(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
GOLD APPROACHES RESISTANCE AT $1320 AFTER BAD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NUMBERS
February 14, 2014
January Industrial Production fell to -0.3% compared to consensus of +0.3%; Capacity Utilization for January came at 78.5% vs. consensus of 79.3%. These are very bad numbers.
Gold is encouraged by these bad numbers and now is approaching the resistance of $1320 to $1325.
Oil is falling on these numbers so are interest rates.
In early trading stocks are mildly negative.
Gold futures are at $1318, silver futures are at $21.16, and oil futures are $99.77.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1837, 1850, and 1900; support levels are 1800, 1775, and 1766.
DJIA futures are down 26 points.
DISAPPOINTING RETAIL SALES
February 13, 2014
Retail Sales for January came at -0.4% vs. 0.0% consensus; the only silver lining is that ex-auto Retail Sales for January were 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.
Stock futures dropped on release of the disappointing number and at one point DJIA futures were down over 100 points. Now, in early trading, stock futures are trying to make a mild recovery.
Interest rates are falling on disappointing sales.
Gold tried to stage a rally on disappointing sales but met with heavy resistance.
Oil after falling under $100 is now trying to stage a rally again.
Gold futures are at $1294, silver futures are at $20.24, and oil futures are $100.02.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1825, 1837, and 1850; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are down 100 points.
STOCK MARKET LIKES HOUSE VOTE ON DEBT LIMIT AND YELLEN
February 12, 2014
Yesterday’s rally was mostly a short covering rally. The market liked that Yellen explicitly stated that she plans to continue Bernanke’s policies. A bigger positive was anticipation that Republicans in the House would defy the right-wing and vote for a clean debt ceiling raise. The expectation came through later in the day.
Now that most of the immediate short covering is behind us, how the market performs will be a good tell.
Gold is meeting resistance around $1290 to $1300.
Oil is trading over $100.
Interest rates are mostly unchanged.
Gold futures are at $1291, silver futures are at $20.22, and oil futures are $101.07.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1825, 1837, and 1850; support levels are 1800, 1775, and 1766.
DJIA futures are up 19 points.
NO SURPRISE IN YELLEN PREPARED REMARKS, WAITING FOR Q&A
February 11, 2014
There are no surprises in Yellen’s prepared remarks. In Q&A, there may be some new information that moves the markets. If there is new information we will do a new post.
Interest rates are slightly higher because Yellen did not address the last two weak labor reports.
Gold and silver are dipping for the same reason.
Stocks are trying to stage a rally but having a difficult time of it in the pre-market.
Gold futures are at $1277, silver futures are at $20., and oil futures are $100.32.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1825, 1837, and 1850; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are up 32 points.
GOLD JUMPS AHEAD OF YELLEN TESTIMONY
February 10, 2014
The new Fed Chair Janet Yellen will give her first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony tomorrow. Gold is jumping ahead of her testimony. Gold bulls obviously believe that she will be a big time dove and will taper the taper.
Our analysis is that she will be a dove but not likely to taper the taper. Instead she may announce a broader criteria on which the monetary policy will be based in addition to the employment data.
Stocks are at a key technical juncture. The short-term direction will depend on rumors about Fed policy.
Gold futures are at $1275, silver futures are at $20.21, and oil futures are $100.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1800, 1825, and 1837; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are down 7 points.
