By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
SMART MONEY CONCERNED BUT MOMO CROWD LOVES BIGGER BAND-AID FOR FOR U.S. DEBT, JACKSON HOLE TEST FOR WARSH
Aug 21, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Danger Zone
Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).
Note the following:
- As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. You have known about the danger zone shown on the chart for a while.
- The chart shows the TLT dipped in the danger zone.
- When The Arora Report first presented the danger zone, it was not known how spot on it would turn out. With the benefit of hindsight, we know that when TLT dipped in the danger zone, Treasury Secretary Bessent acted with an unprecedented move to increase the buyback of long dated securities. Please see the Morning Capsule from August 19 for details.
- The chart shows that TLT has now bounced out of the danger zone due to Bessent’s announcement.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the buyback of long dated securities is simply a band-aid for the $40T U.S. debt problem. A band-aid does nothing to fix the problem.
- The chart shows that there was an initial euphoria. The euphoria was entirely limited to the momo crowd that aggressively bought bonds and stocks on the news.
- The chart shows the initial euphoria has faded. In The Arora Report analysis, the reason the euphoria faded is that smart money sold into the strength generated by the momo crowd.
- Apparently concerned about smart money selling into the strength, Bessent is announcing that the $4B amount for the buyback may be the floor, not the ceiling. The buyback can be much larger than anticipated.
- In The Arora Report analysis, Bessent’s reaction is simply saying that he is going to put on a bigger band-aid. Further, in The Arora Report analysis, a bigger band-aid will do nothing to solve the $40T debt problem. Prudent investors need to discern that smart money and the momo crowd are reacting differently to this major move from the U.S. Treasury. Smart money is concerned because they understand that a buyback only temporarily restrains the move in the long bond. If inflation heats up, this move may simply make matters worse. On the flip side, as usual, the momo crowd is not thinking that far and is simply elated due to the short term upward momentum. So far, the biggest victim of the Treasury’s move is the king dollar. Foreigners have been selling the dollar after the announcement. A lower dollar can import inflation at a time when inflation is a big concern. U.S. consumers are addicted to cheap Chinese goods. A lower dollar means these goods become more expensive.
- As the momo crowd buys extremely aggressively, prudent investors need to make sure they have appropriate risk control measures in place. The Arora Report provides multiple layers of sophisticated risk control. Those who are heavily into the AI trade and are tempted to not have multiple layers of risk control just need to look at the blow up of the Situational Awareness fund. The fund lost 67% in July. Those interested in next level knowledge on this extremely important topic may consider listening to the podcast titled “BRUTAL MATH: WHY SMART MONEY USES 11 LAYERS OF RISK CONTROL PART 1.” The podcast is in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Now we know that the U.S. Treasury plans to use a bigger band-aid and do nothing fundamental towards the U.S. debt problem and risk significant adverse consequences in the long term. The question is what is the Fed going to do. Fed Chair Warsh will face a test in his speech at Jackson Hole next week. What Warsh says can have tremendous consequences for the markets and the U.S. economy both in the short term and the long term.
- Prudent investors need to be very mindful of the risks because the momo crowd is running amuck in the middle of mounting debt issues. At the same time, prudent investors need to make money from the upward momentum. The best way to make money and protect your portfolio at the same time is to follow the Arora Protection Band.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying as a vicious short squeeze continues.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7703 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.
DJIA futures are up 338 points.
Gold futures are at $4600, silver futures are at $69.50, and oil futures are at $86.98.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
WALMART MISS SIGNALS CONSUMER PULLBACK; TREASURY EUPHORIA FADES; SAMSUNG SOARS; BITCOIN SHORTS CRUSHED
Aug 20, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Weakening Consumer
Please click here for a chart of Walmart stock (WMT).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of WMT stock is being used to illustrate the point. Walmart is the largest U.S. retailer, and thus its earnings provide an important data point about the consumer. The consumer is important because the U.S. economy is about 70% consumer based.
- The chart shows WMT stock has fallen into zone 1 (support) after earnings.
