WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: BUYING OPPORTUNITIES – WILL THE ‘MOTHER OF SUPPORT ZONES’ IN THE STOCK MARKET HOLD? $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: BUYING OPPORTUNITIES - WILL THE 'MOTHER OF SUPPORT ZONES' IN THE STOCK MARKET HOLD? $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

INVESTORS: DON’T BE FOOLED BY THE BUYING IN THE STOCK MARKET DUE TO DUBIOUS OIL SURGE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Crude Oil Surge And Jobs Report

At this time when coronavirus cases have topped one million, stock market investors are trying to figure out what is next for the market. The analysis of the stock market just became more complicated due to huge moves in crude oil. There is a strong correlation between crude oil and the stock market. If that was not enough, there are anomalies in the jobs report.

Under these circumstances, it is important for investors to figure out what really matters and what does not. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for an annotated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Please click here for an annotated chart of crude oil futures (CL_F). Investors who are not comfortable with oil futures may look at oil ETF (USO).

Note the following:

  • The first chat is a monthly chart to give investors a long term perspective.
  • The second chart is a 15 minute chart to give investors a very short term perspective.
  • The stock market was showing all of the telltale signs of falling and testing the old lows when President Trump stated that Saudi Arabia and Russia would cut 15 million barrels in crude production as shown on the second chart.
  • There was first a report from Russia of denial of any deal and then a report from Saudi Arabia stating that Trump had exaggerated.
  • The second chart shows oil retreated on the reports from Russia and Saudi Arabia.
  • The oil would have retreated more if it was not for the media continuing to tout Trump’s statement without giving due exposure to the reports from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
  • The second chart shows that oil was retreating further when the news came of an OPEC plus Russia meeting.
  • The second chart shows aggressive buying in oil by the momo (momentum) crowd on the news.
  • The stock market futures were substantially down on coronavirus cases crossing one million but were pulled up by a very strong up move in oil.
  • The first chart shows that The Arora Report called for a stock market drop on January 22, 2020 and subsequently repeated it on January 30, 2020. The Arora Report long term portfolios were up to 57% protected when popular stock market index S&P 500 (SPX) topped on February 19, 2020 and the portfolio protection was rapidly increased up to 86%.
  • The first chart shows that RSI is nowhere near the last major bottom. This indicates that there is room for the stock market to fall further.
  • The first chart shows ‘mother of support zones’ for the stock market.
  • The first chart shows that the stock market touched the top band of the mother of support zones and subsequently rebounded to the low end of the top support/resistance zone shown on the chart. Such behavior is common and was to be expected.
  • The jobs report showed March private non-farm payrolls fell 713K vs. a consensus of a fall of 250K. There are several anomalies here. Investor should consider ignoring this jobs report just like the prior initial jobless claims report.

Dubious Surge

Crude oil surge is somewhat dubious because the demand for crude oil has fallen off the cliff due to coronavirus shut downs.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd was selling stocks earlier in the morning but started aggressively buying stocks later as crude oil continued to surge.  So far this morning, smart money has been lightly selling on up spikes.

Gold

The momo crowd has been buying gold.  Gold is staying comfortably above $1,600 even though the dollar is stronger. Gold is inversely related to the dollar.   Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

Marijuana has no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity.

Technical Patterns

Singapore stocks are tracing a flag.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest is EWS.

Hong Kong stocks are tracing a flag.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest is EWH.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can easily swing positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are mixed.

The dollar is  stronger.

Gold futures are at $1635, silver futures are at $14.55, and oil futures are $27.49.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 2520, 2600 and 2636: support levels are 2443, 2417 and 2380.

DJIA futures are down 117 points

STOCK INVESTORS: IGNORE JOBLESS CLAIMS; FOCUS ON THIS EARLY WARNING INDICATOR INSTEAD

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims came at 6.648 million vs. 2.8 million consensus.

In general, stock market investors should pay attention to jobless claims. In normal times for the stock market, jobless claims carry heavy weight in our ZYX Asset Allocation Model. There are two reasons for stock market investors to pay attention to jobless claims. First it is a leading indicator. Second it is released on a weekly basis; many economic indicators that impact the stock market are released on a monthly basis. Due to coronavirus shutdown, jobless claims numbers are shocking but they are already discounted in the stock market.

