WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: SEASONAL STRENGTH AND MOMO BUYING BUT SMART MONEY SELLS INTO THE STRENGTH $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

GDP IN LINE, MOMO BUYING AND A LOOK AT JANUARY 2020

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

GDP

Q3 GDP-third estimate came at 2.1% vs. 2.1% consensus.

A Look At January 2020

The following factors will be in play in early January 2020:

  • The momo crowd will continue to buy on positive momentum.
  • Many investors have held off selling because of tax reasons.  Investors simply want to postpone capital gains into 2020.  Such investors will sell if the momentum turns negative.
  • New Year money will pour into 401(k) and pension accounts.
  • Wall Street will issue more bullish projections.
  • On any further rise, sentiment is likely to reach an extreme.   An extreme positive sentiment is traditionally a sell signal.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Momentum continues to stay positive, so the momo crowd continues to buy.  From a seasonality point of view, it is a positive period between now and the year-end.  However the market is very overbought and vulnerable to the downside.

In the early trade, the momo crowd is buying.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

Natural gas stocks are forming a megaphone bottom.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest is FCG.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open higher and can easily swing either way.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1483, silver futures are at $1715, and oil futures are $60.99.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3223, 3256  and 3288; support levels are 3200, 3143 and 3125.

DJIA futures are up 50 points.

REPO ISSUES, TRUMP IMPEACHED, INDIA PROTESTS, MARIJUANA BILL STALLED

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Repo Issues

Among some market participants, there has been significant concern about Fed repos.  Some services have been using this as a tactic to scare investors and gain subscribers.  Over the last few weeks, we have received a large number of questions on this issue.

In the Morning Capsule, we write only about those things that are important to investors and ignore the noise.  The repo issues were simply noise until the year-end.

Now the year-end is here.  At the year-end demand for cash goes up.  It is the Fed’s job to make sure the banking system has enough liquidity to meet the higher  year-end needs.  The Fed has made some changes in its procedures and appears to be on track to make sure there are no issues.  However, a very small probability still exists that liquidity issues in money markets may crop up.

If such issues occur and there is a substantial drop in the stock market (not likely), the plan is to buy TQQQ for a short term trade.  A post will be issued if a trade materializes.

Trump Impeached

As expected, the House impeached Trump.  Now the matter goes to the Senate for a trial.

As we have previously written, impeachment is not expected to have any material effect on the markets.

India Protests

Modi’s government is getting its first real challenge in the last several years as protests against a new citizenship law spreads.  The government has imposed curfew like restrictions in several areas.  India’s economy was already weakening.  This will have a negative effect.

India is covered in ZYX Emerging.  We recently downgraded India before these protests.  Now that call appears fortuitous.

In ZYX Global, India position was exited on November 29th for those with short to medium term horizon and willing to trade.

If Indian stock market falls in the buy zone for EPI, it will likely be a buying opportunity.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims came at 234K vs. 226K consensus.  This is a leading indicator and carries a heavier weight in our models.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

EIA reported data that was bullish for oil after API reported similar data that was bearish for oil.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo is opposed to SAFE Banking Act that is designed to help the marijuana industry.  Marijuana tocks are being sold on the news.  In the early trade the momo crowd is selling.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can easily swing either way.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1478, silver futures are at $17.02, and oil futures are $60.76.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 3200  and 3223; support levels are 3143, 3125 and 3100.

DJIA futures are down 5  points.

TRUMP IMPEACHMENT VOTE TODAY — SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE MARKETS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Impeachment

The House vote on Trump impeachment is ahead.  The House is projected to impeach Trump on partisan lines with no Republican voting for impeachment.  The next step is in the Senate.

The impeachment is likely to have minimal impact on the markets. The reason is that the Senate is controlled by the Republicans and the Republicans are committed to blocking an impeachment.

Wall Street Consensus

Wall Street consensus is that Trump will win re-election.  Wall Street’s consensus also assumes that the impeachment will have  no negative effect on votes for Trump in the 2020 election.

If Wall Street consensus turns out to be wrong, it will be a negative for the market.

In our analysis, so far from the available data the net effect of impeachment is zero on Trump re-election.

Liquidity

Liquidity is about to dry up due to the upcoming holidays.  This will make it easier to push the market in either direction.  Historically, between now and the end of the year the market is pushed upwards as retail investors get in the holiday spirit and buy.  Professional investors go on vacation leaving trading in the hands of junior personnel.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

Gold

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API reported a crude build of 4.7M barrels vs. consensus of a draw of 1.29M barrels.  This data is bearish for oil.

