WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: HIGH ANXIETY AMONG STOCK MARKET INVESTORS — HERE IS HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

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WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: HIGH ANXIETY AMONG STOCK MARKET INVESTORS — HERE IS HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

POTENTIAL SCHOOL CLOSING, NO CLASSIC SIGNS OF A BOTTOM BUT POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT SQUEEZE LED SNAPBACK RALLY RISING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Potential School Closings

As of this writing, significant selling is coming into the market on the rumor that the White House Acting Chief Of Staff Mulvaney has said that there will “probably” be some school closures due to coronavirus.

No Classic Signs Of A Bottom

On Christmas Eve 2018, when panic was setting in the stock market and most analysts were giving sell signals, The Arora Report was the only one giving a clear buy signal.  Christmas Eve 2018 turned out to be the bottom.  The buy signal was based on our ZYX Asset Allocation Model, our other sophisticated algorithms and classic signs of a bottom.

As of this writing, there are no classic signs of a bottom.  ZYX Asset Allocation Model is not giving a clear buy signal. However one of our algorithms that deals with short squeezes is giving a mild buy signal.  The concept is that short sellers have significant profits.  As the day progresses, those who are long the market may want to sell because they do not want exposure to bad news over the weekend.  Similarly, short sellers may want to buy to cover because they do not want exposure to ‘No further bad news’ over the weekend.  If a short squeeze starts, short sellers tend to be extremely aggressive buyers.  If the momentum reverses on a short squeeze, the momo crowd will start buying on momentum reversal. These are the makings of sharp snapback rally.

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday is ahead.  The stock market loves Trump and fears Sanders.  If Sanders scores a big victory on Super Tuesday, that may become another negative factor in the stock market.

Don’t Be A Hero

This is not the time to be a hero by aggressive buying or by aggressive short selling.  Those who decide to take some actions may want to keep quantities small.  Please pay attention to ‘What To Do Now’ section below.

Buy Zones

Yesterday a post titled,  SIGNAL: MARKET PROBABILITIES, EXERCISE PRUDENCE WITH BUY ZONES AS THE MARKET DROPS was published in ZYX Buy, ZYX Global and ZYX Emerging.  Consider revisiting the post if you are looking at buying.

Emergency Fed Rate Cut

There are numerous calls for the Fed to do an emergency rate cut this weekend. We cannot predict what Trump will do but he may put more pressure on Powell this weekend.  If the Fed acts, there can be a sharp snapback rally.

Rally Failure

If coronavirus news gets worse, any rally will likely fail.

Support Zones

We have previously published major  support zones.  The first major support zone is broken in the pre-market.  The next support zone is DJIA 21,800 to 23,500.  The point is there is air underneath this market and the major support is still far away.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.  Smart money is lightly buying gold.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can quickly reverse to positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is slightly lower.

Gold futures are at $1527, silver futures are at $17.17, and oil futures are $45.27.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2950, 2983 and 3026; support levels are 2900, 2888 and 2864.

DJIA futures are down 588 points.

AS CORONAVIRUS SPREADS, ALL PRUDENT INVESTORS SHOULD LOOK AT THESE FOUR CHARTS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Coronavirus Spreads

As coronavirus spreads, most investors seem to be in the mode of buying the dip.

Buying the dip has worked over the last decade. The reason has been money printing by the Federal Reserve and other central banks combined with brainwashing of investors; more on brainwashing later. Investors are simply suffering from the recency bias.

Why not just buy the dip? Is there even any point to analysis because the prevailing wisdom is that the stock market always goes up and pullbacks are brief? What if you have not drank the Kool-aide of the prevailing wisdom and are aware that the prevailing wisdom may turn out to be wrong going forward? Prudent investors ought to pay careful attention to four charts.

Four charts

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 2007 to 2020.

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1960’s to 1980’s.

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average from early 1900’s to mid-1900’s.

Please click here for a chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index (NIK).

For the sake of full transparency, these charts have been previously published and no changes have been made.

