By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.
Weakening Memory Demand
Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Note the following:
- The chart shows when retail sales were released.
- We wrote in the Morning Capsule:
Retail sales were stellar. Here are the details:
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October Retail Sales came at 1.3% vs. 0.9% consensus.
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Retail Sales ex-auto came at 1.3% vs. 0.6% consensus.
- The inference from strong retail sales is that the Fed is going to have to keep on increasing rates even though the Fed is likely to slow down the rate hikes because of the massive rate hikes done so far. This flies in the face of the momo crowd’s recent aggressive buying of stocks.
- The chart shows when the news from Micron (MU) was released. Micron is a maker of semiconductor memory. The news was that Micron is projecting weakness.
- The use of memory is pervasive across the economy. Memory is used across the economy in everything from cell phones to personal computers to autos to appliances.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the inference from Micron projections is that weakness has yet to come into various sectors of the economy. If such a weakness materializes, it will mean lower earnings. We have been sharing with you our analysis that Wall Street earnings estimates are too high.
- The chart shows the negative impact of the Micron news.
- As a full disclosure, earlier today The Arora Report gave a signal to take profits on tactical semiconductor positions.
- The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
- The VUD indicator is mostly orange, indicating net supply of stocks.
Money Flows
The momo crowd money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial).
Smart money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒.
Short squeeze money flows are 🔒.
A Special Note To New Subscribers
Note the smart money behavior. Smart money tends to sell into strength on strong up days.
New subscribers should consider adopting smart money’s way of investing and trading.
Sentiment
Sentiment is 🔒.
Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes. In plain English, this means that when sentiment becomes extremely positive it is time to sell and when sentiment becomes extremely negative it is time to buy.
Close
There appear to be sell on close orders.
There is merit to watching the pattern of market on close orders as they represent the day’s dominant net cumulative activity by many professionals and funds.
Gold
The momo crowd money flows in gold are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.
Smart money flows are 🔒 in gold since the Morning Capsule.
Oil
The momo crowd money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.
Smart money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.
Buy Zones And Buy Now Ratings
🔒
Nibbling
🔒
This post was published yesterday in The Arora Report paid services. Since then the Morning Capsule has had an update in the paid services.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