Our call in the prior week was also to ignore jobless claims that week because they were already discounted in the stock market. After the really bad jobless claims number was released, the overhang of the potential bad news was lifted from the stock market. Typically when the overhang over the stock market is lifted, the stock market rallies. This is exactly what happened in the prior week.

This week, once again, investors should ignore the shocking jobless claims. This week there is no overhang to lift because the jobless claims are roughly in line with the consensus. Instead investors should consider focusing on this early warning indicator. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for an annotated chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) which represents the popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Please click here for an annotated chart of high yield bond ETF (HYG). High yield bonds are also called junk bonds. Another popular junk bond ETF trades under the symbol (JNK).

Note the following:

  • The first chart of the stock market is a monthly chart giving investors a long term perspective.
  • The second chart of junk bonds is a day chart giving investors a short term perspective.
  • The first chart shows ‘mother of all support zones’ for the stock market.
  • The mother of all support zones shown on the first chart for the stock market should be the main focus of all stock market investors.
  • The second chart shows the drop in the prices of junk bonds as the coronavirus dislocation spread across the markets.
  • The second chart shows countertrend rally in high yield bonds.
  • The second chart shows support and resistance levels for the high yield bonds.

Early Warning Indicator

The second chart is your early warning indicator for four reasons.

  • In a recession, junk bonds tend to perform more like stocks.
  • In my over 30 years in the markets, I have consistently experienced that credit analysts tend to be more accurate than the stock market analysts.
  • There is a high probability that junk bonds will break the support shown on the second chart before the stock market breaks the mother of support zones if coronavirus situation worsens. I have previously written that the mother of support zones has an 80% probability of holding.
  • If the junk bonds break above the resistance shown on the second chart, that will be an early indication that the coronavirus situation is getting better.

Semiconductor stocks have been leading indicators for the stock market. For this reason, it is important to watch semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU). It is also important to watch large-cap technology stocks such as Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Protection Bands

Even though the stock market has rallied from the lows, there has been no all-clear signal. As we have previously written, the sharpest rallies occur in bear markets. Rallies of about 20% are to be expected. In this coronavirus-influenced stock market, it is important that investors use an objective framework of protection bands before buying stocks.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd was aggressively buying stocks earlier in the morning.  After the jobless claims were released, the momo crowd aggressively sold stocks on the shockingly high number.  As of this writing, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks again.

Earlier in the morning when the momo crowd was aggressively buying stocks, smart money sold into the strength.  Smart money is inactive since the jobless claims report.

Gold

Gold has managed to finally rally over  $1,600.  On a fundamental basis, this shockingly high jobless claims number is good for gold.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil rose about 10% on Trump’s comment that Saudi Russia dispute can be resolved.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money active in marijuana.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can easily and quickly swing positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are tick up.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1621, silver futures are at $14.54, and oil futures are $22.24.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 2520, 2600 and 2636: support levels are 2443, 2417 and 2380.

DJIA futures are up 16  points

‘PAINFUL TWO WEEKS’, TRUMP SAYS – WILL THE ‘MOTHER OF SUPPORT ZONES’ IN THE STOCK MARKET HOLD?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Stop Nibbling

Stop nibbling if S&P 500 futures fall below 2443.  Futures are trading at 2484 as of this writing.