Note the following:

  • The first chart shows the raging bull market since March 2009 when The Arora Report gave a major buy signal after being in cash, inverse ETFs and short positions since 2007.
  • The first chart shows three support zones that deserve investors’ attention.
  • During this period of the raging bull market, the market leaders have been large-cap tech stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL).
  • During the present bull market, semiconductors have often been the early indicators. Semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), NVDIA (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) that have been leading the rally are now being crushed.
  • The second and third chart show that there have been periods in the U. S. stock market, when depending upon your starting point, passive investing would have not done well. The charts are of Dow Jones Industrial Average but the conclusions also apply to the present day popular ETFs such as S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and small cap ETF (IWM).
  • Leaders of the past bull markets have not been the leaders of this bull market.
  • Contrary to investors’ deep belief in stocks such as Facebook (FB) and Salesforce (CRM) along with Apple and Google, these stocks may not be the market leaders in the next bull market.
  • If a bear market arrives, stocks such as Tesla (TSLA) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) tend to get crushed.
  • The fourth chart shows that if you were passively investing in Japan over 25 years ago, you would still be underwater.
See also  NVIDIA AND GAMMA SQUEEZE OVERPOWER HOTTER INFLATION DATA

The recency bias

Human condition as it is, most of us suffer from the recency bias. The recency bias simply means that people remember what has happened recently. Investors erroneously believe what has happened recently will happen in the future.

Do you really know with certainty that the next decade or two will be similar to the past decade or two?

The touted data

Investors cannot be blamed for being inadvertently brainwashed. Investors are constantly bombarded with the touted data such as

  • The average return over the last 100 years has been absolutely fantastic.
  • The average return over the last 10 years has been great.
  • The stock market has never lost money over a certain period of time.

The flaw

By accepting the touted data, you are saying that you know that the next 10 – 50 years will be similar to the last 10 – 50 years.

Over the last century, the U. S. has been the dominate power. The article linked above shows that the U. S. is about to lose the top rank.

Should you be driving mostly looking through the rear view mirror or should you be looking forward?

Brainwashing

Investors have been brainwashed into believing that if they invest in the stock market or other markets, somehow they earn the right to make money over a period of time.

Millions of investors have convinced themselves that somehow the market owes them something; all they have to do is invest in the markets.

Consider paying attention to Arora’s Fourth Law of Investing: The markets owe you nothing.

Do not attack the messenger

Since I have often written minority opinions over a long period of time, I fully understand why investors get upset when their beliefs are challenged. I am merely being a messenger — I have no say in how the economic landscape of the world is going to change. Wouldn’t it be better for investors to pause and challenge their own beliefs by taking a look at what is likely to happen going forward and stop focusing so much on what has happened in the past?

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is selling gold.  Smart money is buying gold.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can quickly swing positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar  is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1653, silver futures are at $18.02, and oil futures are $46.44.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3100, 3125 and 3143; support levels are 3050, 3020 and 2950.

DJIA futures are down 423 points.

HEAVY BUYING BY PERCENTAGE BUYERS; THE #1 MISTAKE INVESTORS ARE MAKING NOW – HERE IS HOW TO AVOID IT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Coronavirus

Coronavirus spread in China seems to be slowing.  However the data coming out of China is unreliable.

Coronavirus spread outside of China seems to be expanding.

Percentage Buyers

There was heavy buying yesterday morning and throughout the day by percentage buyers.  These buyers are buying simply because the stock market has fallen by a certain percentage.  This morning heavy buying by percentage buyers continues.

The #1 Mistake

The number one mistake investors are making now in the wake of coronavirus stems from investors imposing an artificial construct of their making on the true nature of the stock market. The two simply do not work well together. Before stating this number one mistake that investors are making in the stock market now in plain English and describing how to avoid it, let’s first build the necessary background so that you can fully comprehend and avoid the mistake with help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for an annotated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), which tracks the Dow (DJIA).

Click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Similar conclusions can be drawn from Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

For the sake of full transparency, both of these charts were previously published and no changes have been made.

Note the following:

  • The first chart shows Arora buy signal on Christmas Eve 2018. At that time the stock market had fallen about 20%. Now with hindsight, Christmas Eve 2018 has turned out to be the low before a major rise in the stock market. However on the day of Christmas Eve 2018, panic was setting in and most analysts were giving sell signals. Arora buy signal was totally contrary.
  • The second chart is an older chart contemporaneous to the Arora buy signal at the precise market low. This chart drills down in detail on the subject that is most important to investors right now to avoid making the number one mistake that many investors are making.
  • The second chart shows that when the market first fell, Arora call was that it was not likely the low. At that time the stock market had fallen by a certain percentage that was prompting many investors to buy stocks.
  • After the first low the stock market staged a rally. As shown on the second chart, when it fell again, many investors who missed buying the previous time were buying again because the stock market had fallen by a certain percentage.
  • The second chart shows that at the time of the second fall in the stock market, the Arora call was that it was not the likely low.
  • Subsequently, there was a significant further fall in the stock market that led to the Arora buy signal at the very low.
  • The first chart shows three support zones. For more details of these support zones and other important items related to the first chart.
See also  HOTTER INFLATION – MOMO BUYS THE BAD NEWS, JP MORGAN CEO SAYS RECESSION NOT ‘OFF THE TABLE’

