(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.)
GOLD AND SILVER INVESTORS TAKE NOTE: CORE PPI FALLS
October 12, 2012
Core PPI is a leading indicator of future inflation. Core PPI falls to 0.0% vs 0.2% consensus.
The trend in leading indicators of inflation continues to be down. The data over the recent months show is disinflationary.
Gold and silver are traditionally hedges against inflation; disinflation is traditionally bad for gold and silver however trading data shows that gold and silver continue to be under control of momo investors who tend to buy on news of low inflation and sell on the news of high inflation. The bazaar behavior continues. Both gold and silver ticked up on the news of lower than expected inflation.
Gold futures are at $1770, silver futures are at $33.90, and oil futures are $92.33.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1439, 1444, and 1450; support levels are 1424, 1415, and 1410.
DJIA futures are up 24 points.
THE U.S. EMPLOYMENT PICTURE IS GETTING BETTER
October 11, 2012
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came at 339K vs. 370K consensus. This is a leading indicator with heavy weight in our models.
Stock market is at support and over sold in the very, very short-term. An oversold bounce is likely, but the question is how long will it last.
Gold futures are at $1767, silver futures are at $34.10, and oil futures are $92.48.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1439, 1444, and 1450; support levels are 1424, 1415, and 1410.
DJIA futures are up 52 points.
QUIET MORNING AHEAD OF BARRAGE OF EARNINGS
October 10, 2012
In the first major earnings report of the season, AA lowered projections for global aluminum demand and blamed China.
It is a quiet morning ahead of a barrage of earnings. Any news from the IMF meeting in Japan may move the markets.
Gold futures are at $1769, silver futures are at $33.96, and oil futures are $92.47.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1439, 1444, and 1450; support levels are 1424, 1415, and 1410.
DJIA futures are down 23 points.
NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE FOR DEPOSITORS
October 9, 2012
If you want to keep your money denominated in Swiss francs or Danish kroner in the Bank of New York, you will have to pay the bank interest in stead of receiving interest. This is a real life example that all is not well with the world economy.
IMF lowers growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% for 2012.
Earnings season kicks off after the close with AA and YUM reporting.
S&P 500 companies are expected to report revenue decline of 0.6% to 0.8%.
Since cost cutting has already run its course, it is a reasonable inference that earnings will also decline by about 0.6%.
Four out of five earnings pre-announcements have been negative.
The point of the foregoing is that there is high risk in the markets.
Gold futures are at $1779, silver futures are at $34.08, and oil futures are $90.48.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1465, 1472, and 1480; support levels are 1444, 1439, and 1424.
DJIA futures are up 25 points.
START OF THE QUARTER MONEY EXHAUSTED
October 8, 2012
The money that pours into the markets at the start of the new quarter has now been invested. Unless there is a new trigger to propel the markets upward expect at least a shallow pull back.
Wall Street likes Romney. If the polls start showing Romney in the lead, it will be a trigger for another up-leg.
Gold futures are at $1771, silver futures are at $33.87, and oil futures are $88.50.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1465, 1472, and 1480; support levels are 1444, 1439, and 1424.
DJIA futures are down 45 points.