Two Painful Weeks

Trump says, “This is going to be a painful two weeks”. The stock market falls on Trump’s comments. However the same stock market previously went up when Dr. Fauci said 200,000 American deaths could happen. The stock market is complex – sentiment, positioning, technicals, short squeezes and other shenanigans tend to overrule the facts. Here is the key question for investors, ‘Will the ‘mother of support zones’ in the stock market hold? Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for an annotated chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) that represents popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) that represents popular stock market index S&P 500 index (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The first chart is a monthly chart to give investors a long term perspective.
  • The second chart is a day chart to give investors a short term perspective.
  • The first chart shows the mother of support zones for the stock market.
  • The first chart shows that the stock market touched the mother of support zones and then rallied above the top band of the upper support zone.
  • I have previously written that the rally was likely to fail.
  • I have previously written that the mother of support zones had an 80% probability of holding.
  • The first chart shows that the Arora call as early as January 22, 2020 was that an external event such as the coronavirus could cause a drop in the stock market. Subsequently on January 30, 2020 when I wrote that greed and arrogance was driving the stock market higher, I temporarily retreated from my usual polite words to get investor’s attention to the stupidity of aggressively buying at that time. Did investors listen? Some did but most did not as they kept on buying aggressively leading to a high in the stock market on February 19, 2020.
  • The chart shows that Arora long term portfolios were up to 57% protected at the market top and the protection was rapidly increased to 86%.
  • The chart shows Arora signals to buy inverse ETF (SQQQ) and to short sell Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) near the top of the stock market and taking profits near the bottom before the rally gained steam. Not shown on the chart is an Arora signal taking advantage of the rally to initiate new short term positions in inverse ETF SQQQ and short selling Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
  • The second chart compares S&P 500 ETF SPY to semiconductor ETF (SMH) and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
  • It is important to note the top four holdings of QQQ are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB). The top four holdings of ETF SMH are Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC), NVIDIA (NVDA) and ASML Holding (ASML). The reason it is important to note the top holdings of these ETFs is because investors are hiding in them and similar stocks.
  • There is merit to hiding in the stocks names above because these companies have solid balance sheets and are likely to recover quickly.

What Is Next For The Stock Market?

The eventual stock market outcome, in large part, will come down to if the strategy of hiding in stocks such as those named above works for investors in these stocks or if these investors will throw in the towel. Investors should evaluate this on a daily basis using segmented money flows as one of the best clues at this time.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Attempts to rally gold above $1,600 have failed so far.

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API reported  crude oil inventory build of 2.485M barrels vs. consensus of a build of 4M barrels.  This data is very bearish.

EIA data that is considered more authoritative will be released at 10:30 am ET.

Trump is talking to Saudi and Russian and that is creating optimism.

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1598, silver futures are at $14.10, and oil futures are 20.54.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 2520, 2600 and  2636: support levels are  2443, 2417 and  2380.

DJIA futures are down 732 points

IDIOTIC MOMO CROWD BUYING ACROSS THE GLOBE ON CHINESE PMI DATA

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Idiotic Buying

Earlier today idiotic momo crowd buying occurred in Asia followed by Europe and then in the United States futures market.

I am always respectful of whatever people chose to do but this buying was totally idiotic.  Smart money took advantage and sold into the strength. The trigger for the buying was release of Manufacturing PMI in China. It is important to understand what PMI really is. It is simply a survey of purchasing managers. A number below 50 indicates economic contraction and a number above 50 indicates economic expansion.  It is a leading indicator and under normal circumstances carries heavy weight in our models.

Chinese PMI came at 52 vs. consensus of 45.  PMI last month was 35. Under normal circumstances, such a major rise in PMI would have been a good reason to celebrate and aggressively buy stocks.  However this time, to anybody who is paying attention, it should have been obvious that this data is false.

China is a communist country. Communist party controls everything.  Further everything is controlled from the top down.  China has been forcing people to go to work because they want to show the world that China is returning to normal.  Traditionally, even influential billionaires disappear when they cross the Chinese communist party in the slightest.  Purchasing managers are typically middle level bureaucrats in China.  At this time, would any sane person expect these purchasing managers to say in a survey that things were not getting better?

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Smart money slammed the momo crowd by heavily selling when the momo crowd was buying earlier in the morning. When the momentum reversed on smart money selling, the momo crowd switched and started selling.  As a result futures fell from nice gains. As of this writing, the momo crowd is again buying based on the old news of potential vaccine from JNJ and coronavirus test from ABT.  Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule.

Gold

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in gold. The Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The moomo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in marijuana due to mixed earnings from and .  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can easily swing either way.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1625, silver futures are at $14.26, and oil futures are $21.00.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 2635 and 2680: support levels 2580, 2560 and  2463.

DJIA futures are down 82 points

200,000 DEATHS, TRUMP RELENTS; WHERE IS THE STOCK MARKET BOTTOM? SHOULD YOU BUY OR SELL?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

200,000 Deaths

Dr. Fauci says there may be 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths due to coronavirus.

The stock market is discounting (assuming) less than 25,000 deaths.

The 80% probability of the ‘mother of support’ zones holding that we have been sharing with you is based on the model at The Arora Report that is assuming 100,000 – 150,000 deaths.

