WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: POTENTIAL VIRUS MUTATION, CHINA HONG KONG POWER GRAB CHALLENGES TRUMP – STOCK MARKET OBLIVIOUS $DIA $GLD

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: POTENTIAL VIRUS MUTATION, CHINA HONG KONG POWER GRAB CHALLENGES TRUMP – STOCK MARKET OBLIVIOUS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

MOMO BUYS THE TINY DIP ON CHINA CONCERNS, MARIJAUANA CORONAVIRUS SPECULATION

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

China Concerns

Please start out by reading yesterday’s Afternoon Capsule regarding Hong Kong Security Law.  We were informing you before this became the story in the mainstream media. The story is now prominent in mainstream media.

Overnight, stocks in Hong Kong crashed falling over 5%. Concerns about China caused a dip in futures overnight as mainstream media started highlighting the situation.  What did the momo crowd do? They aggressively bought the tiny dip.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks as of this writing. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Money is flowing into gold on China concerns.

The momo crowd  is buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is also lightly buying gold.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is a report that a team of Canadian scientists have found that strong strains of marijuana help prevent and treat coronavirus.  This is not a peer reviewed report.  Of course when it comes to marijuana, momo crowd does not need any scientific rigor.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but keep in mind it is Friday before a long weekend. Fridays before a long weekend are notorious for volatility. If the market starts going up, short sellers would want to buy to cover starting a short squeeze to the upside because they may not want to carry the risk over the long weekend.  On the other hand if momentum reverses, the momo crowd would sell aggressively for not wanting to take the risk over the long weekend. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1737, silver futures are at $17.59, and oil futures are $32.91.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3000, 3075 and 3110: support levels are 2924, 2870 and 2785.

DJIA futures are up 40 points.

MOMO CROWD BUYS STOCKS ON 2.4 MILLION MORE AMERICANS BEING UNEMPLOYED

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jobless Claims Undercounts Unemployed

The economy has become a sharing economy with a large number of people self-employed. Many self-employed people have been hit hard by the coronavirus. Self-employed are now eligible for unemployment benefits and they are filing jobless claims in very large numbers. However, the government has chosen not to count jobless claims by self-employed in the total numbers reported. Certainly there is justification for underreporting the unemployed because it helps keep the morale up and helps the stock market going up.  But do Americans want such shenanigans in the data reported by the government?  Of course the government justifies by saying that they do not have systems to count the number of jobless claims by self-employed.  So the government has systems to let self-employed file for jobless claims, approve the claims and paid the self-employed but they are unable to count the totals – go figure!

Weekly jobless claims came at 2.438 million vs. 2.4 million consensus (without self-employed).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

By now all investors are familiar with momo crowds’ pattern – they buy on the news of more Americans being unemployed.  True to their pattern, the momo crowd aggressively bought stocks on the news of jobless claims.   Futures have recouped most of their early morning losses.

Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks. Sentiment is very positive as ACB enters the U. S. market by buying Reliva for $40 million in stock.  Reliva distributes CBD in the U. S.

Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Metal and mining stocks are tracing a shooting star.  This is bearish. ETF of interest is XME.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but expect the market to attempt to go higher first.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1739, silver futures are at $17.85, and oil futures are $34.30.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3000, 3075 and 3110: support levels are 2924, 2870 and 2785.

DJIA futures are down 79 points.

CROSS CURRENTS – POTENTIAL VIRUS MUTATION – MOMO BUYING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Cross Currents

There are always cross currents in the markets. Investors should always look at both positive and negative pieces of new data.  Right now this is more important than ever because the virus situation has the potential to go very well or go very wrong.

Virus Mutation

One of the big concerns on the negative side is potential virus mutation. The new data coming from China heightens this concern.  Among the clusters of new outbreaks, doctors are observing that it is taking longer for patients to develop symptoms. Is the virus mutating?

On the positive side, for the most part, the momo crowd continues to aggressively buy everything.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1750, silver futures are at $17.96, and oil futures are $23.68.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are  3000, 3075 and 3110: support levels are 2924, 2870 and  2785.

