Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.
GOLDILOCKS JOBS REPORT, SAMSUNG NEWS SHOWS MOMENTUM HAS OVERTAKEN THE STOCK MARKET
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
The Goldilocks Jobs Report
Non-farm Private Payrolls came at 182K vs. 160K consensus. This is a Goldilocks number. On one hand it is not too hot for the Fed to raise rates. On the other hand it alleviates fears of a recession.
Momentum Overtakes Fundamentals
Momentum has totally overtaken fundamentals in the stock market. Here is an example to illustrate the point. Samsung (SSNLF) is one of the largest semiconductor manufacturers in the world, especially memory. Samsung just confirmed that its profits have dropped 60% due to slowing semiconductor sales and especially data memory. There have been many data points showing the same thing. However, semiconductor stocks have been the leaders of this stock market. Recently Micron (MU), a big memory manufacturer, announced terrible earnings but the stock ran up on optimistic comments by the management without any data. Micron management has always been positive and at one point the stock lost about one-half of its value.
In early trade, semiconductor stocks are running up in spite of Samsung news.
The conjecture is that semiconductor slow down has bottomed. But the same conjecture caused the stocks to start running up three months ago. Now more time has gone by without any support from the data.
In summary, momentum and sentiment have almost completely taken over the stock market and fundamentals are being totally ignored.
The momo crowd can run stocks up higher than you would think. The problem is that momentum can also quickly reverse as was witnessed in the last quarter of 2018. Under these circumstances, please pay attention to the ‘What To Do Now’ section below — it is simply a measure of prudence.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
Trading in gold is listless. There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity.
Oil
The momo crowd is buying oil. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
There is optimism on ACB and APHA getting cultivation licenses for medical marijuana in Germany. The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn negative.
Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.
Currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1290, silver futures are at $15.07, and oil futures are $62.22.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.
DJIA futures are up 94 points.
JOBLESS CLAIMS PLUNGE TO 49 YEAR LOW, GERMAN FACTORY ORDERS FALL, MOMO BUYS ON TRADE OPTIMISM
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims have plunged to a 49 year low. Initial Claims came a 202K vs. 217K consensus.
Wait For Jobs Report
Monthly Jobs Report, also known as the mother of all numbers, will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 am. The market is positioned for a bullish number. If the number turns out to be weak, there is significant risk to the stock market due to bullish positioning by Wall Street.
German Factory Orders
There is another significant negative piece of data from Germany. Factory Orders came at -4.2% vs. +0.3% consensus.
India
Reserve Bank of India cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 6%. This was expected.
India Services PMI came at 52.0 vs. 52.5 consensus.
Optimism Over Trade Talks
There is significant optimism over trade talks. China’s Vice Premier, Liu He, will meet with President Trump in the White House.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
Gold is getting hit on a stronger dollar. The momo crowd is selling gold. Smart money is inactive.
Oil
The momo crowd is buying oil. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
Early trade in marijuana stocks is listless. There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral and can easily swing either way.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is stronger.
Gold futures are at $1288, silver futures are at $14.94, and oil futures are $62.64.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.
DJIA futures are up 8 points.
WEAK JOBS DATA BUT BULLS IGNORE AS THEY BUY ONE MORE TIME ON TRADE TALKS
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Weak Jobs Data
ADP Employment Change came at 129K vs. 178K consensus. This is a very weak number. In theory, the stock rally should have paused on this weak report. However, bulls are totally ignoring it for the time being.
Trade Talks
The momo crowd is buying stocks on a report that the trade deal is 90% done. China’s Vice Premiere is back in Washington.
China
Caixin Services PMI came at 54.4 vs. 52.3 consensus. This is adding to the argument that greens shoots are emerging in China.
Eurozone
February Retail Sales came at 0.4% vs. 0.2% consensus.
Germany’s Services PMI came at 55.4 vs. 52.7 consensus.
This data is giving credence to the argument that Europe may have already bottomed. You may recall that previously economic data from Europe had been signaling a potential recession.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks. The smart money is inactive.
Gold
Trading in gold is listless with no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in the early trade.
Oil
Oil is continuing its bull run. It has broken over $62 level.
API data showed a build of 3M barrels vs. 425K barrel draw consensus. This is very bearish data for oil but the momo crowd does not care.
The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil. The smart money is inactive.
EIA data will be released at 10:30 am ET.
Marijuana
New York governor wants marijuana legalized by June.
Trading in marijuana stocks is listless. There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in the early trade.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn negative.
Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.
Currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1295, silver futures are at $15.04, and oil futures are $62.48.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.
DJIA futures are up 110 points.
BOND RALLY HAMPERS STOCK MARKET ADVANCE, DURABLE GOODS, LARGEST U. S. MARIJUANA BUYOUT
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Bond Rally Hampers Stock Market Advance
The rally in the bond market is hampering stock market advance. New quarter money will continue to pour in helping stocks.
Golden Cross
There is a lot of buying in stocks after the golden cross. Please see the post from yesterday. To see the chart click here.
Durable Goods
Durable Goods Ex-transports came at +0.1% vs. +0.2% consensus. This is a very volatile series of data. We leave out transports because they are even more volatile and hinder predictions.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is buying stocks. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
Yesterday the momo crowd was buying gold. Today the momo crowd is selling gold. Smart money is inactive.
Oil
Yesterday the momo crowd was aggressively buying oil. In the early trade the momo crowd is lightly selling oil. The smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
There is optimism after the largest public company buyout in the history of U. S. marijuana industry. In a $825 million deal, Cresco Labs (CRLBF) is exchanging 0.8428 of its shares for Origin House (ORHOF).
The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks. Smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are rallying.
Currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1293, silver futures are at $14.94, and oil futures are $61.77.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.
DJIA futures are down 29 points.
NEW QUARTER MONEY, BULLISH CHINA DATA, WEAK RETAIL SALES, OIL MOVE
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
New Quarter Money
New quarter money is set to pour in the stock market today and continue through tomorrow. There is buying in advance on expectations of the money pouring in.
Bullish Data From China
The Caixin China manufacturing PMI came at 50.8 vs. 49.9 consensus.
This is generating significant optimism among investors.
Weak Retail Sales
February Retail Sales Ex-auto came at -0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus. This is a very weak number and would normally be worrisome. However the January number was revised to +1.4% from +0.9%. This indicates consumer behavior is becoming more volatile instead of the normal American consumer behavior of spend and spend.
Turkey
President Erdogan suffered setbacks in local elections in big cities. Turkish lira has been volatile.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
The momo crowd is buying gold. Smart money is inactive.
Oil
The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks. Smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.
Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.
Currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1300, silver futures are at $15.17, and oil futures are $60.70.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2840, 2800 and 2765.
DJIA futures are up 212 points.
WHAT TO DO NOW
Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 19% – 31% and short to medium-term hedges of 5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5%.
A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.
Please click here to take advantage of a FREE 30 day trial.
Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.
