WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

March 7, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

SHOCKER FROM MOTHER OF ALL REPORTS, OIL TRADERS DEFY PRESIDENT TRUMP, RECESSION FEAR POKES ITS UGLY HEAD

March 6, 2026

Shocking Jobs Report

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows there is selling in the stock market in the early trade.
The chart shows zone 1 (support).
RSI on the chart shows the stock market can go either way, driven by Iran news and economic data.
The jobs report is known as the mother of all reports due to its importance. The jobs report is a shocker. No one was expecting a negative number. Here are the details:
- Non-farm payrolls came at -92K vs. 60K consensus.
- Non-farm private payrolls came at -86K vs. 78K consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 4.4% vs. 4.3% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.3 vs. 34.3 consensus.
- Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
Prudent investors need to be careful as fear of recession pokes its ugly head. When taking a 360 degree view using the following data, recession fear is justified:
- Job losses
- Rising unemployment
- Spiking oil prices
- Disruption in global supply chain
Prudent investors should also pay attention to history. Historically, some recessions have been triggered by oil shock and/or the Fed’s response.
Momo gurus are already out claiming that the government manipulates the data and is using this argument to persuade the momo crowd to continue to buy stocks. Prudent investors should ignore momo gurus as their real job is to run up the stock market and their own positions under the disguise of analysis. Instead, investors should rely on hard data and objective analysis. Think about it: Why would President Trump or any politician manipulate jobs data to show losses if there were none? As a matter of fact, politicians in power have an incentive to manipulate the data to show job gains ahead of the midterm elections.
Conspiracy theories regarding government data are widespread. In The Arora Report analysis, as much as it may not be a popular view, the government data is often flawed but not manipulated. It is often flawed due to the methodology, not due to intentional manipulation.
Yesterday, when oil was hitting new highs for this cycle, the U.S. government appeared to have floated the idea of the U.S. government selling oil futures. The U.S. government has the financial horsepower to depress oil and gas prices in the U.S. simply by selling futures. Immediately after the leak, oil prices fell, but the downturn was not sustained. Oil has gone on to make higher highs.
President Trump has already said that the U.S. navy could escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. could insure ships. None of this has had the intended effect of lowering oil prices. As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We wrote on March 4:

When President Trump said that the U.S. Navy could escort ships and President Trump ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to offer reasonably priced insurance to ships traveling through the Gulf, the momo crowd aggressively bought stocks. There was no smart money buying.
As usual, the momo crowd is oblivious, but prudent investors should pay attention to flies in the ointment:
- It is not clear if DFC has the authority to provide insurance to all ships.
- Providing insurance to ships in a war zone is extremely expensive. It is not clear if DFC has the resources to provide such insurance.
The U.S. can also release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
It is very important to President Trump that gas prices do not go up before the midterm elections. President Trump is the most powerful person in the world and has many tools at his disposal. So why are oil prices still going up? As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We have shared with you from the very beginning that the war might not be short lived, as Wall Street had believed.
Even though stocks are down, they have mostly held up. The reason is that the momo gurus continue to tell the momo crowd the Iran war will be short lived, and the momo crowd continues to believe and aggressively buy every tiny dip.
Investors should start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets,” and follow with Arora’s Third Law, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales are beginning to reflect distress among the working class. Here is the latest retail sales data:
- January headline retail sales came at -0.2% vs. -0.1% consensus.
- January retail sales ex-auto came at 0.0% vs. 0.2% consensus.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6748 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 643 points.

Gold futures are at $5118, silver futures are at $83.26, and oil futures are at $86.79.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