DJIA futures are up 297 points

STOCK MARKET INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO SHIFT OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AWAY FROM POPULAR STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Senate Testimony

The Powell and Mnuchin will remotely testify in front of the Senate. Nothing is expected that should move the market.

Housing Starts

Housing Starts came at 891K vs. 950K consensus.

Intra Market Flows

Stock market investors ought to pay attention to billions of dollars of intra market movements.

Money is beginning to shift away from popular high flying anti coronavirus vaccine stocks. These money shifts that do not show up in indexes such as S&P 500 (SPX) are positive for the overall stock market. The money shifts have picked up since the announcement of impressive data from the Phase 1 trial by Moderna (MRNA). Let us examine with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) which represents the popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) compared to seven individual stocks.

Note the following:

  • The main purpose of comparing seven stocks to Dow Jones Industrial Average is not to provide analysis of these individual stocks but to illustrate with real examples the intra market shifts in money flows to help investors gauge the overall health of the stock market.
  • Zoom Video (ZM) has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of coronavirus. As the chart shows, the stock is up about 140% year to date. As the economy is opening up and there is the prospect of vaccine sooner than expected, as the chart shows the price of Zoom Video is beginning to roll over. Our proprietary smart money flows that are like an X-ray of a stock are negative in Zoom Video.  As a full disclosure, The Arora Report has recently taken a short position in Zoom Video.Zoom Video has gained a lot of free customers. In our analysis, Zoom Video is going to have difficulty converting the free customers into paying customers. Zoom Video also faces stiff competition from Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB) and Cisco (CSCO). Zoom Video has experienced security issues that the bigger companies do not have. Zoom Video valuation is unattractive. The stock should be sold.
  • Smart money flows in Peloton Interactive (PTON) are negative. Peloton has benefited from people staying at home and the closing of gyms. Peloton reported very strong earnings and recently reached a milestone of one million connected users. Peloton will continue to grow. However the present valuation is unattractive and the positive sentiment behind the stock may not stay as positive as the economy opens. As a full disclosure, The Arora Report has taken profits on most of its Peloton position and is now in the process of exiting the remaining position.
  • Smart money flows in Teladoc (TDOC) are negative. Teladoc has benefited from the shift to telemedicine during the coronavirus shutdown. Some of these benefits will persist as the economy opens up but as the chart shows, the stock price is rolling over. The present high valuation is not likely to be sustained. As a full disclosure, The Arora Report previously took profits on its Teladoc position.
  • Smart money flows are negative in Slack Technologies (WORK). Slack faces stiff competition from Microsoft. The present positive sentiment towards the stock is not sustainable and the stock should be on a sell list.
  • Smart money flows are positive in Walmart (WMT) and mild negative in Amazon. Amazon and Walmart also benefited from coronavirus. As the chart shows, Walmart and Amazon stocks are not rolling over. Walmart has reported earnings better than the consensus and the whisper numbers. The gains that Walmart has experienced are sustainable. The valuation is rich but justifiable. The Arora Report has a long term position in Walmart and the plan is to continue to hold Walmart. For those not in Walmart, the plan is to raise the buy zone.
  • Smart money flows are positive in Disney (DIS). Disney is an example of a company that has been hurt by the coronavirus but money is now flowing into Disney stock. As the chart shows, Disney stock price is moving higher. Disney fell into the Arora buy zone in March giving investors a great opportunity near the lows as shown on the chart. For those not in Disney stock the plan is to raise the buy zone.

What Does It All Mean?

The intra market shifts in money flows described above are a positive sign for the stock market. As a note of caution, this does not mean that investors should rush out and buy stocks. In the short term, from a technical perspective the stock market is very overbought and vulnerable to a pullback unless the second leg of the short squeeze starts. Investors should consider separating out strategic decisions from tactical decisions and also short term trades from long term investments. Consider buying when the signals are given or when various stocks and ETFs fall into the buy zones.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is lightly buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral and can easily swing either way.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is  weaker.

Gold futures are at $1740, silver futures are at $17.71 and oil futures are $32.23

S&P 500 futures resistance level is 3000: support levels are  2924, 2870 and  2785.

