(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.)
EXPECT STOCKS, BONDS AND GOLD TO MOVE ON CYPRUS RUMORS
March 22, 2013
Friday’s are especially vulnerable to rumors. Expect stocks, bonds and gold to move on rumors related to Cyprus.
Stock market continues to be overbought. Aggressive buying should be avoided. We will continue to recommend select buying and select profit taking.
The momo crowd has tried to run up gold as they should have in the wake of the Cyprus crisis, but Smart Money keeps selling gold on up-spikes. For this reason, there is no change in our ratings on gold and silver.
Gold futures are at $1605, silver futures are at $28.60, and oil futures are $92.84.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1550, 1558, and 1565; support levels are 1537, 1530, and 1517.
DJIA futures are up 38 points.
MONDAY IS THE DEADLINE FOR CYPRUS
March 21, 2013
The ECB has set Monday as the deadline for Cyprus to finalize the bailout pact. So far the market has ignored the Cyprus issue, but caution is warranted.
If the markets get hit substantially, it will be a buying opportunity.
Gold futures are at $1612, silver futures are at $29.15, and oil futures are $93.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1558, 1565, and 1570; support levels are 1537, 1530, and 1517.
DJIA futures are down 12 points.
BULLS IN CONTROL AHEAD OF THE FED ANNOUNCEMENT
March 20, 2013
Bulls are firmly in control of the stock market, oil, and gold ahead of the Fed announcement. Bears are in control of the bond market this morning.
At the conclusion of a two FOMC meeting, at 2:00 PM ET we will learn Fed’s rate decision and economic forecast. At 2:30 PM ET there will be a press conference with Bernanke.
Our expectations are that Bernanke will be dovish. Please stay tuned this afternoon in case there aer opportunities arising out of the Fed.
Gold futures are at $1607, silver futures are at $28.82, and oil futures are $93.01.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1558, 1565, and 1570; support levels are 1537, 1530, and 1517.
DJIA futures are up 73 points.
HOUSING IMPROVES, GOLD TRYING TO HOLD SUPPORT
March 19, 2013
The data released this morning shows that U. S. housing is continuing to improve. February Housing Starts came at 917K vs. 910K consensus. February Building Permits came a 946K vs. 925K consensus.
Gold is trying to hold support at $1600.
Crisis in Cyprus continues, but the stock market bulls are not deterred. The bulls are likely to take another stab at running the S&P 500 towards 1565, however, they are likely to meet with aggressive selling. Lets see which side prevails, it will be very instructive.
Gold futures are at $1600, silver futures are at $28.65, and oil futures are $93.70.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1558, 1565, and 1570; support levels are 1537, 1530, and 1517.
DJIA futures are up 18 points.
STICK IN THE EYE OF DEPOSITORS IN CYPRUS, STOCKS DOWN GOLD UP
March 18, 2013
The part of the bailout package for Cyprus is a one time tax on private bank deposits. The tax rate will be 6.75% on all bank deposits under 100,000 euros and 9.9% on deposits over 100,000 euros. The parliament of Cyprus is yet the pass the plan. A bank holiday has been declared to prevent a run on banks.
Interestingly, the contagion is not spreading at this time to two big vulnerable countries, Spain and Italy.
Stock markets in Milan and Madrid are fairly resilient. FTSE Mib in Italy falls only 2%. Ibex in Spain falls only 1.9%.
Fall in Tokyo illustrates the dangers of overbought markets. Nikkei 225 fell 2.7% even though there is no prospect of a bank run in Japan.
DJIA futures were down 125 points but have now recovered to down 76 points.
Gold and silver are rising, as they should. Gold has broken through the resistance at $1600.
Gold futures are at $1606, silver futures are at $28.90, and oil futures are $92.40.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1550, 1558, and 1565; support levels are 1537, 1530, and 1517.
DJIA futures are down 72 points.
