(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
AMERICAN CONSUMERS KEEP ON SPENDING
American economy is the largest in the world, 70% of the economy is consumer oriented. For this reason, Retail Sales x-auto carry a heavy weight in our models. We exclude autos because auto sales are very volatile and can confuse our algorithms.
Retail Sales x-auto came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus. Prior month Retail Sales x-auto were revised to 0.0% from -0.2%.
WTI oil has broken the major support at $75.
Interest rates spiked on good retail sales but are now pulling back as European money is coming in to buy bonds.
Most of gold’s dead cat bounce is over. How gold behaves now will be a tell.
Gold futures are at $1149, silver futures are at $15.62, and oil futures are $74.76.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2038, 2063, and 2100; support levels are 2017, 2000, and 1975.
DJIA futures are up 9 points.
TOKYO HITS 7 YEAR HIGH, CHINA INVESTMENT GROWTH AT 13 YEAR LOW
The world has become very interconnected. Events in one corner can have significant influence in another corner. Overnight stocks in Tokyo hit a seven-year high; in early trade both European and the U. S. stock markets are taking encouragement from Tokyo.
S&P 500 futures have broken the resistance at 2038 and have traded as high as 2044.
Good earnings from Wal-Mart, the largest retailer in the world, are making the positive sentiment even more positive.
We normally talk about West Texas Intermediate oil, which is the bench mark for the United States. The bench mark for the rest of the world is Brent oil. Brent had been holding over $80, but has this morning broken the support.
Interest rates are inching up in early trade.
Our very, very early morning stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1161, silver futures are at $15.69, and oil futures are $76.32.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2063 and 2100; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.
DJIA futures are up 13 points.
GOLD LENDING RATE TURNS NEGATIVE, BOTH DOLLAR AND YEN GO UP
Gold lending rate has turned negative on a weekly basis for the three-month forward contract. This means that dealers are paid to lend gold against cash. Three of the last four times, this has happened, gold has turned up. If this persists, our very, very short-term rating on gold will change, please stay tuned.
In a rare move in recent days, both dollar and yen are going up against other currencies.
Bond market was closed yesterday. As the bond market opened this morning, Smart Money is heavily selling bonds.
Oil is range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.
Gold futures are at $1165, silver futures are at $15.61, and oil futures are $77.27.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2038, 2063, and 2100; support levels are 2017, 2000, and 1975.
DJIA futures are down 74 points.
A TIME TO HONOR THOSE WHO SERVED, JAPANESE STOCKS ROCKET
Today is Veterans Day, it is time to take a moment and honor those who have served. The bond market is closed but other markets are actively trading.
Overnight Japanese stocks surged.
Oil has given up the dead cat bounce.
Gold has retraced a big part of its dead cat bounce.
With bond market closed, indications on interest rates are suspect.
Our very, very short-term early market indicator is mild negative.
Gold futures are at $1153, silver futures are at $15.55, and oil futures are $77.49.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2038, 2063, and 2100; support levels are 2017, 2000, and 1975.
DJIA futures are up 18 points.
ALL QUIET FOR A CHANGE
For a change, most markets are quiet. There is no significant market moving economic data.
Stock markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong and surging on announcement of the date for Hong Kong-Shanghai link to start.
Italy’s Industrial Production fell 0.9% vs. consensus of 0.2%.
Gold is pulling back from its dead cat bounce Friday.
Oil is trying to stage a rally.
Interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1167, silver futures are at $15.63, and oil futures are $79.27.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2038, 2063, and 2100; support levels are 2017, 2000, and 1975.
DJIA futures are up 19 points.
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