DJIA futures are down 2 points

VACCINE SUCCESS MAY UNLEASH THE SECOND LEG OF THE FORCE TO PROPEL THE STOCK MARKET TO NEW HIGHS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Vaccine Success

Many investors not familiar with the mechanics of short squeezes are confused by the strength of the stock market rally during the coronavirus pandemic. Short squeeze related actions were the force that unleashed the strength of the stock market rally.

Under these stock market conditions, investors ought to analyze various potential stock market scenarios. Under one scenario, success with coronavirus vaccine may unleash the second leg of the force to propel the stock market to new highs. Moderna (MRNA) has announced positive interim clinical data from its vaccine against coronavirus from Phase 1 study; the immediate stock market reaction has been very positive. The data is impressive in that the magnitude of the response to the vaccine is of the same magnitude as caused by the natural coronavirus infection.

The economy is opening up but there is significant uncertainty. In theory, uncertainty is bad for the stock market. The fiscal stimulus is helping but the stock market should also be concerned about the massive budget deficits and borrowing. The Fed is printing money like there is no tomorrow, but there are consequences of the bloated balance sheet at the Fed. There is optimism about antivirals and vaccines but there are no guarantees. Shouldn’t the stock market be taking into account the damage that has already been done to the economy? The answer is the market always looks forward. What is next for the stock market – let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) that represents the popular index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • The chart is a monthly chart giving investors a long term perspective. This chart should be the starting point of any analysis.
  • The chart shows that the stock market touched the upper band of the ‘mother of support zones’ and then bounced to the bottom band of the resistance zone.
  • In mid-April we called that the force related to short squeeze was about to exhaust itself. That call has proven spot on as since then the market has mostly treaded water for a month around the low band of the resistance zone shown on the chart until the news of success with Moderna vaccine.
  • The chart shows that according to our proprietary algorithms, 65% of the rally from the low in March to mid-April was related to short squeeze.
  • It is important to focus on the word “related” (as in, “related to a short-squeeze.”)
  • A short-squeeze often leads to a cycle of other actions. • As the stock market rises on a short-squeeze, the momo (momentum) crowd jumps in to buy because of the momentum to the upside. This adds to the buying.
  • As the momo crowd’s buying continues, buy signals are given on many technical indicators. Then technically oriented traders jump in to buy the stock market.
  • On a continued market rise, FOMO (fear of missing out) takes hold, and many investors jump in to buy without fully understanding what is really happening.
  • At about this time, some mom-and-pop investors start jumping in the stock market thinking that it is all clear.
  • As the market rises, short-sellers put in new “shorts” and the cycle continues.
  • It is conceivable that Moderna news along with more potential good news regarding vaccines from the likes of Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novavax (NVAX) and Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) along with good news on antivirals such as from Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE) may cause a second leg of the short squeeze to start.
  • Based on our algorithms, a stock market rally related to the second leg of short squeeze may only pause near the upper band of the resistance zone shown on the chart and then continue to new highs.

What does it all mean?

Investing is about risks and rewards. Risks in the stock market today are significantly higher than generally believed. Yes, there is a scenario of the second leg of the force related to short squeeze related activities to take the stock market to new highs. Investors should also consider scenarios of bad news on vaccines, major hiccups as the economy opens and a potential second wave of the virus. From a technical perspective the stock market is overbought in the short term and it will not take much for a serious drop in the stock market.

Investors should consider watching the price action in the five big tech stocks of Amazon (AMZN), Apple ((AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Under these circumstances, investors should neither be bears nor bulls. Investors should follow the analytical framework of protection bands and stay nimble based on new data.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd was extremely aggressively buying gold earlier in the morning. Then the momentum reversed on the vaccine news.  The momo crowd started aggressively selling gold on reversal in momentum.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

China’s oil consumption has significantly moved up.

The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly swing negative because the market is overbought.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is  weaker.

Gold futures are at $1748, silver futures are at $17.30, and oil futures are $32.24.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 2870, 2924 and 3000: support levels are 2785, 2714 and 2653.

DJIA futures are up 752 points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 34% – 44% and short to medium-term hedges of  3% – 15% and short term hedges of 8% – 20%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

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