WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

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By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

 

TRUMP MOVE TEMPORARILY STOPPED STOCK MARKET BLEED BUT CHINA THROWS A BLOW, TURKEY SELLS GOLD

Mar 27, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trade Probe

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the rally from Monday’s low has failed.
  • The chart shows that SPY is now in zone 1 (support).
  • The Arora Report charts show premarket data for the current day but for historical data show only regular sessions.  For a majority of the situations, this leads to better analysis.  However, here it is important to know that the premarket low on Monday shown on this previously published chart was $641.61.  SPY is trading at $642.09 as of this writing in the premarket.  If the market does not bounce from here, it will be a negative.
  • RSI on the chart shows the stock market is oversold again.
  • Yesterday, the stock market experienced significant institutional selling during the regular session on concerns about the approaching weekend.  As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the curve.  Yesterday, the headline of the Morning Capsule published before the stock market opened was “MARKETS DO NOT LIKE LACK OF PROGRESS APPROACHING WEEKEND.”  We indicated that there would be institutional selling.
  • President Trump is a keen watcher of the stock market.  Minutes after the stock market hit the lows yesterday, President Trump extended the deadline to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure to April 6.  In the after market, the stock market rallied, but then China issued a blow.  China is starting a trade probe against the U.S.  Of note is that China is starting this probe at a time when the U.S. is preoccupied in the Middle East and before the Trump and Xi summit.  The stock market did not expect such an aggressive move by China against the U.S., and as such, this move has brought in more selling in the early trade.
  • There are two very different interpretations of President Trump’s move to extend the deadline:  
    • For the stock market, the positive interpretation is that President Trump is trying very hard to extract the U.S. out of the situation even though Iran is not cooperating.
    • The interpretation that is negative for the stock market is that the U.S. military was not ready to carry out President Trump’s ultimatum and needed more time.  With the extension, President Trump bought more time for the U.S. military to prepare for a big attack on Iran. 
  • The price action in the stock market today will depend on which of the foregoing two narratives takes dominant hold.
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET.
  • Turkey is selling gold.  Please see the gold section below.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama is warning that Japan may intervene to support the yen.  Prudent investors need to keep an eye on such developments in Japan due to the carry trade.  In the carry trade, funds have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in Japan and invested in the U.S., lately in the AI trade.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve.  We previously shared with you that central banks were now selling gold.  Now the news is out that Turkey has sold about 54 tonnes of gold to support its currency lira.

Momo gurus are in shock.  As we have previously shared with you, a vast majority of momo gurus who were leading the momo crowd to buy gold near the highs had no history or experience with gold but claimed to have become instant experts.   Prudent investors need to keep in mind that such momo guru behavior is common.  Momo gurus often become instant experts on whatever is popular.

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6488 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6600, 6780, and 7000 : support levels are 6481, 6322, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 220 points.

Gold futures are at $4434, silver futures are at $67.98, and oil futures are at $96.84.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

See also  MARKETS DO NOT LIKE LACK OF PROGRESS APPROACHING WEEKEND, OECD SEES U.S. INFLATION AT 4.2%, YIELDS RISE

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

MARKETS DO NOT LIKE LACK OF PROGRESS APPROACHING WEEKEND, OECD SEES U.S. INFLATION AT 4.2%, YIELDS RISE

Mar 26, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

OECD Warning

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows rally attempts so far have fizzled.
  • The chart shows the stock market is again approaching the top band of zone 1 (support) in the early trade.
  • This morning, there is selling in the stock market on the lack of progress in the Iran war as the weekend approaches.  The concern is that unless President Trump makes positive statements about the Iran war, institutional investors will sell tomorrow to reduce risk ahead of the weekend.
  • This morning, regarding the Iran war, the following are upsetting the markets:
    • President Trump is telling Iran to “get serious soon, before it is too late.”
    • The U.S. military is planning a “massive” final blow to Iran.
    • The U.S. now has over 50K troops in the area and 10K more on the way.
  • On the positive side, President Trump is saying that private comments from Iran are different from their public statements.  President Trump said, “They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal.”
  • This morning, the stock market is also paying attention to a warning from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).  OECD is issuing a warning on the impact of the Iran war on the economy.  Here are the key points:
    • The forecast for U.S. inflation is now 4.2% in 2026.
    • Annual GDP growth in the U.S. is forecast to fall to 1.7% in 2027.
    • G20 inflation is forecast to be 4.0%.
    • Global GDP growth is forecast to fall to 2.9% from 3.0% last year.
  • We previously shared with you that the weak 2-year Treasury auction was a reality check.  The 5-year Treasury auction was also weak, adding to the reality check.  Here are the details:
    • $70B 5-year Treasury note auction
    • High yield: 3.980% (When-Issued: 3.966%)
    • Bid-to-cover: 2.29
    • Indirect bid: 61.9%
    • Direct bid: 22.5%
  • For those wanting to learn how to properly read Treasury auction data, listen to the podcast titled, “TREASURY AUCTION DATA: IGNORE THE MOST POPULAR.”
  • The $44B 7-year Treasury auction is ahead.
  • Rising yields and rising oil prices this morning are also bringing selling in the stock market.
  • Initial jobless claims came at 210K vs. 210K consensus.  The data shows the Iran war is not impacting the jobs picture so far.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** but can quickly turn on news and rumors about the war.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

There is selling in gold in the Middle East, India, and China as their economies are negatively impacted by the Iran war.  