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

MLPs are tracing a head and shoulder bottom.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest is AMLP.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the stock market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates, bonds and currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1476, silver futures are at $16.97, and oil futures are $60.55.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 3200 and 3223; support levels are 3143, 3125 and 3100.

DJIA futures are up 27 points.

ARE YOU COUNTING ON THE STOCK MARKET FOR YOUR FUTURE — TAKE A LOOK AT THIS 25 YEAR CHART FIRST

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Housing Starts

Housing Starts came at 1365K vs. 1340K consensus.  This shows that  housing is strong.

Building permits are a leading indicator. Building Permits came at 1482K vs. 1400K consensus.

Are You Counting On The Stock Market For Your Future?

Right now a vast majority of investors, including Wall Street, are suffering from the recency bias. As human beings, most of us suffer from the recency bias. In recency bias, the presumption is that whatever has been happening recently will continue to happen going forward.

For a decade, the stock market has gone straight up. Due to recency bias, most investors and the Wall Street are assuming that the stock market will continue to go up.

To balance the recency bias, prudent investors ought to look at the history. History does not always repeat itself but is often instructive to at least partially shed the recency bias and become somewhat objective. Let’s explore with the help of a 25 year chart.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated 25 year chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX). Similar conclusions can be drawn from the chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • There is no close historical parallel to the current stock market in recent history.
  • The stock markets all over the world have been rigged by the central banks.
  • There is one striking aspect in which the present day stock market is very similar to the year 1999.
  • As the chart shows, in 1999, the stock market was primarily controlled by the momo (momentum) crowd. 20 years later, in 2019, the stock market is primarily controlled by the momo crowd again.
  • Stock market analysts are geniuses in that they can explain anything with fully legitimate looking, and seemingly well-reasoned arguments.
  • Nobody wants to talk about the momo crowd because it is not in the interest of the establishment. The stock market is going up not because of higher earnings, not because the economy is getting significantly better and not because valuations are low. The buying in the stock market is occurring simply because it is going up. If analysts were to admit this simple fact, there would not be much need for their seemingly sophisticated analysis.
  • The most instructive point from the chart is a big downturn in the market, starting in the year 2000 for three years.
  • The chart shows Arora sell signal and calls to go 100% in cash, buy inverse ETFs and short sell for those who could in the year 2007 prior to 2008 crash. In 2007 it was not the momo crowd in the stock market but the crowd in housing related securities and speculators in housing. The present period is not like 2007.
  • In 2008, most portfolios lost half of their value.
  • The chart shows Arora signal to buy aggressively in 2009 which turned out to be the bottom.
  • Markets are difficult because when it is all said and done they depend on mass human psychology which is difficult to predict. There is no guarantee that we will be able to successfully predict the next downturn in advance. For this reason, it is important to have some protective strategies for long term portfolios in place now.
  • The chart shows RSI divergence. In plain English, it means that as the stock market has risen, internal momentum is not keeping up the pace. This is a reason for caution.
  • The chart shows that the volume is low. This indicates lack of conviction in the rally. This is another reason for caution.
  • Right now, investors keep on buying popular stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) at a rapid pace. The strong buying by the momo crowd in these stocks suggests that the risk in these stocks is drastically under appreciated.
  • There is strong buying in semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Intel (INTC) and Micron (MU). Again the momo crowd is under appreciating the risks.

What Does it All Mean?

There is an old saying in technical analysis, ‘The trend is your friend.’ Right now the trend is up. It is important to stay invested to take advantage of the bull market. However it is more important to not be complacent, have some protection in place and have the mind set to overcome the recency bias to change quickly if the market conditions change.

The biggest mistake you can make is to have the mindset that the stock market will always go up and downturns will always be brief.

Consider getting ahead of the curve by learning now adaptive models that have a proven track record in both bull and bear markets.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in the early trade.  Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

Gold

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.   Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is lightly buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can quickly swing in either direction.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up  and bonds are ticking  down.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1482, silver futures are at $17.10, and oil futures are $60.50.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3200  and 3223; support levels are 3143, 3125 and 3100.

DJIA futures are up 13 points.

REDUCE HEDGES AND CASH, BEWARE OF THE PERIL FOR INVESTORS IN BEING PRO OR ANTI TRUMP ON THE TRADE DEAL

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Reduce Hedges And Cash

Please see ‘What To Do Now’ section.  It was prudent to buy some insurance ahead of December 15th deadline for the trade deal.  Now the trade deal is done, it is time to take off the additional insurance.  Typically it is better to take off the insurance on strong down days, there is not a pressing need to act today depending upon how you implemented the insurance.