The Artificial Construct

The artificial construct that investors employ is the concept of percentages. Recently investors bought when the market fell 5%. Some held out until their favorite stocks such as AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU) fell 7% only to find them fall much further. Some aim to buy at a 10% fall in the stock market.

The stock market does not know percentages. Percentages are simply an artificial construct that is leading investors to make the number one mistake they are making now – buying the stock market or their favorite stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) when they fall by a certain percentage.

How To Avoid The Number One Mistake

Instead of using percentages, carefully read the Morning Capsule and Afternoon Capsule. Carefully read What To Do Now section in the Morning or Afternoon Capsules; consider making changes as specified. Those who are subscribers to ZYX Buy and ZYX Short watch short term trades on ETFs. For example when we initiated a trade on inverse ETF SQQQ, the expectation was for the market to go down. Watch the buy zones for individual stocks and ETFs.

Those who want to dig in deeper on their own consider doing some of the following:

  • Clear your mind of the artificial construct of percentages.
  • Get your emotions in neutral.
  • Focus on listening to the message that the market typically sends loud and clear. Most investors are not able to hear this message because they are too caught up in percentages, emotions and opinions.
  • At The Arora Report, we use the proven adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in 10 categories and a variety of sophisticated algorithms. However, investors can do well even without a proven sophisticated model.
  • Consider paying attention to support zones shown on the first chart.
  • Consider paying attention to price action on intraday charts.
  • Watch put/call ratios on indexes.
  • Watch put/call ratios on popular stocks such as NVIDIA (NVDA), Intel (INTC) and Facebook (FB) along with other large-cap stocks.
  • Watch the price action in speculative stocks that are crowd’s favorites such as Tesla (TSLA), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), Enphase (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG).
  • Watch the price action and put/call ratios in stocks that are adversely affected by coronavirus such as United Airlines (UAL), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Expedia (EXPE) and Bookings (PCLN).
  • Watch China travel stock Trip.com Group (TCOM).
  • Watch casinos with presence in China such as Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).
  • Watch makers of protective gear such as Alpha Pro Tech (APT) and Lakeland Industries (LAKE).
  • Watch stocks of companies that may have a vaccine or a cure such as Gilead (GILD), Moderna (MRNA), Vir Biotechnology (VIR) and Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO).
  • Watch the volume for a washout.
  • Watch for the sentiment to become extremely negative.
  • Listen to the statements by Fed officials.
  • Watch actions of People’s Bank of China.
  • Watch patterns traced by RSI especially divergences as shown on the charts linked above.

Instead of percentages simply tune in to at least some of the items above and let them guide you.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd aggressively sold gold yesterday after the momentum reversed. The momentum reversed because of a bearish technical pattern.

Smart money is lightly buying gold.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil has broken support at $50.  API data was bullish.  API came at a build of 1.3M barrels vs. consensus of 2.5M barrels.

The momo crowd is selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

Hong Kong stocks are tracing a continuation diamond.  This is bearish.  ETF of interest is EWH.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral and can swing either way, but expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1646, silver futures are at $18.08, and oil futures are $49.09.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3143, 3200 and 3223; support levels are 3125, 3100 and 3050.

DJIA futures are up 92 points.

CORONAVIRUS EARNINGS WARNING, NO CHANGE IN FEAR AND GREED EQUATION

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Coronavirus Spreads

Iran’s Deputy Health Minister is afflicted with coronavirus.

A hospital in Italy appears responsible for the spread of coronavirus infection as the hospital did not follow proper protocols.

How many people fly from Italy to the U. S. everyday?  It will not take much for the virus to spread in the U. S.

Coronavirus Earnings Warnings

UAL and MA have issued earnings warnings related to coronavirus.