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

On the positive side, Fannie Mae will now allow buyers to use bitcoin for down payments on houses.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6580 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6600, 6780, and 7000 : support levels are 6481, 6322, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 410 points.

Gold futures are at $4431, silver futures are at $67.67, and oil futures are at $94.46.

 

MARKETS TRUST TRUMP VICTORY DECLARATION – MAXIMALIST DEMANDS FROM BOTH SIDES; REALITY CHECK – WEAK TREASURY AUCTION

Mar 25, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Weak Treasury Auction

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows continued buying after the stock market previously hit zone 1 (support).
  • As described in yesterday’s Morning Capsule, there was a deep excursion inside zone 1 in the premarket before President Trump’s post rallied the stock market.
  • This morning, there is buying in the stock market on President Trump declaring victory in the Iran war.  President Trump said, “You know, I don’t like to say this, we’ve won this – this war has been won.”
  • From our sources, Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal and is calling talks with the U.S. “illogical.”
  • So far, the markets believe President Trump, not Iran.
  • The U.S. has submitted a 15-point plan.  The U.S. demands are maximalist.  Here are the key demands:
    • No nuclear enrichment
    • Dismantling of nuclear facilities
    • Very limited missile production
    • No support for proxies
    • Joint control of Strait of Hormuz
  • It is not clear who the U.S. is negotiating with on the other side.  Iran continues to say it is not in talks with the U.S.  Iran has also put out maximalist demands.  Here are the main demands:
    • Reparations for the damage
    • Guarantee of no future attacks
    • No sanctions
    • No U.S. bases in the area
    • Iran charging for passage through the Strait of Hormuz just like Egypt charges for passage through the Suez Canal
  • There is conflicting information, and it is hard to know what is real and what is a chess game.  In The Arora Report analysis, in spite of conflicting information, the scenario with the highest probability remains a ceasefire deal that is minimalist to allow for more time for more negotiations.  
  • There are reports that U.S. allies in the Gulf are concerned that the U.S. will give up too much, in its eagerness to extract itself from the situation, and leave Iran as a more potent adversary.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, when a deal is reached, the highest probability scenario for the reaction of the markets is for the markets to not care about the merits of any deal and just sell oil and buy stocks, gold, silver, and bonds.    
  • What happens if there is no deal and the war continues?  In The Arora Report analysis, at least for now, hopium has taken over, and the markets are not thinking about this possible scenario.  
  • It is very important for investors to remember Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets,” and follow with Arora’s Third Law, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
  • Prudent investors should pay attention to a reality check that happened yesterday.  Two-year Treasury auctions are normally strong because there is not much duration risk.  In an aberration, yesterday’s auction was very weak.  Investors should pay close attention to upcoming auctions.  Here are the results from yesterday’s auction:
    • $69B 2-year Treasury note auction
      • High yield: 3.936% (When-Issued: 3.918%)
      • Bid-to-cover: 2.44
      • Indirect bid: 59.4%
      • Direct bid: 16.5%
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
See also  IRAN ESCALATES AND GOADS TRUMP BUT TACO HOPIUM KEEPS INVESTORS BUYING STOCKS

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** but can quickly turn on Iran news.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 2.3M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.3M barrels

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6655 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6600, 6481, and 6322.

DJIA futures are up 423 points.

Gold futures are at $4541, silver futures are at $72.80, and oil futures are at $88.44.

 

TRUMP MAINTAINS OPTIMISM BUT OIL HIGHER ON CONCERN OF WAR ESCALATION

Mar 24, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Watch Oil 

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • These days, it is very common for the most important stock market action to occur outside regular trading hours.  For this reason, our charts are specifically designed to show the latest market action outside regular hours.  When the day flips, for historical purposes, only the regular session action is shown.  The regular session action does not show the full picture.
  • Of note is the chart today no longer shows the market’s deep excursion into zone 1 (support zone).  The reason is the deep excursion occurred in the premarket.  To see yesterday’s premarket action, please click here.
  • The chart shows the volume was heavier the last two days, but the volume is not heavy enough to provide any sort of confirmation of the moves.
  • The chart shows RSI continues to hover around the oversold line.
  • Yesterday, the stock market was deep in zone 1 in the premarket shown on yesterday’s chart when, shortly after 7am ET, President Trump postponed the bombing of Iran’s power plants and said talks were making good progress.
  • President Trump continues to maintain optimism.  President Trump is saying, “…this time, Iran means business; they want to settle. They want peace.”
  • Officially, Iran is denying talks.
  • Countries like Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are attempting to mediate.  Information from these countries show that both sides remain far apart.  
  • Investors should pay attention to the oil market more than the stock market.  In the stock market, the momo crowd is extremely bullish but oil is seeing buying on concerns that there is still a high probability the war may escalate.  
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Eurozone PMI

In a surprise, in spite of the Iran war, manufacturing is undergoing expansion in the Eurozone.  Manufacturing should have been adversely affected by rising oil and gas prices.  A number above 50 indicates expansion.  A number below 50 indicates contraction.

