WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: BARN BURNER U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA

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(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.)

BARN BURNER U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA

December 7, 2012

In a barn burner development November non-farm payrolls came at 146K vs 90K consensus and 80K whisper number; non-farm private payrolls came at 147K vs 120K consensus and 100K whisper number.

Unemployment rate fell to 7.7% vs consensus of 8%.

This is another in a series of data that shows the U.S. employment is slowly and gradually improving.

If it was not for the fiscal cliff situation, this data would have easily caused DJIA to move up 300 + points.

Gold futures are at $1684, silver futures are at $32.87, and oil futures are $88.55.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1424, 1439, and 1444; support levels are 1415, 1410, and 1400.

DJIA futures are down 58 points.

ECB KEEPS POLICY STEADY

December 6, 2012

ECB holds benchmark rate at 0.75%.

Bank of England keeps policy steady despite dimmer outlook.

In the U.S. unemployment claims came at 370K vs 382K consensus.  The data continues to show that employment picture in the United States is improving.

The stock market will react to rumors and statements regarding the resolution of fiscal cliff.

Gold futures are at $1687, silver futures are at $33.66, and oil futures are $88.54.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1410, 1415, and 1424; support levels are 1400, 1380, and 1368.

DJIA futures are down 9 points.

SHANGHAI UP STRONGLY ON XI’S INITIATION OF REFORMS

December 5,m 2012

Shanghai stock market has responded positively to initiation of new reforms by the new leader Xi Jinping.  He has issued new regulations to root out the superfluous that consumes much time in China’s bureaucracy.  The new rules discourage flowers at the meeting, ribbon cutting ceremonies, hanging banners, long speeches, and a litany of other similar measures.   The markets throughout the world are encouraged by a big jump in Shanghai.

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In the U.S. ADP employment change came at 118K vs 125K consensus; Q3 unit labor costs revised -1.9% vs -0.8% consensus; Q3 productivity revised +2.9% vs +2.7% consensus.

Gold futures are at $1698, silver futures are at $32.94, and oil futures are $90.34.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1410, 1415, and 1424; support levels are 1400, 1380, and 1368.

DJIA futures are up 31 points.

GOLD BREAKS WITH THE DOLLAR

December 4, 2012

Traditionally gold has exhibited an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar. In other words, if the dollar goes higher, gold goes lower and vise versa.
Today gold and silver are breaking the inverse relationship with the dollar. The dollar is lower and gold has fallen to support at $1700.

As expected, no Smart Money selling is being seen as Smart Money typically does not sell in this range but sells only when gold goes higher. However, the momo crowd is usually a strong buyer in this range. Interestingly not much buying from the momo crowd is being seen this morning even though gold and silver have fallen to major support levels.

Has the momo crowd simply run out of cash to buy gold and silver? This question is of paramount importance in determining the future direction of gold and silver in the medium-term. We will be carefully monitoring the hard data from gold and silver trading from across the world to determine an answer.

Gold futures are at $1701, silver futures are at $33.05, and oil futures are $89.92.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1410, 1415, and 1424; support levels are 1400, 1380, and 1368.

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DJIA futures are up 16 points.

BETTER THAN EXPECTED PMI NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD

December 3, 2012

Economy is getting better across the globe as shown by just released Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) numbers.

In China, Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 from 50.2.  A number over 50 indicates economic expansion.

Euro zone, PMI came at 46.2 meeting expectations.

Most notable was Spain’s PMI of 45.3 ahead of expectations of 44.

If it was not for the fiscal cliff issue, the stock market today in the  United States would have had the potential to go up 200 – 300 points in the DJIA. However the fiscal cliff issue is a reality and the posturing by the two sides shows that they are far apart.

Gold futures are at $1716, silver futures are at $33.64, and oil futures are $91.41.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1424, 1439, and 1444; support levels are 1415, 1410, and 1400.

DJIA futures are up 52 points.

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