By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
PAY ATTENTION TO MYTHOS RISK, LOW VOLUME MELT UP, IGNORE HIGH INFLATION DATA, MARKET POSITIONING PRE-IRAN TALKS
Apr 10, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Mythos Risk
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the stock market has now rallied into zone 1 (resistance).
- The chart shows the volume yesterday was even lower than the low volume on the first day of the rally on the gap up. This indicates that, so far, there is no volume confirmation of the rally.
- There are two contradictory implications of the low volume:
- The lack of volume indicates that investors broadly have not participated in this rally. As such, if the rally continues, FOMO (fear of missing out) will kick in, and investors who have not participated will be buying at higher prices, resulting in a powerful up move in the stock market.
- If the market starts pulling back, investors who refrained from buying into this rally will likely see that as a confirmation of their bearish beliefs and take even more capital out of the stock market, causing a rapid downturn.
- In The Arora Report analysis, which interpretation turns out to be right will depend on the success of Iran talks, economic data, and upcoming earnings. Prudent investors should refrain from having a strong opinion about the market direction but instead consider letting the hard data guide.
- RSI on the chart shows the stock market has become very overbought. An overbought market is susceptible to a pullback.
- Anthropic’s yet to be broadly released Mythos model has raised serious concern at the highest levels of U.S. financial leadership, with indications that its capabilities could materially change how quickly and effectively sophisticated cyber intrusions can be executed against critical systems, prompting urgent attention from policymakers and large financial institutions.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell convened bank CEOs, a notable step that underscores rising concern that advanced AI could challenge existing safeguards across the financial system.
- Anthropic is limiting access to Mythos due to concern that its capabilities may expose previously unknown weaknesses, reinforcing the need for stronger defensive measures even as offensive capabilities advance.
- Mythos has the potential to seriously disrupt existing cybersecurity paradigms, putting pressure on cybersecurity stocks. Stocks such as CRWD, PANW, and ZS and ETFs such as HACK, BUG, and CIBR have come under pressure.
- The development adds to pressure on software names as investors reassess durability of business models in an environment where increasingly capable AI can alter competitive dynamics faster than expected. Software stocks such as ADBE, CRM, NOW, MNDY, ORCL, and software ETF IGV have come under pressure.
- To keep investors ahead of the curve, The Arora Report yesterday issued five different signals to reduce risk from Anthropic Mythos. More signals will be forthcoming to reduce risks as well as to take advantage of new opportunities. We are also starting work on a new podcast for those wanting next level information. The podcast will be in Arora Ambassador Club. To get on the waitlist to join, please fill out the form below.
- Iran talks are ahead. Prudent investors should note the stock market is positioned for the Iran talks to be highly successful. Due to this positioning, in case talks are not successful, there is significant downside risk to the stock market. Having said that, it is important to note that President Trump is looking for an off ramp, and this increases the probability of success.
- Prudent investors should ignore the just released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The reason is that headline CPI includes a 21% rise in gasoline. This is related to the Iran war and will likely come down. Overall, gas prices have gone up by 40% – this indicates that the next set of data will also be distorted. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 0.9% vs. 0.7% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** and will depend on news and rumors about the Iran war. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6873 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6600, and 6481.
DJIA futures are up 2 points.
Gold futures are at $4792, silver futures are at $75.88, and oil futures are at $97.62.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
SMART MONEY WATCHING VOLUME DIVERGENCE AT KEY RESISTANCE – EXHAUSTION TRAP OR SPRINGBOARD HIGHER?
Apr 9, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Key Resistance
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that yesterday’s rally approached the low band of zone 1 (resistance).
- The chart shows a big gap up.
- The chart shows yesterday’s rally after the big gap was on low volume. Smart money is watching volume divergence at key resistance.
- The chart shows the stock market is pulling back slightly this morning.
- RSI on the chart shows the stock market is now slightly overbought.
- Due to lack of volume confirmation, here is the key question for investors: Is the gap an exhaustion trap or is it a springboard higher? Looking at the history of similar patterns shows that about half the time it turns out to be an exhaustion gap and the market moves lower, while the other half of the time the stock market launches higher in a powerful way. History is not instructive here.
- In The Arora Report analysis, what happens next in the stock market is dependent upon five factors we shared with you in yesterday’s Morning Capsule. We wrote:
-
The ceasefire is fragile. The statements from Iran and the U.S. as to what has been agreed upon are remarkably different. Will Iran and the U.S. reach a final agreement? It will come down to how much President Trump wants to overlook to declare victory.
