Yesterday in the Morning Capsule we had informed you that markets were acting as though Scotland would reject independence.  In Scotland, 55% of voters have said ‘no’ to independence.

A big part of the stock rise here is related to option expiration. It is worth noting that often such rise reverses the week after option expiration.

Stocks are also buoyed by BABA IPO  that will start trading around 10:30 – 11:00 am ET.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.

Interest rates and oil are pulling back after the vote in Scotland.

Our very, very short-term early market indicators are positive.

Gold futures are at $1226, silver futures are at $18.47, and oil futures are $92.63.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2025; support levels are 2017, 2000, and 1975.

DJIA futures are up 66 points.

The Fed did not change its policy statement but the under tone is more hawkish than the consensus.  Gold listened and fell out of bed.  Bonds listened and fell.  Stocks did not listen and continued to party on.

Independence vote is underway in Scotland.  Even though opinion polls are too  close to call, currency and stock markets are acting as though a ‘no’ vote is likely.

Our very, very short-term early market indicators are mildly positive.

Gold futures are at $1221, silver futures are at $18.38, and oil futures are $21.84.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2017; support levels are 1975, 1950, and 1925.

DJIA futures are up 42 points.

In yesterday’s morning capsule, we shared with you the importance of a two-word phrase in the Fed policy statement.  Around 11:30 am yesterday there was a rumor that the phrase would stay in the Fed statement.

Stocks and gold rallied, and dollar fell on the rumor.  Of note is the inconsistency in bonds which did not react to the rumor.  As the day passed, dollar gained some of its earlier losses on the rumor but stocks and gold maintained gains.

The Fed statement will be released at 2:00 pm ET followed by a press conference at 2:30 pm.  If the phrase is not in the statement, expect stocks and gold to fall.

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came at 0.0% vs. 0.2% consensus.

Our very, very short-term early market indicators are neutral.

Gold futures are at $1237, silver futures are at $18.67, and oil futures are $94.59.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2017; support levels are 1975, 1950, and 1925.

DJIA futures are down 1 points.

The Fed is starting its two-day meeting.  We will know the results tomorrow afternoon.  The Fed has included the phrase ‘considerable time’ to describe how long interest rates will remain low in its previous policy statements. What the Fed does with this phrase in the policy statement released tomorrow may lead to a significant melt up or melt down.  Tomorrow will be a time to stay alert.  Today is the time for investors to take stock of their portfolios and make sure they are comfortable in either event.  As a guideline, if there is a melt up it is likely to be in the range of 3% to 5%; if there is a melt down it is likely to be in the range of 5% to 9%.

Our very, very short-term early indicators have a slight negative bias.

Gold is experiencing a dead cat bounce.

Oil and interest rates are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1236, silver futures are at $18.69, and oil futures are $91.74.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2000 and 2017; support levels are 1975, 1950, and 1925.

DJIA futures are down 36 points.

Industrial Production for August falls by 0.1% vs. consensus of increase by 0.3%.  This is one more piece of data that does not jive with most of the other economic data.  We will be keeping a close watch.

Our very, very short-term early market indicators are neutral.

In spite of more tension in Ukraine, oil is falling.

Gold is staging a dead cat bounce.

Interest rates are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1234, silver futures are at $18.64, and oil futures are $91.67.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2000 and 2017; support levels are 1975, 1950, and 1925.

DJIA futures are up 7 points.