WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

August 15, 2026

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

APPLIED MATERIALS EARNINGS EXPOSE A TRAP FOR INVESTORS; RETAIL SALES STUMBLE

Aug 14, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Investor Traps

Please click here for a chart of Applied Materials stock (AMAT).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AMAT stock is being used to illustrate the point. Applied Materials is one of the largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturers in the world and is critical to the AI revolution.
The chart shows AMAT stock is falling after earnings.
The chart shows the AMAT stock has fallen 32% from its high earlier this year.
Applied Materials reported earnings better than consensus but below whisper numbers. Here are the details:
- Applied Materials reported EPS of $3.50 vs. $3.39 consensus.
- Applied Materials reported revenue of $9.12B vs. $9B consensus.
- Applied Materials projects Q4 EPS of $4.02 ± $0.20 vs. $3.68 consensus.
- Applied Materials projects Q4 revenue of $10.25B ± $500M vs. $9.54B consensus.
The reason AMAT is falling in spite of outstanding earnings is that earnings are below whisper numbers. Stocks move based on whisper numbers. Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts privately share with their best clients. Whisper numbers are often different from consensus numbers published by the same analysts for public consumption.
In The Arora Report analysis, Applied Materials business, accomplishments, and growth prospects are better now than they were when the stock was trading 32% higher. AMAT stock move and earnings expose a set of traps that are constantly set for gullible investors these days.
- Investing based on published consensus numbers is a trap.
- Investing based on a typical Wall Street call is a trap.
- Investing based on traditional fundamental analysis is a trap.
- Investing based on traditional technical analysis is a trap.
Here is what works these days:
- Segmented money flows including smart money flows and momo crowd flows
- Trajectory of whisper numbers
- Sentiment
- Innovative proprietary technical indicators
- Highly specialized market intelligence
- Forward looking analysis starting with the big picture
- Getting in core positions early
- Holding core positions through volatility
- Trade around positions to make tactical moves
As a member of The Arora Report, you are already ahead of the curve in following what works and avoiding the traps. Please click here to see how the unique ZYX Change Method with six screens gives you a big edge. The core AMAT position in The Arora Report Core Model Portfolio in ZYX Buy is long from an average of $16. Even after a 32% pullback, there is a gain of 4523%.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales are a bust. Here is the latest retail sales data.
- July headline retail sales came at -0.6% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- July retail sales ex-auto came at -0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.
Retail sales data will likely cause economists to revise GDP forecasts.
In the early trade, the momo crowd is oblivious to the retail sale bust, but prudent investors should pay attention. Here is the key question – will the stock market pay attention? The momo crowd will likely not pay attention, so it will come down to smart money.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7830 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.

DJIA futures are down 98 points.

Gold futures are at $4400, silver futures are at $65.21, and oil futures are at $81.24.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

SMART MONEY SELLS #1 DOW STOCK; APPLIED MATERIALS TO TELL AN IMPORTANT AI STORY; HIDDEN INFLATION IN PPI

Aug 13, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Important Earnings Ahead

Please click here for a chart of Cisco Systems stock (CSCO).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of CSCO stock is being used to illustrate the point.
Cisco is important because it is an example of a legacy company that has been rerated due to surging demand from AI data centers for its networking equipment.
The chart shows CSCO stock has surged about 50% this year. Cisco has been the number one stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average year to date.
The chart shows the drop after earnings. Here are the important insights from Cisco earnings for prudent investors:
- Cisco reported earnings and revenues better than consensus and whisper numbers. Cisco is also guiding earnings and revenues above consensus and whisper numbers.
- The momo crowd was aggressive buying CSCO stock ahead of earnings.
- Upon release of earnings, the momo crowd ran CSCO stock up to $134.23.
- Smart money sold into the strength. CSCO is trading at $115.70 as of this writing in the premarket.
- The commentary from Cisco is very positive and shows surging AI demand.
- Why would smart money sell into the strength on outstanding earnings? The reason smart money sold is because smart money digs deep and found the gross margin for the quarter was 66.3% vs. 68.4% last year.
- Wall Street is uniformly coming to Cisco’s defense and raising targets.
For prudent investors, Cisco earnings provide two important learning points:
- Smart money does not follow Wall Street’s widely published research. Smart money knows that anything that is widely published offers no edge.
- Smart money has its fingers on the trigger and is ready to act to protect profits in case the AI trade fizzles out. This is in contrast to the momo crowd that does not take risk into account.
In The Arora Report analysis, the foregoing behavior of smart money has much wider implications. Since smart money pays attention to the risk, smart money gets progressively richer by holding on to most of the profits. In contrast, the momo crowd rides the rollercoaster of making a lot of money when euphoria is raging and then loses it all when the inevitable pullback happens. The reference to the recent loss of 67% in the month of July by the fund Situational Awareness in spite of some risk controls is a case in point.
There is another important lesson for prudent investors from The Arora Report signals to buy CSCO at an average of $35.92. At the time of The Arora Report signal, investors hated CSCO stock, and the stock market left it for dead. By buying at that time, members of The Arora Report took very little risk. Now, CSCO stock is trading at $115.70 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 222%. In addition to the price gain, members of The Arora Report have all along been earning 4.68% dividend yield on the original buy price.
As a member of The Arora Report, you are already ahead of the curve by following the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band offers an easily actionable, data driven indicator that takes into account almost everything smart money does.
There is an extremely important earnings report after the market close today. The earnings report is from Applied Materials (AMAT). Applied Materials is one of the largest semiconductor equipment manufacturing company in the world. Applied Material’s earnings provide great insights into the sentiment among the managements of semiconductor companies.
As a full disclosure, members of The Arora Report are long AMAT from an average of $16. It is trading at $549.00 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 3331%.
One of the momo crowd’s favorite chip stocks has been Cerebras Systems (CBRS). Of note is that CBRS is down about 17% after reporting earnings.
Speculation is building that the Anthropic IPO will be larger than the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO.
Producer Price Index came cooler. Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
Prudent investors need to look below the headline of PPI. PPI ex-food, energy, and trade came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus. Note that this number is hotter.
Initial jobless claims came at 209K vs. 205K consensus.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and neutral Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7789 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.

