon (AMZN) is considering a $10B investment in OpenAI. OpenAI may agree to use Amazon’s Trainium chip in further challenge to Nvidia (NVDA). There is potentially more circular financing here.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 9.3M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 2.2M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6877 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 134 points.

Gold futures are at $4377, silver futures are at $66.22, and oil futures are at $55.99.

ANEMIC WAGE GROWTH BUT GOOD RETAIL SALES, OIL AND DEFENSE STOCKS FALL

Dec 16, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Mixed Jobs Report

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows that tech stocks are now just under the top band of zone 1 (support).
RSI on the chart shows that tech stocks are oversold. Oversold markets tend to bounce. This is especially important because positive seasonality is ahead.
The momo crowd immediately bought stocks after the release of the economic data, but, as of this writing, the rally failed.
The November jobs report was mixed. Here are the details:
- Non-farm payrolls came at 64K vs. 30K consensus.
- Non-farm private payrolls came at 69K vs. 34K consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 4.6% vs. 4.4% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.3 vs. 34.3 consensus.
- Average hourly earnings came at 0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, here are the important takeaways:
- Average hourly wage growth is anemic. This indicates that many people are getting raises of about only 1%.
- Unemployment has risen. This is especially important because the Fed is laser focused on the unemployment rate.
- Job growth remains solid.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales are solid with the exception of autos. Here is the latest retail sales data.
- October headline retail sales came at 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- October retail sales ex-auto came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, after this data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 20%. Of course, inflation data is ahead and may change the picture.
The U.S. has offered Ukraine a security guarantee. This could bring the end of the Ukraine war closer. Defense stocks and oil are seeing selling in the early trade.
In an important development, Visa (V) will use USDC stablecoin for a pilot stablecoin settlement program. USDC is issued by Circle (CRCL).
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. Wall Street machines will jump on whichever direction the market starts moving and exaggerate the move. Expect the market to open lower. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound with downward bias.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6865 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 31 points.

Gold futures are at $4334, silver futures are at $63.24, and oil futures are at $55.62.

SMALL CAPS OUTPERFORM MAG SEVEN, IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA AHEAD, GOLD BUYING ON DOLLAR DEBASEMENT FEAR

Dec 15, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Small Caps Outperforming

Please click here for a chart of small cap ETF (IWM).

Note the following:

Over the last month, small caps ETF IWM has outperformed the Magnificent Seven represented by ETF MAGS by 5%.
On December 4, we wrote in the Morning Capsule:

The move up in small caps is being driven by the higher probability of a rate cut as shown by Fed fund futures.

Money has been flowing into small caps since the latest Fed rate cut.
The chart shows IWM broke out above zone 1 (support).
RSI on the chart shows IWM has pulled back but is still in the overbought zone. This RSI pattern often leads to higher prices. IWM may become more overbought.
Seasonality favors small caps.
IWM is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
It is important that investors are diversified beyond the Magnificent Seven.
The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and may be market moving. October Retail sales and housing starts will also be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
Additional economic data is ahead:
- November retail sales will be released on Wednesday at 8:30am ET.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
- On Friday, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge PCE will be released at 8:30am ET, along with personal income and spending. University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET.
If all of the foregoing data is benign, expect that stock market to ratchet up. However, if the data is concerning, data driven selling can overcome positive seasonality.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Buying in gold and silver is very aggressive. Here are the key points:

The Fed cut interest rates even when the data did not justify it.
President Trump may name Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair.
The foregoing are raising alarms that the U.S. government is about to tacitly debase the dollar.
To protect themselves, investors are rushing into gold.
Central banks continue to buy gold.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Gold ETF (GLD) is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. Gold miner Newmont (NEM) and silver ETF (SLV) are in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio. An additional trade around position in NEM stock is in ZYX Buy reached its target, partial profits have been taken, and the target has been raised on the remaining quantity. Trade around positions is a technique used by hedge funds and billionaires to dramatically increase returns and reduce risk.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound, but the rally attempts continue to be met with selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6924 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 228 points.

Gold futures are at $4374, silver futures are at $64.02, and oil futures are at $57.17.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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