Trump Relents

Trump has relented on opening the country by Easter.  He has extended social distancing to April 30.

Science May Triumph

At one time futures were down 4%.  A lot of buying is coming in on potential good news on the science front.

We all want coronavirus to end. It is the government’s job to spin the reality to keep the morale of the country up. It is the prudent investor’s job to discern the truth. Science may triumph and cause the stock market to bottom.

The key questions are: where is the bottom in the stock market? Should you buy or sell stocks? Let’s examine with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • Take a look at the last bar shown on the chart. After touching the top band of mother of support zones, the stock market has moved above the top band of the support/resistance zone. From a technical perspective this shows significant optimism in the face of worsening coronavirus news.
  • The chart shows that RSI is nowhere near the level shown at the last major bottom. This indicates that there is significant risk in this market that investors are underappreciating.
  • The chart shows Arora call on January 22, 2019 that coronavirus could cause problems for the stock market. This call was made at a time when investors were very optimistic and running up the stock market. This call was repeated on January 30 and many times again while S&P 500 index (SPX) was on its way to make a new high on February 19th.
  • Before you send me hate mail, it is well known that when Dow Jones was in 16,000 range, I was calling for Dow to reach 30,000 and repeated the call several times. At that time nobody was talking about such a high target. As a matter of fact most of the calls were for the stock market to go down.
  • When Dow Jones Industrial Average almost reached 30,000, most of the calls in the stock market were for Dow to reach 35,000 and 40,000. I never raised my target. It was not because I knew coronavirus would come along, but because our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in 10 categories was keeping us very cautious. This is the same model that called 2008 crash and gave a buy signal at the bottom in March 2009.

Where Is The Bottom?

The mother of support zones has 80% probability of holding – this along with RSI should be the main reference points to look for a bottom. There is simply too much optimism in the stock market and in many cases investors are buying without doing research. Here are a few examples:

  • Abbott Laboratories (ABT) has come up with a coronavirus test that takes five minutes. The revenues from coronavirus test will dwarf against the revenues Abbott is likely to lose due to issues related to coronavirus. Investors are running up the stock.
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is making great progress on a coronavirus vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is likely to sell the vaccine at cost. This will have no material increase in earnings yet investors are running up the stock.
  • General Motors (GM) will make ventilators. General Motors is selling them at cost. Again this will have no impact on earnings yet investors have run up the stock on the news.
  • Medtronic (MDT) makes ventilators but ventilators are a very small portion of its business. At the same time, Medtronic is suffering because its sales are likely to drop due to postponement of none essential surgeries. Without understanding the whole picture investors have run up the stock.

The foregoing shows that there is simply too much optimism and investors are buying without doing research. In my over 30 years, I have never seen a bottom when investors behave this way.

Should You Buy Or Sell

Please see the protection bands in the What To Do Now section below. First determine where you belong in the protection band and then look at securities that have come into the buy zone. We provide further tactical guidance in separate posts on when to nibble and when to stop nibbling.

Based on the reaction of the market to the bad news, it is fine to nibble again.  On Friday our call was to stop nibbling because of the risk of the weekend.  Note that the tactical direction changes very frequently but strategic direction does not change very often.  Please see prior posts to learn the difference between strategy and tactics.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is selling gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive gold.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is selling oil in the early trade.  Smart money is lightly buying oil.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can swing wildly either way.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1643, silver futures are at $14.17, and oil futures are $20.12.

S&P 500 futures resistance level is 2600: support levels are  2463, 2417 and  2380.

DJIA futures are up 230 points

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 34% – 44% and short to medium-term hedges of  3% – 15% and short term hedges of 8% – 20%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

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This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. BigCommerce (BIGC) is a software as a service company that helps businesses easily ...

A BEARISH PATTERN IN THE STOCK MARKET — THIS ALSO HAPPENED BEFORE THE LAST BIG TECH CRASH $AAPL $AMZN $DIA $DJIA $DOCU $FB $FSLY $PTON $QQQ $SPX $SPY $SQ $TSLA $ZM

The stock market has traced what’s called a negative reversal pattern, which reminds me of March 2000. In the year 2000, ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: SILVER ON THE VERGE OF A BREAKOUT, MOMO BUYING UNDETERRED, BEARISH DATA ON CRUDE OIL $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

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