DJIA futures are up 192 points.

Gold futures are at $4419, silver futures are at $65.34, and oil futures are at $81.21.

SUPER MICRO, LUMENTUM, AND COREWEAVE SHOW SURGING AI INFRASTRUCTURE DEMAND; CPI RELIEF BUT STAGFLATION

Aug 12, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Surging AI Infrastructure Demand

Please click here for a chart of Super Micro Computer stock (SMCI).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of SMCI stock is being used to illustrate surging AI infrastructure demand. Super Micro Computer manufacturers AI servers.
The chart shows SMCI stock has not done particularly well, and herein may lie the opportunity.
The chart shows the gap up after earnings.
Super Micro Computer’s revenue projections are eye popping. Here are the details:
- Super Micro Computer projects Q1 revenue of $14.5B – $15.5B vs. $12.09B consensus. Super Micro Computer is on fiscal year accounting.
- Super Micro Computer projects FY27 revenue of $65B – $72B vs. $53.29B consensus.
Long time members may recall that in the past The Arora Report had been very critical of Super Micro Computer, and there was a short position in ZYX Short. Those calls have proven spot on. Super Micro Computer has faced repeated accounting and financial reporting concerns. Delayed filings and its auditor’s resignation put its Nasdaq listing at risk. Delivery delays, low profit margins and export control charges against people linked to the company added further pressure, although Super Micro Computer itself was not charged. Now, the company seems to be on the mend, and there is a long position in ZYX Buy. History haunts Super Micro Computer, which may provide opportunity.
Adding to the positive sentiment in AI infrastructure as of this writing are good earnings from neocloud companies CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS). There are also good earnings from Lumentum (LITE). Lumentum makes optical components and lasers that are used in high speed AI data centers.
In The Arora Report analysis, the foregoing earnings are adding to the confidence of the bulls’ proposition that the demand for AI infrastructure is insatiable.
In The Arora Report analysis, in spite of insatiable demand right now, investors need to look ahead and be alert to early indications of overbuilding.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) came inline. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
Before concluding that inflation is moderating from the monthly numbers, investors should look at the yearly numbers. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 3.4% vs. 3.4% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 2.5% vs. 2.5% consensus.
The foregoing numbers are well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
In digging below the surface, falling energy prices contributed to inline CPI. However in the month of August, oil prices have risen again as there is no Iran resolution. If oil prices continue to stay high, CPI for August may go up.
Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET. PPI data is useful in projecting PCE. PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.
Prudent investors should note that Core PCE is hovering around 3.3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
In The Arora Report analysis, when this inflation data is combined with the weak jobs report that we shared with you on Friday, there is risk of stagflation.
In The Arora Report analysis, the risk of stagflation puts the Fed in a very difficult spot.
In the early trade, the stock market is ignoring economic risks and is mostly focused on surging AI infrastructure demand as outlined above.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 9.072M barrels vs. a draw of 0.5M barrels consensus.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7786 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.

DJIA futures are up 164 points.

Gold futures are at $4462, silver futures are at $66.77, and oil futures are at $83.48.

NVIDIA MASTERSTROKE TO TURN ITSELF INTO AN ASSET CLASS – RAISES RISKS AND REWARDS FOR INVESTORS

Aug 11, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Masterstroke Creates More Risk