- RSI on the chart shows WMT stock is not yet oversold.
- Walmart missed consensus and whisper numbers on projections. Here are the details:
- Walmart reported Q2 EPS of $0.81 vs. $0.74 consensus.
- Walmart reported Q2 revenue of $187.9B vs. $186.62B consensus.
- Walmart guides Q3 EPS of $0.62 – $0.64 vs. $0.68 consensus.
- As a full disclosure, WMT is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio long from an average of $19.25. Even after the pullback, WMT is trading at $107.54, representing a gain of 459%.
- In The Arora Report analysis, Walmart earnings reflect a weakening consumer. So far, the consumer has mostly continued to spend. The stock market advance has assumed the consumer will continue to spend. Walmart earnings are providing a contrary data point. This is putting pressure on the entire stock market in the early trade.
- Samsung stock (SSNLF) jumped about 9% in South Korea on speculation that Samsung will start a shareholder return program of about $72B. SK Hynix stock (SKHY) jumped about 12% in South Korea on speculation of more shareholder return programs. The South Korean Kospi Index jumped about 6%.
- Prudent investors should note a divergence this morning. Lately, the U.S. stock market, especially the semiconductor sector, has been following the South Korean market. However this morning, semiconductor stocks in the U.S. are coming under pressure due to rising yields. Even memory stocks Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) are not following South Korea’s lead.
- Yields are rising this morning as the euphoria from yesterday’s Treasury buyback announcement fades. Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.
- Also putting pressure on the stock market is rising oil. Oil is rising due to the U.A.E. deciding to suspend economic ties with Iran under U.S. pressure. The U.A.E., China, and Russia have been the three most important economic partners of Iran.
- Initial jobless claims came 206K vs. 206K consensus. This indicates employment is holding up.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
A vicious short squeeze started in bitcoin (BTC.USD) on yesterday’s Treasury announcement that was discussed in yesterday’s Morning Capsule. The bitcoin short squeeze took another leg up on a positive statement from President Trump.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7694 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.
DJIA futures are down 402 points.
Gold futures are at $4494, silver futures are at $66.69, and oil futures are at $86.81.
FIRST MRNA CANCER VACCINE SUCCEEDS, POSITION NOW FOR ROBOTS, MEMORY MAKER MOVES TO STEM STOCK SELLING
Aug 19, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Watch Arora Protection Band
Please click here for a chart of Moderna stock (MRNA).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MRNA stock is being used to illustrate the point that innovation is providing great opportunities for investors.
- The chart shows a very large move in MRNA stock.
- RSI on the chart shows MRNA stock is now very overbought.
- There is a major breakthrough in cancer treatment from Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK). Personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda met the key endpoints in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, significantly reducing recurrence and distant metastasis compared with Keytruda alone. This is the first positive Phase 3 trial for an mRNA based cancer therapy.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the significance goes well beyond melanoma. The results provide important validation of Moderna’s mRNA platform for treating cancer, potentially opening a large new opportunity beyond infectious disease vaccines. Moderna and Merck are already testing the approach across multiple cancers. Investors should note two potential catalysts ahead: detailed Phase 3 data and overall survival data.
- As a full disclosure, there are new signals on MRK and MRNA in ZYX Buy.
- In The Arora Report analysis, investors should start positioning for the coming humanoid robot boom. Humanoid robots require far more than AI processors. They need large amounts of analog semiconductor content for sensing, motor control, power management, battery management, safety, and real time connectivity.
- Analog Devices (ADI) is positioning itself across all of these critical functions and describes its technology as providing much of the robot’s physical interface and “nervous system” layer. ADI is in the Core Model Portfolio of ZYX Buy. Members of The Arora Report are long from an average of $83.25. ADI is trading at $382.00 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 359%.
- In The Arora Report analysis, ADI is an under the radar picks and shovels play on humanoid robots. ADI has pulled back about 15% from its June high, creating a better entry point for long term investors than chasing strength. However, ADI is still significantly above the Arora Buy Zone. Prudent investors should consider starting or adding to positions on major pullbacks by scaling in rather than buying all at once. Stay tuned to the Arora Buy Zone and Buy Now Rating.
