(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
HOUSE PASSES BUDGET, INFLATION UNDER CONTROL, SENTIMENT OVERLY POSITIVE
December 13, 2013
The House passed the budget deal; this is causing mild optimism in the stock market.
Core PPI came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus. This shows that inflation is under control. Core PPI has a significant weight in our model, the theory is that inflation shows up in producer prices before it shows up in consumer prices.
Our proprietary sentiment indicators are reaching overly positive territory. This is a contrary indicator. In other words, an overly positive sentiment usually leads to corrections.
Interest rates are falling on the PPI number.
Oil is breaking support at $97.
Gold is trying to recover from yesterday’s drubbing.
Gold futures are at $1232, silver futures are at $19.50, and oil futures are $96.42.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1800, 1825, and 1837; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are up 14 points.
GOLD FALLS AFTER SMART MONEY TAKES GAINS
December 12, 2013
Yesterday afternoon, Smart Money was aggressively taking gains in gold. Interestingly after Smart Money was done taking gains, gold has fallen out of bed.
Stocks are trying to rebound from yesterday’s losses.
Gold futures are at $1230, silver futures are at $19.58, and oil futures are $97.92.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1800, 1825, and 1837; support levels are 1750, 1725, and 1710.
DJIA futures are down 18 points.
BUDGET DEAL IN WASHINGTON, QUIET MARKETS WITH THE EXCEPTION ON EURO
December 11, 2013
Negotiators in Washington have reached a budget deal. At the time of this writing, it is not known if the deal can pass the House. The trading day will be punctuated by new information in this regard.
Markets are quiet with the exception of euro. Euro is rising.
Gold futures are at $1259, silver futures are at $20.36, and oil futures are $98.37.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1825, 1837, and 1850; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are up 12 points.
TAPER PROBABILITY NEXT WEEK GOES UP, SMART MONEY GENERATING SHORT SQUEEZE IN GOLD
December 10, 2013
Based on the reaction of the markets to Friday’s strong employment data, the probability of the Fed starting a taper next week has gone up.
Traditionally the consensus has been that both the stock and bond markets will go down when the taper starts. However, markets are perverse, they almost always make fools of the maximum number of gurus. The probability has significantly increased that the markets may not react as negatively to taper as generally thought.
Smart Money is engineering a massive short squeeze in gold. Smart Money has no allegiance to being long or short, they just want to make money.
This morning, when gold did not go down on increasing talk of taper next week, that was a perfect opportunity to squeeze the shorts.
Gold futures are at $1257, silver futures are at $20.28, and oil futures are $98.29.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1625, 1837, and 1850; support levels are 1800, 1775, and 1766.
DJIA futures are down 46 points.
BUDGET DEAL MAY BE AHEAD
December 9, 2013
There are several reports this morning and over the weekend that congressional negotiators are close to a budget deal. Details are not known at this time. If the details are meaningful, the U. S. stock market can take another leg up.
Interest rates are slightly lower.
Gold is trying to stage a rally, but the attempt is feeble so far.
Oil is mostly unchanged.
Gold futures are at $1231, silver futures are at $19.62, and oil futures are $97.70.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1825, 1837, and 1850; support levels are 1800, 1775, and 1766.
DJIA futures are up 8 points.