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows NVDA stock touched the low band of zone 1 (resistance) and backed off.
The chart also shows zone 2 (support).
Prudent investors need to look ahead. For the entire stock market, not just for NVDA stock, NVDA stock breaking above zone 1 or breaking below zone 2 will be a major event.
Investors should carefully watch the reaction to Nvidia’s masterstroke to turn itself into an asset class. The next major event will be August 26 when Nvidia reports earnings after the close.
Nvidia is contending that compute is a new asset class. Six large Wall Street firms have bought into Nvidia’s proposition and have agreed to form “independent compute financing platforms” to invest about $500B in AI infrastructure.
Many in the media are characterizing this as circular financing. In The Arora Report analysis, such characterization is highly flawed. Under these arrangements, Nvidia will take some credit risk, but most of the financing will come from outside. This is much better than the circular financing Nvidia has engaged in in the past. Further in The Arora Report analysis, such arrangements should alleviate circularity concerns – the reality is opposite of what many in the media are saying.
In The Arora Report analysis, availability of easy financing will accelerate the AI buildout. This will be very positive for Nvidia. This will also be positive for memory suppliers Micron (MU), SK Hynix (SKHY), and SanDisk (SNDK) and also positive for networking suppliers such as Marvell (MRVL), Corning (GLW), Coherent (COHR), and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI). It is an open question how it will impact Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), and Arm (ARM).
We previously shared with you The Arora Report analysis of the deceptive nature of earnings growth headlines. The stock market has been running up on these deceptive headlines. The key question that will define the stock market to 2028 and beyond remains if this earnings growth is cyclical or secular. For those who want next level information about this important question that will determine how your portfolios perform, listen to the podcast titled “THE QUESTION THAT COULD DEFINE THE STOCK MARKET TO 2028 AND BEYOND” in Arora Ambassador Club.
In The Arora Report analysis, the availability of hundreds of billions of dollars of additional financing can clearly extend and amplify the earnings growth of Nvidia and other suppliers. The much bigger question remains unanswered – what will it do to the earnings of the companies buying all of this compute and ultimately paying for these data centers?
In The Arora Report analysis, in some ways, the additional financing makes the answer even more uncertain. It can sustain enormous AI infrastructure spending for longer before we know whether the ultimate buyers will generate sufficient economic returns to justify it.
Intel has successfully raised over $20B in a secondary offering priced at $95 per share. This is adding to positive sentiment.
As a full disclosure, members of The Arora Report have a core long position in INTC from an average of $19.05 for a gain of 412% and core long position in NVDA from an average of $12.55 for a gain of 1660% as of this writing in the premarket. There are also signals for trade around positions in NVDA and INTC in ZYX Buy.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released Thursday at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7789 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.

DJIA futures are up 62 points.

Gold futures are at $4423, silver futures are at $65.25, and oil futures are at $81.99.

FLAWED EARNINGS NARRATIVE DECEIVES INVESTORS; SPACEX SHORT SQUEEZE; INFLATION DATA AHEAD; TRUMP SHIFT

Aug 10, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deceptive Earnings Narrative

Please click here for a chart of SpaceX (SPCX).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of SPCX stock is being used to illustrate the point.
SPCX stock is important because it is creating positive speculative sentiment as of this writing.
The chart shows that when the media frenzy was at its peak to pump SPCX stock, SPCX stock topped out.
The chart shows that when media frenzy reached peak negativity, SPCX stock bottomed out.
Newer investors should pay special attention to the foregoing. In SPCX, a large number of bag holders have been created who went all in on the peak media pump and took huge losses by selling on the peak media negativity.
The chart shows a rally in SPCX stock as media negativity peaked around the lock-up expiration.
As an Arora Report member, you were ahead of the curve. On June 22, we wrote:

There is a fair probability that on August 6, SPCX stock could rally if a short squeeze starts, instead of falling big time as the media is predicting.

The chart shows heavy volume on short squeeze.
As a full disclosure, ZYX Change Alert members received a buy signal to capture the rally. Previously, ZYX Buy Change members also bought SPCX in the IPO at $135. A partial profit signal was given around $200, and stops were moved upwards to protect profits.
In the middle of the uber bullishness right now, prudent investors need to be very careful because the earnings narrative driving the uber bullishness is deceptive. The S&P 500 (SPX), as represented by SPY, has broken out on this deceptive earnings narrative. Here are the details:
- The headline: S&P 500 earnings growth for Q2 is about 50%
- Analyst consensus going into the quarter: about 23%
- The headline number is heavily distorted by extraordinary investment-related gains at Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN).
  - Alphabet reported about a $98 billion investment-related gain.
  - Amazon reported about $53 billion of other income, primarily related to investments including Anthropic.
  - These are not recurring operating earnings.
- After taking out the Alphabet and Amazon distortion, earnings growth falls to roughly 31% – 32%. This is still very strong, but nowhere near the 50% headline.
- This is a semiconductor supercycle. The open question is how long it will last.
- Semiconductor and semiconductor-equipment earnings are growing about 135%

- Strip out both the Alphabet and Amazon distortion and the semiconductor surge from headline earnings growth, and the underlying S&P 500 earnings growth is roughly 22% – 23%. This is still excellent, but less than half the headline number.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday and has the potential to move the markets.
President Trump is shifting from threatening attacks on Iran to using economic pressure as the main tool.
Oil is taking President Trump’s shift as an admission that Iran has the upper hand. For this reason, oil prices are rising. For the time being, the momo crowd is oblivious. However, if oil prices continue to rise, it will be negative for the stock market.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7776 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 8000, 7900; support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.

DJIA futures are down 84 points.

Gold futures are at $4389, silver futures are at $63.95, and oil futures are at $79.54.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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