SELLING IN ASIA ON WAR RISK CARRIES TO U.S. STOCKS

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

War Risk

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF () which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 ().

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the market fell below the support zone and then came back to close near the resistance zone.  This is positive.
  • The come back was the biggest come back since 2008.
  • The chart shows that volume was very heavy.  This is positive.
  • The chart shows that RSI has not turned up.  This is negative.
  • After yesterday’s close, the consensus was for a follow through to the upside this morning.
  • Last evening, futures in Asia opened lower on concerns about the war risk between Russia and the U.S. on Ukraine.
  • Selling in Asia has carried over to U.S. stocks this morning.
  • Earnings reported after the close and this morning are mixed.
  •  earnings will be reported after the market close.
  • The Fed meeting has started.  The Fed will announce its policy tomorrow at 2:00 pm ET.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial)  stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1843, silver futures are at $23.73, and oil futures are $83.68.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are4400, 4460, and 4600: support levels are 4318, 4200, and 4000.

 futures are down 248 points.

Protection Bands and What To Do Now?

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 🔒 in cash or treasury bills or short-term bond funds or allocated to short-term tactical trades, and short to medium-term hedges of 🔒, and short term hedges of 🔒. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

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This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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