- The South Korean stock market is important because lately the South Korean stock market has been leading the U.S. stock market, especially in memory stocks. The reason is that two of the three biggest memory makers SK Hynix (SKHY) and Samsung (SSNLF) are in South Korea.
- Overnight, the South Korean Kospi Index fell 6.39%, triggering a Sidecar mechanism. A Sidecar mechanism is a five minute suspension of program trading sell orders. The purpose is to slow down selling. Memory maker SK Hynix stock fell nearly 10%.
- SK Hynix quickly moved to calm the markets by announcing a $28B buyback. The move has triggered aggressive buying in semiconductors.
- Aggressive buying in stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, and silver has just been triggered by an unexpected announcement from the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. Treasury is doubling buyback support for long bonds. This is effective September 9, 2026 and will stay in force through November 4, 2026.
- In The Arora Report analysis, this is bullish for long duration bonds as it puts pressure on long term yields. Long term yields are dramatically falling after the announcement, and bonds are rising.
- Prudent investors should note that the Treasury announcement comes one day after the dramatic long bond sell off. In The Arora Report analysis, the U.S. government is once again stepping up to stop the markets from falling.
- Based on the Treasury announcement, our system has triggered lowering of the Arora Protection Band by deploying more cash and reducing more hedges. However, a formal change is not being implemented in the Arora Protection Band at this time for the following reasons:
- The weak seasonal period of September and October is ahead.
- Midterm elections are ahead. Historically, stocks tend to correct before the midterm election.
- The reaction so far may be outsized due to the unexpected nature of the news. We will be watching to see what the sustained reaction from the markets is, not just the immediate reaction.
- The FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET and may be market moving.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a draw of 0.328M barrels vs. a previous build of 9.072M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7748 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.
DJIA futures are up 329 points.
Gold futures are at $4436, silver futures are at $64.94, and oil futures are at $84.02.
U.S. DEBT TO $40T – SMART MONEY PAYING ATTENTION TO THE RISK BUT STOCK MARKET MOMO CROWD OBLIVIOUS
Aug 18, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
$40 Trillion Debt
Please click here for a chart of Home Depot stock (HD).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of HD stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The trendline on the chart shows HD stock has been in a downtrend. The reason has been persistently high interest rates.
- The chart shows HD stock is gapping up on earnings.
- Prudent investors should keep an eye if HD stock can break above the trendline shown on the chart. A break above the trendline will likely be a positive tell for the entire stock market. On the other hand, if the rally that is starting today fails, it will be a negative.
- Home Depot earnings are important because it is the largest home improvement retailer in the U.S. Its earnings give another important data point on the consumer picture. Consumers are important because the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.
- Home Depot earnings are better than consensus and whisper numbers. Here are the details:
- Home Depot reported EPS of $4.92 vs. $4.73 consensus.
- Home Depot reported Q2 revenue of $47.86B vs. $47.24B consensus.
- Home Depot guides FY27 earnings of $14.69 – $15.28 vs. $14.94 consensus.
- Home Depot guides FY27 revenue of $168.8B – $172.1B vs. $170.94B consensus.
- Alarm bells are ringing about the U.S. national debt. Smart money is paying attention, but the stock market momo crowd is oblivious. U.S. national debt is quickly approaching $40T. Troubling to smart money are the following:
- U.S. leaders do not have a plan to contain the debt.
- U.S. leaders are talking about measures that will increase the debt growth.
- Yields are rising. As of this writing, the 10 year Treasury yield is 4.736%, and the 30 year Treasury yield is 5.315%. The 30 year yield is the highest since 2007.
- Prudent investors should note that it is not only the U.S. Yields are rising across the globe. There are two reasons:
- Rising debt across the globe
- Concern that oil prices will rise further as the U.S. and Iran are in a stalemate
- In The Arora Report analysis, the rally in the AI trade that was triggered by the collapse of the $45B Situational Awareness fund that lost 67% in July is showing first signs of exhaustion.