BROADCOM PUTS HEAT ON NVIDIA WITH $100B AI CHIP PROJECTION, KOREA WARNS OF DISRUPTION, OIL MONKEY WRENCH

Mar 5, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Heat On Nvidia

Please click here for a chart of Broadcom stock (AVGO).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AVGO stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows AVGO stock traded as high as $414.61 in December 2025 as excitement built about custom AI chips from Broadcom that challenged Nvidia (NVDA). Of note is that Broadcom chips provide less functionality than Nvidia chips but perform certain specific tasks well at lower cost.
The chart shows a major pullback since the peak, with AVGO trading as low as $295.30.
Broadcom reported earnings above consensus but below whisper numbers. As a result, the stock was initially steady after earnings but later jumped on Broadcom putting heat on Nvidia with a $100B AI revenue projection in FY27. For reference, Broadcom’s Q1 AI revenue came at $8.4B, growing 106% year-over-year, and Broadcom is projecting $10.7B in Q2.
Adding to the excitement is a new Broadcom partnership for AI chips with OpenAI. Broadcom now has six AI chip customers.
Yesterday, we shared with you in the Morning Capsule a report that Iran had reached out to the U.S. This report triggered a big rally in the stock market. The report turned out to be false, but strong ISM Services data brought in buying and prevented the stock market from retrenching. ISM Services came at 56.1% vs. 53.9% consensus. A number above 50 indicates economic expansion, and a number below 50 indicates economic contraction.
In the early trade this morning, oil traders are throwing a monkey wrench into the stock market rally. The stock market rally has been due to the momo crowd’s incessant aggressive buying of stocks on the belief that the Iran war will be short lived and every tiny dip in the stock market must be bought. The monkey wrench is that oil is moving higher this morning – rising oil prices are negative for stocks. Oil is moving higher this morning as oil traders contemplate a scenario where the war is not short lived. Iran is claiming it hit a U.S. oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. Due to rising oil prices, non-momo traders are trimming stocks in the early trade.
It is important to keep an eye on the South Korean stock market. Yesterday, the South Korean stock market bounced back after crashing. This morning, South Korea ETF EWY is pulling back as South Korea warns that the Iran war could disrupt chip supplies. This may be positive for Micron (MU).
Initial jobless claims came at 213K vs. 216K consensus.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China Gives Up On 5%

All investors should pay attention to China because China is the second largest economy in the world and is striving to replace the U.S. as the world’s superpower.

Historically, in spite of slowing growth, China has resisted setting its GDP growth target below 5%. Now China is giving up on 5%, setting its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5% – 5%. This is the lowest target set by China since 1991.

Long time members of The Arora Report may remember when China was growing at about 12% and everyone was bullish on China, The Arora Report was one of the first, if not the first, to make a bold bearish call that China’s supercycle was over. That call has now proven prescient.

On the practical side, due to The Arora Report’s bold, contrary call, members have benefited by focusing only on tactical trades in China and avoiding strategic investments. Most investors who listened to Wall Street and stayed bullish on China from a strategic point of view have lost money.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** but can quickly change based on new rumors and news about Iran. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Yesterday, bitcoin (BTC.USD) staged a major rally on hopes of favorable legislation. Prudent investors need to be aware that crypto legislation is hitting a road block as banks refuse to back a White House proposal.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6852 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 385 points.

Gold futures are at $5129, silver futures are at $82.85, and oil futures are at $76.96.

SECRET IRAN OUTREACH AND TRUMP PROMISE OF SAFE SHIPPING SAVES STOCK MARKET BUT THERE IS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT

Mar 4, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Secret Iran Outreach

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market made a lower low yesterday.
The chart shows yesterday the stock market rallied from the lows and closed much higher than the open on President Trump’s safe shipping plan.
The chart shows this morning in the early trade, the stock market went higher on report of a secret Iran outreach.
The rebound in the stock market yesterday was prompted by President Trump’s promise of safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dwindled to almost nothing. Commercial insurance carriers have stopped providing insurance to ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.
When President Trump said that the U.S. Navy could escort ships and President Trump ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to offer reasonably priced insurance to ships traveling through the Gulf, the momo crowd aggressively bought stocks. There was no smart money buying.
As usual, the momo crowd is oblivious, but prudent investors should pay attention to flies in the ointment:
- It is not clear if DFC has the authority to provide insurance to all ships.
- Providing insurance to ships in a war zone is extremely expensive. It is not clear if DFC has the resources to provide such insurance.
Ship owners are savvy. Expect ship owners to not take President Trump on his word, at least initially.
Logically, due to the uncertainties described above, the stock market should not have rallied as much as it did from the lows yesterday. However, the stock market is not about logic. It is about the momo crowd wanting an excuse to buy the tiniest dip. When the stock market starts moving in one direction, Wall Street machines jump in the same direction, exaggerating the move.
In the early trade, initially the stock market was seeing selling, but then a report came that Iran has secretly reached out to find an off-ramp. This report led to aggressive buying in the stock market.
In The Arora Report analysis, it is not clear how credible the report of Iran’s outreach is, and further, it is not clear that President Trump is ready to take an off-ramp.
Complicating the situation is what Iran may consider as an acceptable off-ramp may be very different from what President Trump may consider as an acceptable off-ramp.
Some political experts (we are not one) are suggesting that President Trump has his eye on the midterm elections and cannot afford rising gas prices, rising inflation, and an ongoing war. For these reasons, these experts think that President Trump may find a way to declare victory without achieving his objectives.
Expect TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) traders to aggressively buy stocks if the foregoing analysis of some political experts becomes the narrative in the stock market.
In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we shared with you the importance of the South Korean stock market to the U.S. stock market. Overnight, South Korean stocks crashed again, falling 12%. However, this morning South Korea ETF EWY is recovering on the report of Iran outreach.
ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country. ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET. ADP Employment Change came at 63K vs. 42K consensus.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade, and this behavior is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 5.6M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.2M barrels.

