WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: RAISE MORE CASH, MOMO BUYS STOCKS BUT SMART MONEY SELLS, GOLD ROCKETS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: RAISE MORE CASH, MOMO BUYS STOCKS BUT SMART MONEY SELLS, GOLD ROCKETS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

MOMO BUYS STOCKS BUT SMART MONEY SELLS INTO STRENGTH, MUTED INFLATION IN THE U. S. AND CHINA, OIL WARNING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

China Producer Price Index

Producer Price Index in China came at -0.3% vs. -0.1% consensus.  This is the first contraction in prices in three years in China.  This complicates the Chinese government’s efforts to prop up their economy.

Bulls should take notice that this data is ultimately negative for the stock market if the trend continues.

Another complicating factor is that food prices in China in July rose 9.1% from a year ago.   This is a seven-year high.

U. S. Producer Price Index

The U. S. Core PPI came at -0.1% vs. +0.2% consensus.  This muted inflation data may encourage the Fed to lower interest rates.  This trend, if it continues, is positive for stocks in the short term but negative in the long term.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we shared with you that a rally was likely. That call was spot on.  The momo crowd bought aggressively throughout the day.

In the late afternoon, smart money stepped up to lightly sell the strength.

In the early trade the momo crowd is aggressively buying but smart money is selling.

Gold

Buying came into gold after weaker than expected core PPI.  Gold is holding above the support level at $1,500.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

IEA is warning that oil demand is likely to fall.  However, the momo crowd is aggressively buying oil as the news from Saudi Arabia circulates and reaches the media.  You may recall that we shared the news with you in yesterday’s Morning Capsule before it was widely circulated.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1509, silver futures are at $16.93, and oil futures are $53.12.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2950, 3020 and 3050; support levels are 2918, 2860 and 2840.

DJIA futures are down 88 points.

STOCK MARKET STEPS BACK FROM CLIFF’S EDGE WITH A KEY REVERSAL — HERE IS WHAT IS NEXT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Edge Of The Cliff

Stock market stepped back from cliff’s edge with a key reversal. The real question is, “What is next?” Let’s explore with the help of three charts.

Three Charts

Please click here for an annotated intraday chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Similar conclusions can be drawn from intraday charts of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Please click here for an annotated daily chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Please click here for an annotated chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). For the sake of full transparency, the second and third charts were previously published and no changes have been made.

Note the following:

  • The first chart shows a key reversal. This is positive and in traditional technical analysis, it means a rally is ahead.
  • The first chart shows that VUD indicator stayed mostly orange during the strong rally from the lows. The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real time. The indicator staying mostly orange during the strong rally indicates that there was more supply of stocks than the demand for stocks. The market rose because buyers were significantly more aggressive than the sellers.
  • The behavior shown on the first chart of a key reversal accompanied by a negative VUD indicator means that more likely than not a subsequent rally may fail.
  • The second chart shows that The Arora Report gave four signals before the drop in the stock market. One of the signals was to short sell Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ or for aggressive investors who could not short sell, buying leveraged inverse Nasdaq 100 ETF (SQQQ) which goes up when the market goes down. The other signals included increasing hedges to protect portfolios and taking profits on select positions including China and Japan.
  • The second chart shows the second support zone. So far the support zone has held. Further, the support zone has held in a manner that increases the probability of a short term rally.
  • For a chart showing the third and fourth support zones, please click here. For the sake of complete transparency, this chart was published before the stock market fall.
  • Popular tech stocks Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) also staged strong reversals. This is positive in the short term.
  • Semiconductor stocks which have often given advanced indications of the stock market, also reversed. However reversals in popular semiconductor stocks AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Intel (INTC) and NVIDIA (NVDA) were not as strong as would have been expected. As of this writing, AMD is gapping up on securing Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Twitter (TWTR) as customers for its new processor chip for data centers.
  • The trigger behind the stock market drop was rapidly falling bond yields. Bond yields have recovered from the lows but the situation is still precarious as shown by the third chart linked above.

What Does It Mean

I distinctly remember incurring huge losses when the stock market fell off the cliff on October 19, 1987. Since then there are many mechanisms in place that prevent the stock market from falling off the cliff. However the most important element that prevents the stock market from falling off the cliff is the recency bias among investors. Due to the recent history, many investors believe that all dips are buying opportunities.