-
The probability of hostilities resuming again is low but not zero.
-
Despite all the damage Iran has sustained, Iran is in a strategically stronger position now than it was before the war started, provided the current regime does not collapse because of infighting. If the current regime does not collapse, in the long term, this war is negative for the U.S. However, if the current regime collapses, the long term will be very positive for the U.S.
-
Important inflation data is ahead. If inflation is hot, expect Wall Street to dismiss it with claims that the hot inflation was due to the war.
-
Earnings season is ahead. Corporations have been raising prices. As such, expect earnings to be good. In those cases where earnings are not good, expect Wall Street to rationalize that it is the result of war and issue buy signals.
- PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Core inflation came slightly higher than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline PCE came at 0.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- Core PCE came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending. Personal income fell off the cliff, but consumers continued to spend. Here are the details:
- Personal spending came at 0.5% vs. 0.6% consensus.
- Personal income came at -0.1% vs. 0.5% consensus.
- Initial jobless claims came at 219K vs. 215K consensus. This indicates employment is stable.
- Q4 GDP-third estimate came at 0.5% vs. 0.7% consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, this number is weaker than expected, but it is a lagging indicator and the Iran war has already boosted the economy.
- Q4 GDP deflator-third estimate came at 3.7% vs. 3.8% consensus.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
- Talks with Iran start in Islamabad, Pakistan tomorrow. Iran is warning that continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon will make talks meaningless.
- Prudent investors should note oil has been moving higher as Iran has stopped passage through the Strait of Hormuz due to Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
- It is important to emphasize the phrase “especially on a pullback” in yesterday’s Morning Capsule as it relates to deploying cash and taking profits on hedges.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** and will depend upon developments related to the Middle East. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6806 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6600, and 6481.
DJIA futures are down 166 points.
Gold futures are at $4768, silver futures are at $74.35, and oil futures are at $99.77.
DEPLOY CASH AND REDUCE HEDGES, SPECTACULAR RALLY LEADS STOCK MARKET TO RESISTANCE ZONE, INFLATION DATA AHEAD
Apr 8, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Deploy Cash And Reduce Hedges
The remaining hedges are still very profitable. Consider taking additional profits on hedges, especially on any pullback. Consider deploying cash, especially on a pullback.
Please see the Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now section below for details.
Market At Resistance Zone
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the stock market has staged a spectacular rally on the news of a ceasefire with Iran.
- The chart shows that the stock market is now at the bottom band of zone 1 (resistance).
- Of special note is that as the chart shows, during the Iran war, the stock market touched the low band of zone 2 (support); it did not break down through the low band and bounce. This is more remarkable when you consider the Arora support zone was given well in advance and was very different from any other support level that major Wall Street banks were providing – none of Wall Street’s support levels held. This demonstrates the power of Arora zones. Arora zones have nearly a two decade record of accuracy.
- RSI on the chart shows the stock market has room to go higher.
- Here is the key question for investors: Will the stock market get stuck in zone 1 in the near term, or will it break out to the magnet first and then go higher? Consider not following gurus who claim to know for sure what is going to happen next. Start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.” What happens next will come down to the following:
- The ceasefire is fragile. The statements from Iran and the U.S. as to what has been agreed upon are remarkably different. Will Iran and the U.S. reach a final agreement? It will come down to how much President Trump wants to overlook to declare victory.
- The probability of hostilities resuming again is low but not zero.
- Despite all the damage Iran has sustained, Iran is in a strategically stronger position now than it was before the war started, provided the current regime does not collapse because of infighting. If the current regime does not collapse, in the long term, this war is negative for the U.S. However, if the current regime collapses, the long term will be very positive for the U.S.
- Important inflation data is ahead. If inflation is hot, expect Wall Street to dismiss it with claims that the hot inflation was due to the war.
- Earnings season is ahead. Corporations have been raising prices. As such, expect earnings to be good. In those cases where earnings are not good, expect Wall Street to rationalize that it is the result of war and issue buy signals.
- FOMC minutes will be released today at 2pm ET.
- PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, as well as personal income and spending, initial jobless claims, and GDP will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Friday at 8:30am ET, followed by University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10am ET.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** due to extremely aggressive ***, which historically leads to a pullback. However, due to the Iran development, there is uncertainty as to what is going to happen. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is extremely *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a build of 3.719M barrels vs. 10.263M barrels previously.