Fear And Greed Equation

Markets are driven by fear and greed.  Periods of excessive greed provide selling opportunities.  Periods of fear provide buying opportunities.  This stock market is suffering from excessive greed.  One would think that 1000 Dow Jones Industrial Average point drop yesterday would have tempered the greed and introduced some fear; such change in greed and fear would have been healthy for the stock market.  Unfortunately that is not the case. There is no change in excessive greed and there is no change in almost no fear.

The consequence is that yesterday’s move down does not create a good setup for buying or short selling.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  The momo crowd is buying high beta stocks such as , , and .  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Yesterday a bearish technical pattern formed in gold causing the momentum to reverse.

The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable smart money or momo crowd activity in marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

Italian stocks are tracing a megaphone top.  This is bearish.  ETF of interest is EWI.  Before taking this trade, keep in mind that there is not a good way to predict news related to coronavirus.  This trade will work only if coronavirus spreads further in Italy.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

See also  PRUDENT INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION: GOLD MAKING A NEW HIGH AT A TIME NVIDIA AND BITCOIN ARE MAKING NEW HIGHS

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1653, silver futures are at $18.32, and oil futures are $51.30.

S&P 500 resistance levels are   3256, 3288 and 3300; support levels are 3223, 3200 and 3143.

DJIA futures are up 116 points.

CORONAVIRUS FEARS, BUFFETT POSITIVE ON STOCKS BUT SAYS MARKET CAN GO DOWN 50%

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Coronavirus Fears

The stock market is paying attention to coronavirus spreading beyond China. It is no longer mostly Asia. Italy in Europe has reported six coronavirus deaths. At a time like this it is nice to see Warren Buffett assuage investors. Warren Buffett‘s advice to not buy or sell on the headlines is especially applicable for most investors.

A Gem

There is a gem in Buffett’s annual letter that nobody is talking about. Buffett write: ‘That rosy prediction comes with a warning: Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater. But the combination of The American Tailwind, about which I wrote last year, and the compounding wonders described by Mr. Smith, will make equities the much better long-term choice for the individual who does not use borrowed money and who can control his or her emotions. Others? Beware!’ Let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ETF (DIA). Similar conclusions can be drawn from S&P 500 ETF SPY and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • Take a close look at the scale on the right hand side of the chart to fully visualize how far this stock market has come since the point marketed as Arora buy signal in March of 2009.
  • The stock market bull is now over 10 years old. Investors are suffering from a recency bias. Many investors simply cannot come to terms with the idea that there can be a substantial pullback such as 50% in the stock market. There is a probability of 25% of a major pullback. They do not ring the bell at the top. Before you send me hate mail, keep in mind that immediately after Trump election, The Arora Report gave a buy signal at a time when most analysts were predicting a big fall in the market. Shortly thereafter, I called for Dow 30,000 at a time when no one was talking about such a high target. I have subsequently repeated the same call several times.
  • If the market goes down, it is not going to go down in a straight line. Investors ought to pay attention to the support zones shown on the chart.
  • The first support zone shown on the chart is the zone of recent congestion before the latest breakout in the stock market.
  • The second support zone shown on the chart is around the low point in December 2018 when the stock market fell about 20%. The chart shows Arora buy signal on Christmas Eve of 2018 which has turned out to be the low.
  • The third support zone is around the zone from where the stock market took off after Trump election.
  • Semiconductor stocks have been the leaders on the upside. Consider watching stocks such as AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Intel (INTC) and NVIDIA (NVDA) for clues.
  • Apple (AAPL) has major exposure to China. Watch for a decisive break of $300 level.
  • Investors have been hiding in large cap tech stocks such as Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL). Consider watching these stocks to see if they break their support levels.
  • The move up in gold has been very strong since the recent breakout. Consider watching gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV) and gold miner ETF (GDX).

Down the elevator

There is an old saying that stocks go up the stairs but come down the elevator. A big quick drop in the stock market is not unusual although investors who have gotten used to the recently overly bullish behavior in the market may not remember the true nature of the stock market.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks. Smart money is inactive

Gold

Gold is marching towards $1700.  Money is flowing out of stocks and into gold.  The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but the market can quickly reverse off the lows.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are falling and bonds are moving up strongly.

The dollar is showing significant strength.

Gold futures are at $1680, silver futures are at $18.68, and oil futures are $51.24.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3256, 3288 and 3300; support levels are 3223, 3200 and 3143.

DJIA futures are down 942 points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 24% – 34% and short to medium-term hedges of  0% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 10%.

 

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