Trade Deal

The difference of opinion between two groups of investors could not be farther apart on the trade deal with China. Pro Trumpers are having their moment in the sun and salivating at the prospect of major new gains in the stock market to come. Anti Trumpers are convinced that Trump’s house-of-cards will fall taking the market down with it. For investors in both groups, there is peril in their opinions. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for the long term annotated chart of ETF (DIA) that represents Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Please click here for the short term annotated chart of ETF (DIA).

For the sake of full transparency, both charts were previously published and no changes have been made. Similar conclusions can be drawn from charts of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • I am politically agnostic. My sole job is to help investors.
  • When I gave a “buy” signal on Donald Trump’s election at a time when many were predicting a big stock market drop, it was at first met with incredulity. When shortly thereafter I called for a high-probability scenario of the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 30,000 points in Trump’s first term, I received a ton of hate mail. I have subsequently repeated that call in Trump’s first term several times.  Now, a few years later, Dow 30,000 calls are commonplace
  • As the first chart shows, the stock market has significantly risen under Trump. Those who sold on Trump’s election lost out on big gains. Those who did not properly invest because of their feelings about Trump also did not partake of the profits in the stock market.
  • Just because pro Trumpers made huge gains in the stock market does not mean looking in the rear view mirror and projecting forward is the right thing to do.
  • From the chart, the first target for the stock market is Dow Jones Industrial Average 30,000 and the second target for Dow Jones Industrial Average is over 32,000.
  • Many technically oriented investors sold aggressively when the stock market recently became overbought and missed out on the gains since then.
  • The first chart shows that the stock market was overbought about a month ago but there was room to run. To determine overbought and oversold conditions, RSI is the best indicator for a number of reasons. However in addition to the science of using RSI, it is also an art that investors ought to learn. In general, in trending markets, often overbought markets become more overbought.
  • The second chart shows the VUD indicator which is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand of stocks in real time. After Trump’s tweet that the trade deal was near, even though stock market has risen, there has been net selling as shown by orange on the chart.

An Objective Look At The Trade Deal

Here are the salient points for the stock market investors from an objective look at the trade deal.

  • It is a win for Trump and investors in the short term.
  • From a longer term perspective, it is a weak deal for the Unites States and a strong deal for China.
  • Even under optimist projections from pro Trumpers, China will buy $200 billion more of U. S. goods over the next two years. Before getting excited about this large number, consider that the U. S. economy is a $20 trillion economy. The additional exports are about 1% of U. S. GDP.
  • In the absence of a trade deal, China would have still bought some of these goods. China needs to feed its population. Some of these goods would have been exported to other countries.
  • There are not many details available about the trade deal. It may turn out that the $200 billion number is too optimistic.
  • When it is all said and done, the net impact of this deal per year may be only about 0.25% of the U. S. economy.
  • Make no mistake; this market is controlled by the momo (momentum) crowd. The momo crowd had already pushed this stock market to new highs in advance of this deal.
  • Considering the small impact of this trade deal on the U. S. economy, the trade deal is more than discounted in the already high level of the stock market.
  • The best way to think about this deal is to see it as a cease fire in a battle that will continue for years to come for global dominance between China and the U. S.
  • In the long run, this deal is stronger for China because it gives China more time to catch up with the U. S.

What does it all mean?

Here are some things for investors to consider.

  • Our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with a proven track record in both bull and bear markets remains cautiously bullish.
  • Prudent investors bought insurance in advance of the trade deal. Now there is less of a need for such insurance. The insurance was bought with hedges or more cash. Paradoxically as these hedges are unwound and the cash is redeployed, it can fuel the market even higher.
  • Watch the price action in mega-caps such as Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL).
  • Semiconductors have been the leading indicators. For this reason consider watching AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Intel (INTC) and Applied Materials (AMAT).
  • Segmented money flows are like an X-ray of the stock market. Segmented money flows show that smart money is lightly selling into the strength. This indicates that the smart money believes there is more risk in this market than generally believed.
  • Take advantage of short term trading opportunities as they arise in addition to long term investments. This reduces risk.
  • If you have not already done so, make sure you have appropriate risk control measures in place.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.  Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

Gold

There is no discernable smart money or momo crowd activity in gold.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking  down.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1481, silver futures are at $17.05, and oil futures are $60.11.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3200 and 3223; support levels are 3143, 3125 and 3100.

DJIA futures are up 73 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 20% – 30% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 0% – 10%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

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