(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.)
CHINA GROWTH LOWEST IN THREE YEARS
July 13, 2012
Chinese GDP growth fell to 7.6%, its lowest in about three years. The number is in line with expectations.
Moody’s lowered Italy by two notches. As expected, European markets responded by going up.
Expect a lot of short covering today.
Gold futures are at $1581, silver futures are at $27.36, and oil futures are $86.95.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1339, 1348, and 1352; support levels are 1330, 1324, and 1312.
DJIA futures are up 36 points.
BULLS DISAPPOINTED ON NO QE3
July 12, 2012
Yesterday morning we wrote that FOMC minutes can be a market moving event. There was not a hint of QE3 in the minutes. Bulls are disappointed.
Those, including us, who have been carefully following the Fed for years and leaving their own opinion at the door, did not expect QE3 in yesterday’s minutes. However, a large number of market participants have difficulty leaving their opinions at the door and clearly reading what the Fed has been saying.
Our projections are not closing the door on QE3 in the future.
Gold futures are at $1559, silver futures are at $26.50, and oil futures are $84.92.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1330, 1339, and 1348; support levels are 1324, 1312, and 1300.
DJIA futures are down 66 points.
FOMC MINUTES MAY MOVE THE MARKET
July 11, 2012
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes from the last meeting at 2:00 pm ET. FOMC minutes are often a market moving event.
This morning there is more optimism in the markets from news that Spain is taking further austerity measures. Spain plans to increase value added tax to 21% from 18%, rationalize local governments, and reduce unemployment benefits.
Yesterday morning we wrote that the optimism was misplaced. The U.S. stock market was up 94 points then proceeded to drop over 100 points. Today it is somewhat different in that the news from Spain is not fully discounted in the markets.
Gold futures are at $1576, silver futures are at $27.05, and oil futures are $85.04.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1339, 1348, and 1352; support levels are 1330, 1324, and 1312.
DJIA futures are up 32 points.
MISPLACED OPTIMISM OVER SPANISH DEAL AND CHINA DATA
July 10, 2012
There is optimism in the markets over the Spanish deal and China data.
In our analysis the optimism is misplaced.
Eurozone finance ministers reached a deal that will send first 30 billion euros to Spain by the end of July. In our view this is not a new news and was expected.
In China exports rose 11.3%, down from earlier pace of 15.3%. Imports rose 6.3% down from earlier pace of 12.7%. In our view the data from China shows that it is slowing faster than most expectations.
Gold futures are at $1594, silver futures are at $27.36, and oil futures are $85.27.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1352, 1358, and 1368; support levels are 1348, 1339, and 1330.
DJIA futures are up 27 points.
EARNINGS SEASON FULL OF OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD
July 9, 2012
The big aluminum producer AA kicks off the earnings season when it reports earnings after the market close. Earnings season is always full of opportunities and pitfalls. Like always we will attempt to take full advantage of the opportunities arising from 3000 U.S. stocks that we follow.
Spanish bond yields again hit 7% leading to falling stocks in Europe.
Inflation is China slows to 2.2% in June.
Gold futures are at $1586, silver futures are at $27.25, and oil futures are $84.87.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1352, 1358, and 1368; support levels are 1339, 1330, and 1324.
DJIA futures are down 34 points.
