WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

April 3, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

STOCK MARKET AND MEDIA GOT TRUMP WRONG – NOW INVESTORS POSITIONED ON WRONG SIDE, HOLIDAY SCHEDULE

Apr 2, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Positioning

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows that the stock market has fallen back in zone 1 (support) in the early trade.
The drop in the stock market is in reaction to President Trump’s speech. President Trump did not say anything much different than what he had been saying – the Iran campaign will end soon and the U.S. will continue to bomb Iran for the next couple of weeks.
Why such a huge reaction from the market? The reason is that yesterday, a majority of mainstream media got it wrong as they were reporting that President Trump would say he was ending the war.
As a member of The Arora Report, you already understand the importance of positioning. For those who are interested in deeper knowledge, listen to the podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Positioning.”
Taking the lead from the media, a large number of investors became very long yesterday, including going full on margin. Investor positioning became very positive yesterday. Wall Street is selling in the early trade on the concern that if the market does not recover, margin calls will result in forced liquidations.
Yesterday, we were being asked why the Arora Protection Band was reduced only conservatively and not aggressively. The market reaction this morning, once again demonstrates the power of The Arora Report’s algorithms and methodology just like on major events over the last nearly two decades.
Initial jobless claims came at 202K vs. 215K consensus. The data shows the jobs picture is strong.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Holiday Schedule

Happy Easter to you and your families. Due to the holiday schedule, the Morning Capsule was not scheduled to be published this morning, but the Morning Capsule is being published in view of the major positioning issue in the stock market. The offices will be on a reduced schedule today and Friday. Posts will be published as needed. The stock market will be closed Friday due to Good Friday. The next Morning Capsule will be on Monday.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6520 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6600, 6780, and 7000 : support levels are 6481, 6322, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 608 points.

Gold futures are at $4633, silver futures are at $70.32, and oil futures are at $112.22.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

TAKE PROFITS ON SHORT TERM HEDGES, STOCK MARKET EUPHORIC – TACTICAL WIN IS STRATEGICALLY PROBLEMATIC, HOLIDAY SCHEDULE

Apr 1, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Take Profits On Short Term Hedges

Short term hedges have become very profitable. Yesterday, a signal was given to take partial profits. Consider taking more partial profits on the remaining short term hedges. Please see a separate post on hedges and the section below titled “Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now.”

Euphoric Stock Market

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market previously went to the low band of zone 1 (support).
The chart shows the euphoria yesterday brought the stock market from within the support zone to above the support zone.
The chart shows in the early trade today, yesterday’s euphoric rally is extending.
RSI on the chart shows the stock market is no longer oversold.
Yesterday, in the Interim Capsule, we shared with you Iran’s president was saying Iran was open to ending the war with guarantees. This was the reason behind the euphoric stock market rally.
There have been reports that President Trump wanted the U.S. to be out of Iran even if there was not a deal with Iran and the U.S. could exit even if the Strait of Hormuz was not open. This added to the euphoria.
Now there is a contradictory report that the U.S. will consider a ceasefire when the Strait of Hormuz is open. The contradictory report is taking some steam out of the euphoria as of this writing.
Oil is the leading indicator. Initially, oil held up and then fell. As of this writing, oil is rising again on the contradictory report.
There are reports that President Trump will address the nation this evening.
It is still not clear what is going to happen. Having said that, the U.S. exiting the Iran war will be a tactical win for the following reasons:
- President Trump believes Iran’s nuclear plans have been set back by 15 – 20 years.
- Iran’s missile production capability has been drastically diminished.
- Iran has suffered massive damage to its armed forces and military infrastructure.
On the strategic side, a U.S. withdrawal without a comprehensive agreement will be problematic for the following reasons:
- Gulf nations may conclude that the U.S. having bases in their countries is not a good idea.
- Even a diminished Iran may strategically become more dominant because the Gulf nations will know that Iran can attack them and the U.S. cannot protect them.
- China will take advantage of the situation to develop closer relationships in the Middle East.
- China will be emboldened to attack Taiwan.
- Russia will be emboldened in Ukraine.
Consumer confidence came at 91.8 vs. 88.0 consensus.
JOLTS job openings came at 6.882M vs. 6.795M consensus.
ADP employment change came at 62K vs. 42K consensus.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales are stronger than expected. Here is the latest retail sales data:
- October headline retail sales came at 0.6% vs. 0.5% consensus.
- October retail sales ex-auto came at 0.5% vs. 0.3% consensus.
ISM Manufacturing Index will be released today at 10am ET.
Initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
The jobs report, the mother of all numbers, will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10am ET. Note, the stock market will be closed for the Easter holiday.
Expect blind money to flow into the stock market today and tomorrow. Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis irrespective of market conditions.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Holiday Schedule

Happy Easter to you and your families. Due to the holiday schedule, the offices will be on a reduced schedule Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow there will only be a Morning Capsule if there are changes in the Arora Protection Band or if there are other substantial developments. In the absence of substantial developments, the next Morning Capsule will be on Monday. All other posts will be published as needed.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are very positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

After falling earlier today, oil futures are rising again on a contradictory report described above.

