(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
BRITAIN GDP JUMPS TO PRE CRISIS LEVEL, U.S. GDP HEADING THE SAME WAY-10% RISE IN STOCKS AND DROP IN GOLD
July 25, 2014
Great Britain GDP jumped 3.1% in the second quarter year over year. This is the highest quarterly jump since 2007.
Leading economic indicators that we monitor show that there is a high probability of the U.S. GDP jumping to about 3% . If interest rates do not rise, such jump in GDP may be preceded by 10% rise in stocks and fall in gold. If interest rates rise with better economic growth, as is traditionally the case, then after initial rise there may be a severe correction or even a bear market. Unfortunately traditional models will not work because of massive influence of the unusual policy of the Fed. There is no precedence of interest rate rise after a massive monetary stimulus of the last few years. Therefore the risks are high in this stock market and for those not driven by greed but by astuteness, a defensive posture makes the most sense especially since the market is overbought.
Oil is falling.
Gold is trying to stage a rally but meeting resistance.
Interest rates are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1295, silver futures are at $20.52, and oil futures are $101.47.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2000 and 2017; support levels are 1975, 1950 and 1935.
DJIA futures are down 25 points.
GOLD FALLS UNDER $1300 AFTER CHINA PMI HITS 18 MONTH HIGH
July 24, 2014
The HSBC/Market Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 52 vs. 51 consensus. After the PMI number came, aggressive selling was seen in gold in China.
In pre market, stocks have a positive tone.
Oil and interest rates are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1298, silver futures are at $20.91, and oil futures are $103.89.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2000 and 2017; support levels are 1975, 1950, and 1920.
DJIA futures are up 34 points.
FLATTISH OPEN FOR STOCKS AFTER TWO MORE PLANES SHOT DOWN IN UKRAINE
July 23, 2014
Flattish open for stocks in the U.S. after two military planes have been shot down in Ukraine.
Oil, gold and bonds are range bound in quiet trading.
After a contentious election in Indonesia, the country has a new President.
Overall earnings since yesterday’s morning capsule are roughly in line with expectations.
Gold futures are at $1306, silver futures are at $20.99, and oil futures are $103.89.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2000 and 2017; support levels are 1975, 1950, and 1920.
DJIA futures are up 15 points.
RUSSIAN MARKET LEADS STOCKS HIGHER, GOLD VOLATILE
July 22, 2014
RTS Index is up 2.6%. Stocks in Europe are strong. In early trading in the U.S. stocks are moderately higher.
Core CPI came at 0.1% vs. consensus of 0.2%.
Most new earnings releases are in line.
Gold is volatile. It fell to $1302 and then inexplicably flew to $1316.
Gold futures are at $1310, silver futures are at $20.98, and oil futures are $104.73.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2000 and 2017 ; support levels are 1950, 1925 and 1900 .
DJIA futures are up 52 points.
OPTIONS REVERSAL AND PROSPECTS OF FURTHER SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE THE DRIVERS
July 21, 2014
Friday was the option expiration day. Part of the gains Friday are likely attributable to option expiration. Such gains tend to reverse on Monday. Stocks are weak in the early trade.
Oil, gold and bonds are higher on the prospect of further sanctions on Russia.
Earnings this morning are mostly in line.
Gold futures are at $1316, silver futures are at $21.06, and oil futures are $103.42.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1950, 1975 and 2000 ; support levels are 1925, 1900 and 1875 .
DJIA futures are down 41 points.