  • Eurozone’s flash March manufacturing PMI came at 51.4 vs. 49.4 consensus.
  • U.K. flash March manufacturing PMI came at 51.4 vs. 50.0 consensus.
  • Germany’s flash March manufacturing PMI came at 51.7 vs. 49.6 consensus.
  • France’s  flash March manufacturing PMI came at 50.2 vs. 49.4 consensus.

Of note is the services PMI across Europe are coming weaker than consensus.

India PMI

Weaker numbers reflect the impact of the Iran war.  Here is the data:

  • India’s flash March manufacturing PMI came at 53.8 vs. 56.8 consensus.
  • India’s flash services PMI came at 57.2 vs. 58.3 consensus.

India is a big importer of oil and natural gas primarily from the Middle East.  If the Iran war stops, India will be a beneficiary.  There is a signal for a trade around position on India ETF EPI in ZYX Emerging.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** and will depend upon news and rumors about the war.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6618 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6600, 6481, and 6322.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

DJIA futures are down 129 points.

Gold futures are at $4407, silver futures are at $69.42, and oil futures are at $91.48.

 

STOCK MARKET DIPS INTO ARORA SUPPORT ZONE AND BOUNCES HARD ON TRUMP’S PIVOT – HUGE WHIPSAWS IN GOLD AND OIL

Mar 23, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Dip In Support Zone And Bounce

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that this morning the stock market dipped deeper into the Arora Support Zone (zone 1).
  • The chart shows a huge bounce from the lows on President Trump’s pivot as explained below.
  • On Saturday evening, President Trump had given a 48 hour ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. would bomb Iran’s power plants.
  • Iran responded by saying if its power plants were to be bombed, then Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz by mining it and attack the energy infrastructure and water desalination plants of U.S. allies.
  • Last night in Asia and earlier in the U.S., margin calls were hitting.  Pressure from margin calls were especially severe in gold and silver.  There was also heavy selling in gold and silver from the Middle East, Iran, India, and China.  For those seeking next level information, one of the most important podcasts titled “GOLD & IRAN WAR: THE CRITICAL EDGE AAC MEMBERS HAD WHILE GREAT ANALYSTS GOT TRAPPED“ has just gone live in Arora Ambassador Club.  The reason the podcast is one of the most important is that it uses the move in gold to illustrate how to think better than great analysts.  Leading up to the Iran war, great analysts were issuing buy calls on gold and silver at a time when The Arora Report was giving signals to take partial profits on gold, silver, and precious metal miners.  When the Iran war broke out, great analysts doubled down on their calls to buy gold and silver, but The Arora Report did not issue any buy calls.  The podcast explains the contrarian analysis that has now proven spot on.  The accuracy of The Arora Report analysis is evident from the moves in gold and silver:
    • Gold dipped from above $5600 to as low as $4100 this morning.
    • Silver dipped from above $120 to as low as $61.21 this morning.
  • This morning, President Trump decided to postpone bombing Iran’s power plants for five days.  President Trump’s action has created an extreme whipsaw in the markets.  To fully grasp the whipsaw, take a close look at the ranges so far today:  
    • S&P 500 futures traded as low as 6483 and as high as 6748.
    • Oil futures traded as low as $84.37 and as high as $101.67.
    • Gold futures traded as low as $4100 and as high as $4537.
    • Silver futures traded as low as $61.21 and as high as $69.98.
    • Bond futures traded as low as 111’25 and as high as 113’14.
  • Even though there is extreme bullishness in the stock market as of this writing and in The Arora Report analysis the bullishness is justified, prudent investors need to be aware that war is full of deception.  Here are the two scenarios to consider:
    • President Trump is postponing the bombing so that there is enough time to position Marines to take over Kharg Island.  If President Trump were to order the bombing of Iran’s power plants today, U.S. forces are not positioned to handle Iran’s counter offensive.  
    • Iran is agreeing to talks so that it has more time to mine the Strait of Hormuz.  
  • As of this writing, President Trump is saying, “Iran wants to make a deal badly, could be within 5 days or sooner.”
  • If there is a deal with Iran, expect a rip-roaring rally in the stock market, gold, silver, and bonds and a drop in oil.  If there is no deal, the U.S. takes over Kharg Island, and Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz, expect the reverse.
  • The Arora Report has given several actionable, tactical signals, including signals on gold, silver, and various stocks that are in keeping with the situation.
  • As far as the Arora Protection Band is concerned, remember The Arora Report principle: give precedence to the return of capital over the return on capital.  Most investors may consider not making any changes to their protection band at this time until there is more clarity.  Those who are aggressive may consider reducing the protection band by 3% – 5% but staying within the Arora Protection Band given below.  
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are extremely positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is selling gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is buying gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6692 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6600, 6481, and 6322.

DJIA futures are up 1025 points.

Gold futures are at $4463, silver futures are at $69.49, and oil futures are at $89.15.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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