(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
QUADRUPLE WITCHING BIAS TO THE UPSIDE, MOMO CROWD AGGRESSIVELY BUYING GOLD
March 21, 2014
Today is quadruple witching. Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire today. Expect volatility.
Part of yesterday’s up-move is attributable to buy side bias in quadruple witching. It is not uncommon for such gains to reverse on the following Monday.
Momo crowd is aggressively buying gold and silver this morning.
Interest rates are range bound.
Oil is attempting to stage a rally.
Gold futures are at $1338, silver futures are at $20.41, and oil futures are $99.35.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1837, 1825, and 1800.
DJIA futures are up 29 points.
THE OVERBOUGHT MARKET FOUND AN EXCUSE TO SELL
March 20, 2014
Yesterday the stock market fell after Janet Yellen press conference. Overbought markets need an excuse to sell. This is nothing new and has been going on for a very long time. The stock market investors need to focus on two simple points. First, the U. S. economy is getting better. Second, the U. S. stock market is fully valued and overbought.
Gold is falling further.
Dollar is becoming stronger.
Interest rates are higher.
Oil is showing some weakness.
Gold futures are at $1322, silver futures are at $20.17, and oil futures are $99.62.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1837, 1825, and 1800.
DJIA futures are down 35 points.
FIRST YELLEN PRESS CONFERENCE, GOLD CONTINUES TO FALL
March 19, 2014
FOMC statement will be released at 2:00 pm ET. Yellen will give her first press conference as Fed Chief at 2:30. The statement is likely to be dovish. There may be a pledge to keep interest rates low for a very long time. The Fed may change its focus away from the unemployment rate.
Please be alert this afternoon as there may be opportunities.
Yesterday afternoon the gold momo crowd was buying aggressively in anticipation of dovish statement by the Fed. However there was aggressive selling in gold overnight in India and China. This selling is driving gold lower.
Oil prices may move based on the inventory data to be released at 10:30 am ET.
Interest rates are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1344, silver futures are at $20.71, and oil futures are $99.94.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1850, 1837, and 1825.
DJIA futures are up 14 points.
STOCK MARKET CHEERS PUTIN, GOLD FALLS ON CRIMEA ANNEXATION
March 18, 2014
One of the keys to becoming a successful investor is to leave one’s opinions at the door, go into neutral, and listen to the market. This morning Russia moved quickly to annex Crimea. As Putin spoke saying that Russia was not about to take over Ukraine, stock futures rose. It may seem perverse but gold falls more on the news that Russia has moved quickly to annex Crimea.
Our call from Friday to buy stocks, short gold, short gold miners, and short bonds has proven spot on. However it is important to note that the risk in this stock market is much higher per our models than generally believed. It is important to not get carried with the bullish sentiment.
Gold futures are at $1353, silver futures are at $21.71, and oil futures are $98.36.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1850, 1837, and 1825.
DJIA futures are up 49 points.
DOOMSDAY GURUS PROVEN WRONG AGAIN
March 17, 2014
Crimea, a region of Ukraine, held a referendum this weekend on whether to join Russia. 96.77% of the vote was in favor of joining Russia. Sanctions from the West will likely be announced soon. Chinese currency Renminbi fell 0.3% to 11 month low, this is a big move for a currency; this comes after a string of bad economic data from China. Over the weekend, there were predictions that DJIA would open on Monday down 300 – 400 points and gold would open up $40 – $50. It is still early in the pre-market at the time of this update, but it is worth noting that DJIA futures have been up over 90 points and gold has been down about $6.00.
Oil is falling and interest rates are rising in line with our expectations from last week and contrary to the expectations of doomsday gurus.
Gold futures are at $1378, silver futures are at $21.37, and oil futures are $98.40.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1837, 1825, and 1800.
DJIA futures are up 92 points.