The foregoing does not mean that investors do not pay attention and do not take protective measures when the market comes close to the edge of the cliff. Investors ought to follow a proven model that has performed well in both bull and bear markets. An example is ZYX Asset Allocation Model. In 2008, when the stock market was falling and many investors lost one-half the value of their portfolios, the ZYX Asset Allocation Model produced a large gain by using inverse ETFs, hedges and other protective measures. The model gave an aggressive buy signal in 2009 and has stayed bullish since then. But at times like now, we have had defensive measures such as proper allocations to cash and hedges as well as proper portfolio construction to control risks. At this time, the model is giving a high probability to a short term rally and also a high probability to the rally failing unless there are perfectly timed tweets from President Trump and statements from central banks from across the globe.

Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims came at 209K vs. 213K consensus.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

An earlier dip in gold was aggressively bought.  As of this writing the momo crowd is buying gold.  Smart money is inactive perhaps because of the strength in the dollar.

Oil

Saudi Arabia is calling allies to find a way to prevent oil drop.  Since this news hit the wires late yesterday afternoon, oil has rallied.  Without this news, oil would have likely broken the support at $50.

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

CRON and NBEV reported overall good earnings.  These earnings have the potential to provide fuel for a further rally in marijuana stocks.  Both the momo crowd and smart money are buying marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can easily swing negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1507, silver futures are at $16.93, and oil futures are $52.24.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are up 154 points.

THE NEW DANGER SIGNALS FROM BONDS AND GOLD FOR THE STOCK MARKET BULLS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Danger Signals

There are new danger signals from bonds and gold for the stock market bulls, this stock market is controlled by the momo (momentum) crowd. The momo crowd is not known for deep analysis. They just keep on buying because stocks have been going up for years. Prudent investors ought to not fall into this trap. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Charts

Please click here for an annotated chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

Please click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). For the sake of full transparency, this chart was previously published and no changes have been made. Similar conclusions can be drawn from the charts of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • The first chart shows that up move in bonds has become a parabolic up move.
  • From the first chart, pay attention to the big up move shown by the last bar.
  • As the first chart shows, the parabolic up move in bonds is subsequent to a steady strong up move as shown by the trend line on the chart.
  • Prudent investors ought to note from the first chart that so far there have been four extreme overbought conditions in bonds as shown by RSI approaching 100.
  • Typically when RSI approaches 100, a significant pullback in price is expected unless it is a strong up trending market.
  • Note from the first chart that there have not been any material pullbacks in bond prices after the RSI approached 100 the first three times. The augured for a parabolic move up and that is exactly what is happening now.
  • Note from the first chart that the parabolic move up is on heavy volume.
  • Bonds move inverse to yields. The parabolic up move in bonds means a parabolic down move in yields.
  • The second chart shows that The Arora Report gave four signals before the drop in the stock market.
  • The four signals include short selling Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) or buying leveraged inverse Nasdaq 100 ETF (SQQQ) that goes up when the market goes down, increasing hedges to protect portfolios, taking profits on select ETF positions in our ZYX Global portfolio, and taking profits on a China ETF (ASHR) in our ZYX Emerging portfolio. ETFs on which profits were taken include semiconductor equities ETF (SMH), technology equities ETF (IYW), China internet equities ETF (KWEB), frontier markets ETF (FM), small-cap Japan equities ETF (DXJS) and large-cap currency hedged Japan equities ETF (HEWJ).
  • We previously shared with you that RSI on the second chart was oversold as indicated by RSI falling below the yellow line on the second chart. We wrote that this indicated at least a short term bounce.. This is exactly what happened; stock market had a bounce of over 300 Dow Jones Industrial Average points. For details please yesterday’s Morning Capsule. Now a fall is expected as of this writing.
  • For a chart showing the third and fourth support zone, please click here. For the sake of complete transparency, this chart was published before the stock market fall.

Rate Cuts In India, New Zealand And Thailand

The rate cut fever is spreading. There have been greater than expected rate cuts in India and New Zealand. There is a surprise rate cut in Thailand.

The Argument Carried Too Far

Since stocks compete with bonds, up to a certain point, lower rates are good for stocks. This exact point is indicated on the first chart linked above before the start of the parabolic move. A parabolic move in bonds is indicating an upcoming global recession or something else is wrong. This is a bad signal for stocks.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold is flying over $1500.  This is a negative signal for the stock market.  The momo crowd is buying gold. Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are falling and bonds are rising.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1508, silver futures are at $16.93, and oil futures are $52.28.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2860, 2918 and 2925; support levels are 2840, 2800 and 2765.

DJIA futures are down 258 points.