Oil has given up its earlier gains on the report of Iran outreach. The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying on the report of Iran outreach and is now trading above $70K. This demonstrates once again that bitcoin is not a hedge but a speculative risk asset.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6836 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 53 points.

Gold futures are at $5191, silver futures are at $86.13, and oil futures are at $73.72.

KOREA TRIGGERS SELLOFF IN U.S. STOCKS, $20K DRONES VS $4M PATRIOTS, COMPLACENT INVESTORS EMBRACE RISK

Mar 3, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Complacent Investors

Please click here for a chart of South Korea ETF (EWY).

Note the following:

The South Korean stock market right now is acting as a canary in the coal mine for the U.S. stock market.
The chart shows about an 11% selloff in South Korea ETF EWY overnight.
The chart shows the Arora buy signal on April 9, 2025 due to the tariff drop.
The chart shows the run in South Korea ETF (EWY), including the recent parabolic move.
The chart shows the Arora signal to take partial profits near the top.
South Korea ETF (EWY) is in ZYX Emerging. There was a 210% gain from the April 9, 2025 buy signal to the partial profit taking signal last week right near the blowoff top shown on the chart.
The chart also illustrates the immense power to generate profits and the big edge investors gain when they combine the ZYX Change Method with the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. On February 12, we shared in the Morning Capsule:
The chart shows South Korea ETF (EWY) has outperformed QQQ by 27.48%. South Korea is benefiting for two reasons:
- Two of the three major memory makers, Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL), are in South Korea. Memory is in short supply due to high AI demand. At this time, investors perceive the risk in memory makers to be lower compared to other AI stocks even though memory makers, including Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) have gone parabolic.
- South Korea is a big exporter of industrial goods. Industrial activity is picking up across the globe.

There are only three major high bandwidth memory for AI manufacturers in the world: Micron (MU), Samsung, and SK Hynix.
The crash in South Korea was triggered by the following:
- Spreading war in the Middle East, including Iran successfully hitting the heavily protected U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Production at the Samsung plant in Texas being postponed until 2027
- Samsung and SK Hynix stocks crashing
The crash in the South Korean market triggered a selloff in the U.S. stock market, especially in red hot semiconductor stocks. Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down 3.5% as of this writing in the early trade.
Even though the momo crowd is oblivious, prudent investors should pay attention to the unsustainable math in the Iran war. There are reports that it is taking two to three interceptors, such as Patriot missiles, to intercept one Iranian drone. Iranian drones cost about $20K each, while each Patriot missile costs about $4M. It might take $12M to shoot down a $20K drone. Some estimates put the number of Iranian drones near 20K. Just do the math, there are two problems.
- If the war is not short lived, it will be very costly for the U.S. and its allies.
- There is speculation that the U.S. and its allies do not have enough of a stockpile of these interceptors.
RTX (RTX) is the maker of Patriot missiles. RTX stock is ripping. RTX is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. RTX is long from an average of $85.07, representing a gain of 152% as of this writing in the premarket.
We shared with you in yesterday’s Morning Capsule how Wall Street was positioned going into the Iran war and how investors were acting in the early trade on the first market day of the war. Yesterday, the stock market rallied from the lows for the following reasons:
- Positioning
- Momo crowd buying
- Investor complacency
- Momo crowd embracing risk as opposed to reducing risk
- Smart money sold into the stock market rally
In The Arora Report analysis, the momo crowd continuing to embrace more risk as opposed to reducing risk has the potential to become the driver to the downside for this market if the Iran war is not short lived.
This morning in the early trade, there is significant selling in the stock market triggered by the crash in South Korean stocks.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade as they believe every tiny dip must be bought. Smart money is *** in the early trade after selling yesterday, taking advantage of the rally.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. The *** in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** gold in the early trade. In The Arora Report analysis, here are the reasons why smart money is *** gold:

If oil continues to rise, it will increase inflation and, in turn, bring interest rates higher. Higher interest rates are negative for gold.

If the momo crowd’s favorite stocks drop, the momo crowd will be hit with margin calls. Historically, the momo crowd ends up selling gold and silver to meet the margin calls.