The momo crowd is extremely aggressively *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6832 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6600, and 6481.
DJIA futures are up 1238 points.
Gold futures are at $4819, silver futures are at $77.41, and oil futures are at $93.42.
BULLISH STOCK MARKET POSITIONING CONFRONTS ‘A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL PROBABLY DIE TONIGHT’
Apr 7, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Market Positioning
Please click here for a chart of oil services ETF (OIH).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the rise in OIH on the Iran war.
- Oil service stocks are the main beneficiaries, not only from the rise in oil but also from the destruction of energy infrastructure. Ultimately, destroyed energy infrastructure will be rebuilt, benefiting oil service stocks.
- The chart shows a prior Arora buy zone and huge gains from that buy zone. OIH is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
- The chart shows recent partial profit taking signals near the recent high.
- As a member of The Arora Report, you already know that knowledge of positioning in the stock market is very important. Determining positioning is a complex process – right now, movements in OIH provide important data.
- The chart shows a pullback in OIH. This pullback in OIH indicates that the stock market is now positioned for the resolution of the Iran war, not an escalation.
- Including many other factors, in addition to OIH, in The Arora Report analysis, right now the stock market positioning is bullish.
- This morning, bullish positioning is confronting President Trump’s post ahead of the 8pm ET deadline for Iran to reach a deal. President Trump posted, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionary wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”
- Only President Trump and perhaps his inner circle know what is going to happen next. If there is a deescalation, the stock market will rally. On the other hand, if there is escalation, due to positive positioning, the stock market can move significantly to the downside. In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market is not prepared for the downside.
- Consider reviewing your portfolio as to where it is situated in the Arora Protection Band. Based on your personal preference, within the Arora Protection Band, consider being situated such that you are comfortable if any of the following three scenarios occur:
- If President Trump escalates and Iran is able to retaliate in a meaningful way, there is significant downside risk to this market.
- If President Trump escalates and Iran is not able to retaliate, the stock market will likely go up.
- If there is a deal reached without escalation, the stock market will likely go up.
- The Arora Protection Band is using probabilities to strike the optimum balance between various scenarios.
- Durable orders data is mixed. Here are the details:
- Durable orders came in at -1.4% vs 0.5% consensus.
- Durable orders ex-transportation came at 0.8% vs 0.5% consensus.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** in stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in stocks in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** and will depend on news and rumors about the Iran war. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in gold in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in oil in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6622 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6600, 6481, and 6322.
DJIA futures are down 166 points.
Gold futures are at $4688, silver futures are at $72.36, and oil futures are at $114.87.
CEASEFIRE HOPIUM KEEPS STOCK MARKET ABOVE SUPPORT ZONE, IMPORTANT INFLATION DATA AHEAD
Apr 6, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Ceasefire Hopium
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the stock market continues to stay above zone 1 (support).
- RSI on the chart shows the stock market can easily go either way.
- On Sunday night, stock futures initially saw selling due to President Trump’s ultimatum to bomb power plants and bridges in Iran if no deal is reached.
- Asian stock markets opened higher on rumors of a ceasefire and the strength seeped into U.S. stock futures.
- Oil futures continue to be the leading indicator. Last night, oil futures also opened higher but have continued to pull back as ceasefire hopium builds.
- In The Arora Report analysis, as of this writing, the stock market has mostly bought into the prospect of a ceasefire and is ignoring the prospect of escalation.
- The jobs report was exceptionally strong. Here is the data:
- Non-farm payrolls came at 178K vs. 51K consensus.
- Non-farm private payrolls came at 186K vs. 51K consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 4.3% vs. 4.4% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.2 vs. 34.3 consensus.
- Average hourly earnings came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- President Trump will hold a press conference with military leaders at 1pm ET. The press conference may be market moving. President Trump has extended his deadline for the Iran ultimatum until Tuesday.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
- There is economic data ahead this week:
- Durable orders will be released Tuesday at 8:30am ET.
- FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday at 2pm ET.
- PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, as well as personal income and spending, initial jobless claims, and GDP will be released Thursday at 8:30am ET.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Friday at 8:30am ET, followed by University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10am ET.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** and will depend on news and rumors about the war. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6625 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6600, 6481, and 6322.
DJIA futures are down 78 points.
Gold futures are at $4698, silver futures are at $73.36, and oil futures are at $110.81.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