IF YOU COULD WATCH ONE THING, WATCH THE SUPPORT ZONES

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Chronology

The stock market is very volatile on China trade issues. It started with Trump imposing new duties on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliated by breaking its currency below the key level of seven to one dollar. The stock market fell by about 950 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) points before recovering. The U. S. responded by declaring China a currency manipulator. The stock market futures fell by 600 Dow Jones Industrial Average points. China attempted to defuse the situation by stating that it is not a currency manipulator. This helped the stock market futures recover. Then China came up with another statement to not expect its currency yuan to fall. This caused the stock market futures to move up by about 270 Dow Jones Industrial Average points. The reason we are talking about futures is because much of this action occurred after hours. The saga goes on.

As an investor, if you could watch only one thing, what would it be? Let’s examine with the help of two charts.

The Charts

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) after the market fall.

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF SPY that was published before the market fall. Please note the following:

  • The fist chart shows that The Arora Report gave four signals before the market fall that have now proven spot on.
  • The four signals include short selling Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) or buying leveraged inverse Nasdaq 100 ETF (SQQQ) that goes up when the market goes down, increasing hedges to protect portfolios, taking profits on select ETF positions in our ZYX Global portfolio, and taking profits on a China ETF (ASHR) in our ZYX Emerging portfolio. ETFs on which profits were taken include semiconductor equities ETF (SMH), technology equities ETF (IYW), China internet equities ETF (KWEB), frontier markets ETF (FM), small-cap Japan equities ETF (DXJS) and large-cap currency hedged Japan equities ETF (HEWJ).
  • The first chart shows that the stock market went to the second stop zone before bouncing.
  • The first chart shows that the volume has been much higher during the fall. This is bearish in the medium term.
  • The first chart shows that RSI is oversold as indicated by RSI falling below the yellow line shown on the first chart. This indicates at least a short term bounce as of this writing. However it can rapidly change.
  • The second chart that was published before the market fall shows four support zones.
  • The market fell quickly through the first support zone but as of this writing the second support zone has held.
  • To learn about support zones shown on the second chart and how to use them, please see a prior post published last week.

If You Could Watch One Thing

If you could watch one thing, watch the support zones. As long as the second support zone holds, it is a garden variety correction. If the market breaks the third support zone, it will be cause for concern. If the fourth support zone is decisively broken, significant protective measures should be taken.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying as of this writing.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can easily swing negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1476, silver futures are at $16.42, and oil futures are $55.21.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2840, 2800 and 2765.

DJIA futures are up 281 points.

RAISE MORE CASH ON YUAN BREAKING KEY 7 LEVEL — CHINA WEAPONIZES ITS CURRENCY AGAINST THE U. S., INDIA

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Raise More Cash

Consider raising more cash on Chinese yuan breaking the key level of 7 to U. S. dollar.  Please see ‘What To Do Now’ section below.

China Weaponizes Its Currency

China has know weaponized its currency against the U. S.  However China is acting in a measured manner. Chinese government first made its currency drop but later intervened to help the yuan not drop too much.

This is China’s response to the new tariffs imposed by the U. S.

Stock Markets Falling Across The Globe

Stock markets are falling across the globe after the Chinese currency breaks the key 7 level.

India

There is a major development in India.  India has revoked the special status given to the state of Jammu & Kashmir.  Further the state will be bifurcated and there will be two new union territories instead of two new states. This is of significance not only to India but internationally.  The reason is that Pakistan claims that Kashmir should become part of Pakistan.  This will make radical Islamic forces invigorated in Pakistan.  Investors need to remember that India and Pakistan are two nuclear armed neighbors that have fought three wars on the issue of Kashmir.

The latest move from India is a very bold move to permanently  solve the Kashmir issue.

As the U. S. engages in trade war with China, China is fully aligned with Pakistan against India on the Kashmir issue.

There is potential for this issue to escalate and impact the financial markets.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold is spiking as a safe haven on India and China issues.   The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.  Gold has broken above the resistance zone.  Smart money is inactive perhaps because there is high probability of the dollar becoming stronger that will eventually hurt gold.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil on yuan breaking 7 level.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is selling into the rally that ensued after good APHA earnings headline.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are spiking up as safe have money moves into bonds.

Japanese yen is rising as safe haven money moves to yen.   This is causing the dollar to be slightly weaker against some currencies but the dollar is very strong against yuan.

Gold futures are at $1474, silver futures are at $16.45, and oil futures are $54.83.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2918 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are down 377 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 22% – 32% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 15%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.’

 

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