It is important to note that smart money holds large positions in gold and silver and is simply tactically thinking ahead to take advantage of strength generated by the momo crowd while holding core positions.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is ***in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling. Yesterday’s rally in bitcoin was primarily driven by the retail crowd. Bitcoin whales appear to have taken advantage to sell to the retail crowd at higher prices.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6765 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 860 points.

Gold futures are at $5148, silver futures are at $81.98, and oil futures are at $76.01.

MANY INVESTORS OBLIVIOUS THAT POSITIONING IS MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR RELATED TO IRAN WAR – HEREIN LIES THE RISK

Mar 2, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Positioning

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows only a minor dip in the stock market in the early trade on the Iran war due to Wall Street’s positioning.
The chart shows that the stock market is still above zone 1 (support).
The chart shows the magnet that has proven to be formidable resistance.
As most investors react to the headlines with emotion, prudent investors need to understand that positioning is the most important factor related to the Iran war.
The stock market is positioned bullishly with very little concern for risks.
The reason behind the bullish positioning is the prevalence of the following beliefs:
- Iran will act according to the U.S. script.
- The war will be short lived.
- There will be quick regime changes in Iran. (Some U.S. officials are claiming that the regime has already changed.)
- The new regime in Iran will be very friendly to the U.S.
- The Strait of Hormuz will remain open.
- Oil and gas infrastructure will not be damaged.
- Every tiny dip in the stock market is a buying opportunity.
- In jubilation over a quick U.S. victory, the stock market will break above the magnet shown on the chart.
Prudent investors need to know that the risk lies in Wall Street’s bullish positioning with little concern for risk. Think of it like everyone being on one side of the boat. Everything will be fine if most of the prevailing beliefs described above come true. However, just like a boat with everyone on one side can capsize in a storm, the same thing can happen to the stock market if the reality turns out to be somewhat different from the prevailing beliefs.
Prudent investors need to know that there are early signs that Iran is not following the U.S. script.
- The belief was Iran will not attack its neighboring countries with U.S. bases, especially those friendly to Iran. So far, this assumption has proven incorrect. Iran is attacking neighboring countries.
- The assumption was Iran will not attack oil and gas infrastructure.
  - Oman has shut down gas production.
  - Qatar is stopping production at some facilities due to drone attacks.
  - A refinery in Saudi Arabia has been shut down due to damage from debris from intercepted drones.
- Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dwindled because tankers cannot get insurance.
Defense stocks are moving higher. In The Arora Report analysis, for the long term, the two top defense stocks to own are RTX (RTX) and Boeing (BA). These are in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. The top defense ETF to own is ITA. ITA is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. Drone stocks AeroVironment (AVAV), Draganfly (DPRO), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS), and Red Cat (RCAT) are moving higher. In The Arora Report analysis, these stocks are richly priced, with the exception of RCAT, and can easily fall if the war ends quickly.
Oil and gas stocks are moving higher. The best large cap oil stock to own is Shell (SHEL) and Chevron (CVX), and the best oil service stock to own is Halliburton (HAL). These are in the ZYX Buy. The best oil services ETF to own is OIH. OIH is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
Natural gas stocks are moving higher. The best natural gas stocks to own are EOG Resources (EOG), Range Resources (RRC), EQT (EQT), and Expand Energy (EXE). EOG is in the ZYX Buy Core Model, and the other stocks are in the portfolio that surrounds the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
Gold and silver are moving higher. Gold miner Newmont (NEM) and silver ETF (SLV) are in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. Gold ETF (GLD) is in the ZYX Allocation Portfolio.
For those who want next level information, listen to the podcast titled “FROM FEAR TO STRATEGY: INVESTMENT GAME PLAN FOR IRAN UNCERTAINTY.” There is also a podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “MARKET MECHANICS: POSITIONING.”
In an important development away from the war, optical stocks, such as Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Corning (GLW), nLIGHT (LASR), and Coherent (COHR), are jumping on the news that Nvidia (NVDA) will invest $2B in Lumentum (LITE).
This morning in the early trade, Wall Street is buying the Iran dip to front run blind money. Wall Street expects to sell stocks at higher prices to blind money this afternoon. Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis or regard for market conditions.
ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** but expect the market to open lower. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade and is extremely aggressive in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound. Bitcoin first moved down on the news of the Iran war but then moved up on the news of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6813 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 554 points.

Gold futures are at $5411, silver futures are at $94.15, and oil futures are at $72.19.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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