API crude oil inventories came at a build of 10.263M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.3M barrels. This is war related.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6595 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6600, 6780, 7000 : support levels are 6481, 6322, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 143 points.

Gold futures are at $4748, silver futures are at $74.66, and oil futures are at $100.66.

STOCK MARKET GENERALS SHOT BEFORE TRUMP RESCUE PLAN OF NOT OPENING HORMUZ – RISK AND OIL UNDERPRICED

Mar 31, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Underpriced Risk

Please click here for a chart of semiconductor ETF (SMH).

Note the following:

Semiconductors have been generals of this stock market due to the AI trade.
The chart shows yesterday the generals were shot with incessant and deep selling.
The chart shows that yesterday, semiconductors touched the top band of zone 1 (support).
The chart shows semiconductors are bouncing this morning after President Trump came to the rescue of the stock market last night. Stock futures immediately jumped last night after a report that President Trump was considering ending the Iran war without opening the Strait of Hormuz.
RSI on the chart shows semiconductors had become oversold but are now bouncing on President Trump’s rescue of the stock market.
Here is the historical pattern that is of interest to prudent investors:
- In a decline, generals initially hold up.
- As the decline continues, generals are shot, just like the chart shows aggressive selling in semiconductors yesterday.
- After generals are shot, investors who invest only on technicals and typically would have bought a majority of their positions near the highs, see sell signals near the lows and sell.
- Selling by technically oriented investors often triggers margin calls in momo crowd accounts. Momo crowd accounts that also typically would have bought a majority of their positions near the highs see forced liquidations, putting further downward pressure on the stock market.
- At this point, bears are convinced that they are finally right and start short selling, putting further downward pressure on the stock market.
- The stock market rallies strongly, trapping the bears.
This time, the stock market is very different from any other time in history as the U.S. President is expertly managing the stock market from day to day during the Iran war. Nonetheless, it is important for investors to understand the traditional sequence of events as explained above.
In The Arora Report analysis, there is merit to President Trump’s potential plan of declaring victory in the Iran war without opening the Strait of Hormuz. The reason is that opening the Strait of Hormuz is not as simple as the media in the U.S. has made it sound. By taking this course, President Trump would avoid the most perilous path of the war.
In The Arora Report analysis, here is the downside of ending the war without opening the Strait of Hormuz:
- This will leave Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz.
- This will elevate oil prices.
- No other power in the world, with the exception of the U.S., is capable of opening the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s cooperation.
- Iran will become more potent and perhaps start charging a toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The result will be slower global growth and higher inflation.
The U.S. produces significant oil and is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil, but Europe, India, and China are.
In The Arora Report analysis, President Trump is justified in saying that the countries that benefit the most from an open Strait of Hormuz are those not willing to carry the burden of the Iran war. Then why should the U.S.?
In The Arora Report analysis, herein lies a solid framing for President Trump to declare victory. Should President Trump declare victory, the stock market will bounce. However, oil prices may stay higher, causing inflation and slower growth. These may cap the rise in the stock market.
Investors should remember that there are many other high probability scenarios. The only certainty is that oil price and risk are underpriced right now. In general, investors should aggressively invest when the risk is overpriced and not underpriced.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6457 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6481, 6600, and 6780 : support levels are 6322, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 490 points.

Gold futures are at $4603, silver futures are at $72.88, and oil futures are at $103.19.

STOCK MARKET BOUNCES FROM LOW BAND OF SUPPORT ZONE – DEAL NARRATIVE TAKES HOLD — RISK MISPRICED

Mar 30, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Risk Mispriced

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

Last night, S&P 500 stock futures touched the equivalent of the low band of the support zone shown on the SPY chart.
The chart shows the stock market has bounced from the low band of zone 1 (support) this morning.
RSI on the chart shows the stock market is oversold.
President Trump speaks often and says a lot of things about the Iran war. For investors, below is the most important recent post from President Trump. So far, the stock market is focused exclusively on the first part of the post and ignoring the second part of the post.
- President Trump posted, “The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Even though, right now, the stock market is focused only on the first part of the post, prudent investors should pay attention to the entirety of the post. In The Arora Report analysis, when the entirety of the post is taken into account, the stock market is mispricing the risk and buying on hopium.
Interestingly, the oil market is ignoring President Trump’s post.
Lately, yields have been rising on inflation concerns. However, this morning yields are coming down on hopium of a deal with Iran.
Economic data is ahead this week:
- JOLTS report and consumer confidence will be released Tuesday at 10am ET.
- ADP employment change will be released Wednesday at 8:15am ET, followed by retail sales at 8:30am ET, and ISM Manufacturing Index at 10am ET.
- Initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
- The jobs report, the mother of all numbers, will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Japan is important because funds have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in yen and invested in the U.S., lately in the AI trade. The yen briefly touched 160 per dollar, but then bounced after there was no opposition to rate hikes in the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Gold and silver are seeing *** as yields come down.

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6456 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6481, 6600, and 6780 : support levels are 6322, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 313 points.

Gold futures are at $4594, silver futures are at $71.51, and oil futures are at $101.23.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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