WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: PAY ATTENTION TO BAD BOND AUCTION IN JAPAN THIS COULD BE THE FUTURE IN THE U. S.; SHORT SQUEEZE $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: PAY ATTENTION TO BAD BOND AUTION IN JAPAN THIS COULD BE THE FUTURE IN THE U. S.; SHORT SQUEEZE $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

PRUDENT INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO WEAKNESS UNDER THE STRONG HEADLINE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jobs Report

Prudent investors ought to pay attention to the weakness under the strong headline. Let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Similar conclusions can be drawn from charts of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • The jobs report has a strong headline: Unemployment rate fell to 3.5% vs. 3.7% consensus.
  • Digging below the surface, there is significant weakness.
  • Non-farm Private Payrolls came at 114K vs. 120K consensus.
  • Non-farm Payrolls came at 136K vs. 145K consensus.
  • Most importantly, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana in the early trade.   Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can easily swing either way.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger

Gold futures are at $1509, silver futures are at $17.51, and oil futures are $53.05.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2925, 2950 and 3020; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are up 68 points.

‘MAKE OR BREAK’ ISM SERVICES NUMBER AHEAD, BUYING IN GOLD

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

‘Make Or Break’

‘Make or break’ ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10:00 am ET.  The consensus number is 55.4. The whisper number is in the range of 54 to 55.

If the number is higher than 56, expect a rip roaring rally.

If the number is under 50, expect a bloodbath.

If the number is between 54 and 56, a rally may ensue but may not be sustained.

A number between 50 and 54 will cause a selloff.

Of course there are always other related factors that may change market trajectory from the calls above.  Also there is never any certainty in this business.

Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims came at 219K vs. 215K consensus.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is lightly buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold ahead of the ISM number. It does not make sense to buy gold ahead of the number because gold will go down if the number is strong and gold will go up if the number is weak.  However, the momo crowd is not known for connecting the dots.  They appear to be buying because gold went back over $1500.

Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.   Oil is in the support zone but $50 is the next target for the momo crowd.

Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Technology stocks are tracing a double top.  This is bearish.  ETF of interest is XLK.  However keep in mind that the pattern can easily be negated by the ISM number today, from the jobs report tomorrow, or trade news next week.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is undeterminable because there is a binary event ahead.  Please see the section above titled, ‘Make Or Break’.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1507, silver futures are at $17.56, and oil futures are $52.45.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are up 13 points.

ANOTHER ALARM BELL RINGS FOR THE STOCK MARKET BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO PANIC YET

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Alarm Bell

An alarm bell rang for a recession in the form of ISM manufacturing data.  This is not a reason to panic yet.  We will do a separate post.

ADP

Employment change came at 135K vs. 150K consensus.  It is too soon to draw any inference from this weaker data.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Money is flowing out of stocks and into gold.  The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

ADP data was bullish for oil.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is aggressively selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can quickly turn positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1501, silver futures are at $17.53, and oil futures are $53.66.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2925, 2950 and 3020; support levels are 2918, 2860 and 2840.

DJIA futures are down 154 points.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE BAD BOND AUCTION IN JAPAN — THIS COULD BE THE FUTURE IN THE U. S.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Pay Attention

Investors have been enjoying a free lunch for 10 years.  Corporations and governments keep on borrowing.  Economics 101 says that the increased borrowing should make interest rates go much higher.  Much higher interest rates should result in much lower valuations for stocks.

For the last nine years this basic law of economics has been artificially repealed by shenanigans of central banks.

Sooner or later central banks are going to run out of ammunition and investors are going to become the bag holders. This is the reason for investors to stay very alert while enjoying the drunken party as it goes on.

For the first time in a long time, there is another sign that asks investors to stay alert.

10-year Japanese bond auction drew the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since 2016.  Yields in Japan are climbing across the curve.  This is a SUDDEN collapse.  This is a result of Bank of Japan (BOJ) deciding to reduce bond purchases in October.

Some of this is already spilling into the bond market in the U. S.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

Gold

The momo crowd is selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

In the early trade the momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Silver miners are tracing a megaphone top. This is bearish.  ETF of interest is SIL.  As a caution, make sure you are highly experienced if taking this trade because silver can easily reverse if stocks start falling.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1471, silver futures are at $17.14, and oil futures are $54.56.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are up 68 points.

PARTIAL DENIAL OF LIMITS ON INVESTMENTS IN CHINESE COMPANIES, SELLING IN GOLD

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Investments In Chinese Companies

On Friday, the stock market came under pressure on several reports that Trump was considering restrictions on U. S. investments in Chinese companies.

Trump clearly watches the stock market and excels  at timing to stop the stock market from going down.  On Saturday, the administration issued a statement that there were no current plans to stop Chinese companies from listing on American exchanges.   The biggest fear was potential delisting of Chinese companies that trade on American exchanges.

Our analysis is that in spite of the partial denial, Trump could use this as a tool in negotiations with the Chinese, the result would be very negative for the U. S. stock market.  Investors ought to stay alert.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

When stock futures opened Sunday evening, the momo crowd was aggressively buying based on the denial.  The momo crowd has continued to buy as of this writing.  The gains in stock futures have been tempered because smart money started selling into the strength about an hour ago.

Gold

The momo crowd is heavily selling gold.  Gold has decisively broken the support at $1,500.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil as of this writing.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1489, silver futures are at $17.28, and oil futures are $55.21.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are up 21 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 22% – 32% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 15%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

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