Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.
DUDLEY AND WILLIAMS HAWKISH, GOLD FALLS BUT OIL STAYS LEVITATED
This is what you need to know today.
Hawkish Fed Officials
Two Fed officials, Dudley of New York and Williams of San Francisco, have reiterated hawkish views on interest rates.
Oil
Oil continues to levitate on hopes of freeze in production next month. In the speculation of what will happen next month, the real news has been lost. The real news is that in June Saudi Arabia exported 8.83 million barrels of oil and oil products, an all time record.
BHI Rig Count will be released at 1:00 pm ET today. Rig count often moves oil.
Failed Gold Rally
Another gold rally failed. Silver is beginning to make new lower lows.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.
Dollar is slightly stronger.
Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down
Gold futures are at $1342, silver futures are at $19.29, and oil futures are $48.72.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2200, 2222 and 2250; support levels are 2165, 2150, and 2132.
DJIA futures are up/ down 54 points.
THE NEXT BIG MARKET MOVING EVENT IS JACKSON HOLE, BRENT OIL CROSSES $50
This is what you need to know today.
Watch For Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve of Kansas City is holding its annual Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole from August 25th to August 27th. Janet Yellen will speak on Friday August 26th.
The belief is that hawkish members of FOMC do not matter because Yellen is an ultra-dove and will not raise rates.
What Doom and Gloom
There have been many doom and gloom predictions about U. K. due to Brexit. Well, the English consumer is spending. U. K. Retail Sales came at 1.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.
British pound is jumping.
Japanese Exports Tumble
Japanese Exports have tumbled to pre-financial crisis level.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims came at 262K vs. 265K consensus.
Oil
In the U. S., benchmark is WTI crude oil. In the rest of the world the benchmark is Brent crude oil. Brent crude has crossed the $50 mark.
Due to liquidity reasons, we are switching over to October contract from September contract.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Momo crowd is aggressively buying gold and silver, smart money is inactive.
Dollar is weaker against most currencies with the exception of yen.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1356, silver futures are at $19.76, and oil futures are $47.95.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2200, 2222 and 2250; support levels are 2165, 2150, and 2132.
DJIA futures are down 5 points.
MARKETS QUIET AHEAD OF FOMC MINUTES AND GASOLINE GLUT
This is what you need to know today.
FOMC
FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 pm ET. This is often a market moving event. Markets are quiet as they await the minutes.
Please stay alert around this time in case there are opportunities.
Gasoline Glut
API report shows that gasoline inventories increased by over 2 million barrels vs. consensus of 500K barrels. This is the biggest increase in six months.
API oil inventories fell by just over 1 million barrels vs. -1 million barrels consensus.
EIA data will be released at 10:30 am ET. Oil is very overbought in the short-term.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold, silver, currencies, interest rates and bonds are range bound awaiting FOMC minutes.
Gold futures are at $1349, silver futures are at $19.73, and oil futures are $46.55.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2200, 2222 and 2250; support levels are 2165, 2150, and 2132.
DJIA futures are down 14 points.
DUDLEY SPOILS THE PARTY AND SOROS SELLS GOLD
This is what you need to know today.
Industrial Production
Industrial Production came at +0.7% vs. 0.3% consensus.
The Capacity Utilization came at 75.9% vs. 75.7% consensus.
These are excellent numbers.
Inflation
Core Consumer Price Index came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.
Insight here is that inflation is easing at the consumer level.
Housing
Housing Starts came at 1211K vs. 1167k consensus.
Building Permits came at 1152K vs. 1150K consensus.
The insight here is that housing stays strong.
Dudley Spoils The Party
New York Fed President, William Dudley, is out saying that September rate hike is possible.
Pre market up-move in stocks, gold, silver, euro, yen and bonds has reversed on Dudley’s statement.
Soros Sells Gold
There were two main triggers for gold to take off in the beginning of 2016. One of them was Soros buying gold. Momo crowd bought aggressively on the news.
Soros has now sold gold by reducing his holdings in GLD from 1.05 million shares to 240K shares.
Soros has also reduced his holdings in gold miner ABX to 1.07 million shares from 22.9 million shares. Soros has also sold silver miner SLW.
Momo crowd aggressively bought gold on the news based on a highly twisted conspiracy theory. However smart money sold aggressively into the rally around $1363 driving gold to $1348.
Oil
Oil continues to rally on speculation of an oil freeze by OPEC.
China
China has approved Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock market link. This is a positive development.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.
Currencies are weakening after being strong overnight against the dollar.
Interest rates are slightly ticking up and bonds are slightly weaker.
Gold futures are at $1352, silver futures are at $19.82, and oil futures are $45.80.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2200, 2222 and 2250; support levels are 2132, 2120, and 2100.
DJIA futures are down 39 points.
OMINOUS ECONOMIC DATA CHEERS INVESTORS AGAIN!
This is what you need to know today.
Ominous Economic Data
Make no mistake, markets all over the globe are connected. What happens in Japan and China has major impact on American markets.
In China new yuan loans dropped to 493.6 billion yuan. The classical interpretation is that this is ominous as the loan demand is falling. However, after initial concern by investors, the theory that ominous data is good because the government will provide stimulus took hold. The stock market in Shanghai ran up 2.4% in late afternoon.
In Japan GDP came at 0.2% vs. 0.7% consensus. Again a number showing that the economy is weakening. After initial concern, investors started buying again on hopes of more stimulus.
Oil
Oil rally continues on buying by the momo crowd on hopes that OPEC members will agree on a freeze of production. It is meaningless because OPEC members are already producing near capacity. However, momo crowd is not known for deep study, they just buy.
Gold
Once again smart money sold gold rally triggered by aggressive buying by the momo crowd. On Friday morning, momo crowd ran up gold to over $1361. At 11:45 am ET, an aggressive seller bearing all the hallmarks of smart money entered the market pushing gold temporarily down to $1338. Momo crowd continues to aggressively buy gold this morning.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but stocks are likely to open higher due to positive sentiment emanating from Shanghai.
Dollar is weaker.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1343, silver futures are at $19.80, and oil futures are $44.69.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2200, 2222 and 2250; support levels are 2165, 2150, and 2132.
DJIA futures are up 46 points.
WHAT TO DO NOW
Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider 27 – 38% of assets in cash or treasury bills, and short to medium-term hedges of 25% and very short term hedges of 5%.
You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98%, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.
Please click here to take advantage of a FREE 30 day trial.
Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.