- Memory stocks such as Micron (MU), SK Hynix (SKHY), and Sandisk (SNDK) have had an explosive rally over the last few days triggered by Sandisk’s investor day. In the early trade, memory stocks are pulling back.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Housing Starts
Rising interest rates are hurting housing. Here is the latest data:
- Housing starts came at 1.239M vs. 1.36M consensus.
- Building permits came at 1.443M vs. 1.39M consensus.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7732 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.
DJIA futures are down 54 points.
Gold futures are at $4419, silver futures are at $65.30, and oil futures are at $84.35.
PRUDENT INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION: ANTHROPIC 14X JUMP; CHINESE AI TARGETS NVIDIA’S MOAT; $3T AI COMMITMENTS
Aug 17, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
AI Gets Even Hotter
Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Note the following:
- The chart shows QQQ is approaching the low band of zone 1 (resistance).
- Of note is that S&P 500 has broken to new highs but Nasdaq 100 has not. In The Arora Report analysis, how the divergence between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 resolves will be important. The stock market is positioned for the divergence to be resolved by QQQ breaking to a new high.
- Think of market positioning at this time as everyone being on one side of the boat. The equivalent of a storm would be if the divergence is resolved by S&P 500 pulling back instead of Nasdaq 100 breaking out.
- The chart shows RSI is pulling back.
- Anthropic revenue increased 14x in Q2 from a year ago to $11.5B. This is generating significant buying in the AI trade in the premarket.
- On the flip side, a highly detailed report from The WSJ estimates that nine major tech companies have about $3T of off balance sheet commitments, mostly for AI infrastructure. Bears are hanging their hats on the $3 off balance sheet commitments. In The Arora Report analysis, these commitments are a double edged sword and not necessarily bearish. If demand meets or exceeds expectations, these commitments can drive tremendous growth for the nine companies and, in turn, drive the stock market much higher than you might think. If demand falls short of expectations, there will be overcapacity, and the stock market can easily correct 30% – 50%.
- Bears are also hanging their hats on a new Chinese AI system that can write and optimize CUDA code better than senior software engineers. CUDA is the software ecosystem from Nvidia (NVDA) that has been a big part of Nvidia’s moat. Some bears are going to the extreme, saying Nvidia is finished. In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should think of this development merely as a crack in Nvidia’s moat. In the near term, Nvidia will also benefit from AI models writing great CUDA code for Nvidia GPUs. However, in the longer term, there is a risk that AI can optimize software for chips from Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and others, posing a challenge to Nvidia.
- Nvidia appears to be partially backtracking on a guarantee for a $250B OpenAI data center.
- In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should note the foregoing as crosscurrents that are natural at this stage of the AI revolution. Many more developments are ahead – some will be positive for AI stocks while others will be negative.
- Tempering the aggressive buying by the momo crowd in the early trade is selling due to rising yields.
- The best way to handle all of the cross currents and make money from the upside while protecting portfolios from the downside is to follow the Arora Protection Band.
- Earnings from retailers Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), and Lowe’s (LOW) are ahead. This earnings will give a good picture of how the consumer is doing.
- FOMC minutes will be released on August 19.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7803 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.
DJIA futures are down 186 points.
Gold futures are at $4404, silver futures are at $65.35, and oil futures are at $83.04.
To take a free 30-day trial to paid services to gain access to more opportunities, please click here.
Markets can generate substantial wealth for knowledgeable investors. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 1% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 99%, INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND SIGNALS IN REAL TIME, TAKE A FREE
TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.
The Arora Report is one of the only major global investment newsletters that does not employ a single salesperson—because it does not need to. While competitors rely on high-pressure sales tactics, The Arora Report grows purely through results, with satisfied members recommending it to their family and friends.
Join the service that investors trust the most and recommend to family and friends.
Please click here to take advantage of a FREE 30 day trial.
Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

