WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: OPEC MAKES A DEAL AND OIL RUNS, MOMO BUYS STOCKS BUT SMART MONEY ABSTAINS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: OPEC MAKES A DEAL AND OIL RUNS, MOMO BUYS STOCKS BUT SMART MONEY ABSTAINS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

OPEC DEAL, GOOD PMI FROM EUROPE AND WHITE HOUSE SPLIT GENERATES POSITIVE SENTIMENT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

OPEC Deal

OPEC has tentatively agreed along with Russia (ETF of interest is RSX) to add around 600K barrels per day of oil production.  This is less than many had feared.  Oil is running up.

Europe PMI

A composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Europe rose to 54.8 vs. 52 consensus.  The strength is in the service sector.

On another positive note in Europe, Greece is now cleared to exit the bailout that has kept the country afloat since 2010.

White House Split

There are reports that the White House staff is split on how to handle the trade war with China. Some advisors are reportedly advocating high level discussions with China before the new tariffs go into effect.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks, especially high beta tech stocks.

The smart money is buying oil stocks.

Gold

Trading in gold is listless.

Turkey Election

On Sunday, elections will be held in Turkey.  The result may provide an investment opportunity. ETF of interest is TUR.  TUR is followed in ZYX Emerging Markets.

Technical Patterns

Oil is tracing a Continuation Triangle. This is bullish. The ETFs of interest are USO and UWT.

Various materials related stocks are tracing a Megaphone Top.  This is bearish. The ETF of interest is XLB.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1270, silver futures are at $16.36, and oil futures are $67.11.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2800, 2840 and 2860; support levels are 2740, 2700 and 2688.

DJIA futures are up 137 points.

TRADE WAR CONCERNS AFTER INDIA SLAPS TARIFFS, OPEC NEAR A DEAL

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trade War

After ignoring trade war concerns yesterday, the market is again becoming concerned about a trade war this morning.

India announced duties on a number of American products ranging from chemicals to agricultural. This is in response to the U. S. tariffs on steel and aluminum after India failed to win an exemption.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks this morning in the early trade.  The smart money is lightly selling select stocks.

Gold

Gold is under pressure after gold failed to stage a rally yesterday.  The smart money is inactive. The momo crowd is selling.

OPEC Deal

There are rumors that OPEC is near a deal to increase production. Trading in oil is volatile in a narrow range.

Argentina And Saudi Arabia

There is good news for Argentina and Saudi Arabia.  MSCI has decided to include these two countries in its emerging market index.  A lot of money is tied to this index.  As a result passive fund managers are now buying stocks in these two countries.

Saudi Arabia ETF is KSA.  Argentina ETF is ARGT.  As appropriate buying opportunities in these two countries will be in ZYX Emerging.

Technical Patterns

None of note

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1265, silver futures are at $16.26, and oil futures are $64.97.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2800, 2840 and 2860; support levels are 2765, 2740 and 2700.

DJIA futures are down 67 points.

TRADE WAR FEARS FADE, MOMO BUYS STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trade War Fears Fade

This morning trade war fears are fading.

European auto makers are proposing no tariffs on cars in an apparent win for Trump.

There is a lot of rhetoric coming from China but no concrete action.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks this morning in the early trade. The smart money is inactive.

China And Japan

Stocks in China and Japan have reversed their earlier declines.

Gold

Trading in gold is listless and gold is range bound.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil ahead of the OPEC meeting.

Technical Patterns

Lithium stocks are tracing a Double Top.  This is bearish. The ETF of interest is LIT.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Dollar is weaker.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Gold futures are at $1277, silver futures are at $16.32, and oil futures are $65.64.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2800, 2840 and 2860; support levels are 2765, 2740 and 2700.

DJIA futures are up 116 points.

MARKETS NERVOUS AS TRUMP MAKES THE NEXT MOVE, RAISE CASH AND HEDGES

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Increase Cash And Hedges

Consider increasing cash and hedges. Please see ‘What To Do Now’ section below.

Trump Makes The Next Move

Trump has ordered identification of $200 billion in Chinese goods for additional 10% tariffs.  If China retaliates, Trump plans tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods for a total of $400 billion.

China Cannot Match

China cannot directly match U. S. tariffs because there are only $130 billion of Chinese goods coming into the U. S.  China may take other measures such as selling U. S. Treasuries or devaluing the yuan, the Chinese currency.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks in the early trade.  The smart money is inactive.

Money Flows

Money flows in popular tech stocks have flipped.  We will do a separate post.

Chinese Stocks

Chinese stocks that trade in China and Hong Kong are being crushed.  However the momo crowd  in the United States is aggressively buying speculative Chinese stocks that trade in the United States.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.  The smart money is inactive.

Oil

After yesterday’s enthusiasm, oil is being sold on rumors related to the OPEC meeting.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Money is flowing out of stock into bonds.

Currencies are mixed, yen is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1281, silver futures are at $16.27, and oil futures are $64.70.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2765, 2800 and 2840; support levels are 2740, 2700 and 2688.

DJIA futures are down 342  points.

NEGOTIATING TACTIC OR A WAR OF ATTRITION, CONCERN ABOUT OPEC MEETING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Negotiating Tactic Or A War Of Attrition

The stock market had mostly dismissed concerns arising out of the U. S. and China putting tariffs on goods as a negotiating tactic.

This morning, the stock market is beginning to weigh the possibility that instead of a simple negotiating tactic, this is a real Trump policy.  If it turns out to be real policy, then the most likely outcome is a trade war of attrition with China.  The U. S. is likely to win but there may be some pain in the stock market before the win.  Any dip in the stock market on these concerns may turn out to be a buying opportunity based on other economic data at this time.  Of course, nothing is fixed in the stock market and economic data. For this reason it is important to keep a close eye on the new economic data until the trade issues are resolved.

Momo Crowd And The Smart Money In The Stock Market

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks in early trade.  The smart money is mostly inactive but lightly selling popular high beta technology stocks and stocks directly impacted by a trade war with China.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold this morning as some money flows out of stocks into gold.  The smart money is inactive.

OPEC Meeting Concerns

Previously oil was under pressure on Russia apparently advocating as much as 1.6 million barrel production increase.  There is a relief rally on speculation that a production increase of only 200K to 300K barrels is in the cards. The OPEC meeting will end on Saturday.  Until that time, expect oil to move mostly based on rumors.

Any large move in oil may impact the stock market. 

Technical Patterns

Oil is tracing  a Flag. This is bearish. ETF of interest is USO. Before acting please see the subsection on OPEC above.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Interest rates, bonds and currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1281, silver futures are at $16.51, and oil futures are $65.09.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2800, 2840 and 2860; support levels are 2740, 2700 and 2688.

DJIA futures are down 211  points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 20% – 30% and short to medium-term hedges of  10% – 15% and very short term hedges of 10%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

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