WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: STOCKS FALL AS CHINA RETALIATES, AGGRESSIVE BUYING IN GOLD $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

WAIT FOR POWELL, THREE FED PRESIDENTS AGAINST RATE CUT, CHINA HITS BACK

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Powell Speech

Powell will deliver his much awaited speech at 10:00 am ET.  Investors should not ignore the possibility of prepared text being released in advance.

This is the most important event for the market at this time.

Opposition

Three regional Fed presidents have come out against a rate cut.  At a minimum, this shows that there is dissent.

China Hits Back

China is hitting back at the U. S. with additional tariffs.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is behaving like a yo-yo.  The momo crowd was aggressively buying stocks in the early morning.  The momo crowd started aggressively selling stocks after the momentum reversed due to China tariff news.

Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold is seeing buying on China tariff news.  The momo crowd is buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil is falling on China news.

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

A number of technical patterns are developing but we are not publishing them because everything can change after Powell speech.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is undeterminable because there is no historical precedence for Powell speech in such market conditions.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are mixed.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1513, silver futures are at $17.10, and oil futures are $53.69.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are down 117 points.

STOCK MARKET WANTS POWELL TO BOW TO TRUMP — A CARNAGE IF POWELL DEFIANT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims came at 209K vs. 218K consensus.  This indicates economy is still strong.

ECB

European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to take more stimulating measures as shown by the minutes.

Jackson Hole

The Fed Chair Powell has come under increasing pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates by as much as 100 basis points. Powell will give his speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow morning. The stock market expects Powell to bow to Trump. Wall Street consensus may be right and the bubble in the stock and bond markets may inflate further, but prudent investors ought to be prepared if Powell is defiant. If Powell is defiant, expect carnage in the stock market. Let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of long bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that there has been a parabolic move in bonds.
  • The chart shows that as parabolic move progressed, RSI became extremely overbought.
  • After RSI became extremely overbought, it traced a divergence as shown on the chart. This was a classic sell signal.
  • The chart shows that The Arora Report gave at the very top a signal to short sell bond ETF TLT. The Arora Report also gave a signal to buy leveraged inverse bond ETF (TBT) for those who could not short. Inverse ETF TBT goes up when bonds go down.
  • The chart shows that the trade is profitable so far.
  • Our plan is to take risk control measures to protect profits.
  • Stocks have gone up as bonds have gone up on expectations of a rate cut.
  • The rally in stocks has been tempered due to concerns about yield curve inversion.

What Does It Mean?

Several simple facts have not gained much publicity in the media. Professionals already know this but mom and pop ought to pay attention.

  • Traditionally the Fed can control short term rates.
  • Just because the Fed lowers the Fed fund rate, it does not mean that the long bond yields will also fall.
  • The Fed does have tools to impact long bond yield but they are not routinely used in the United States.
  • Generally the yield curve inverts because the short term rates go up while long term rates do not go up.
  • This time it is different in that the yield curve has inverted because long term rates have fallen due to heavy demand for the long bond.

The probability is very high that Powell will at least partially bow to Trump. However if Powell is defiant, expect carnage in the stock market.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is selling gold in the early trade.  Historically momo crowd buys gold ahead of a Fed event.

Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The U. S. plans to release 10 million barrels from SPR next week.  This is restraining buying in oil

There is no material smart money or momo crowd activity in oil.

Marijuana

There is no material smart money of momo crowd activity in marijuana.

Technical Patterns

None of note

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral  but expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1508, silver futures are at $17.04, and oil futures are $56.15.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2950, 3020 and 3050; support levels are 2925, 2918 and 2860.

DJIA futures are up 35 points.

STOCK MARKET WOULD HAVE BEEN 10,000 POINTS HIGHER IF TRUMP HAD NOT DONE THE RIGHT THING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

FOMC Minutes

FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 pm ET and may be a market moving event.

Up 10,000

Stock market would have been 10,000 points higher if Trump had not done the right thing

First and foremost, I am politically agnostic. My sole job is to help investors. This column is neither for nor against President Trump but simply goes through scenario analysis that has contributed to The Arora Report’s success.

The stock market Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would have been 10,000 points higher if President Trump had not done the right thing. Obama, Bush and Clinton should have done it but did not do it. The right thing is to stand up to China. Before you send me hate mail, please understand that these are not my words. I am just paraphrasing what President Trump said when he was with the leader of Romania.

Is Trump right? The answer to this question helps investors understand what may happen to the stock market if the trade war with China is resolved. Let’s examine with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA). Investors should use charts of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) instead of a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA. The reason the chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average is being used is because that is what Trump referred to.

Note the following:

  • The chart shows a trendline starting from Arora buy signal. The Arora Report was a rare credible source that did not buy into Wall Street consensus at that time of a Hillary Clinton win and predicted a potential win by Trump. After Trump won, most sources were predicting a big stock market fall; at that time The Arora Report gave a buy signal. Hindsight shows that that signal was spot on. The signal was not an endorsement of Trump but simply based on our proven algorithms.
  • Take a look on the right side of the chart as to where the trendline is now. The trendline shows that if the trend would have continued, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would have been at 31,000 right now. This would have made Trump half right.
  • The chart shows the start of a parabolic phase in the stock market.
  • The parabolic phase would have likely continued if it were not for certain policies adopted by Trump.
  • The chart shows failure of the parabolic phase.
  • Based on my over 30 years in the markets, I can confidently say that more likely than not another parabolic phase may have started in the stock market if it was not for the trade war with China. After all, this market is controlled by the momo (momentum) crowd.
  • A successful parabolic phase would have carried the market higher by 7,000 to 10,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average points. This would have made Trump 100% right.
  • Without a trade war, it is highly likely that at this time Apple (AAPL) stock would have been at $260, Facebook (FB) at $250 and Amazon (AMZN) at $2,500. Among semiconductor stocks, Intel (INTC) would have been at $60, AMD (AMD) at $40 and Micron (MU) at $65.
  • The biggest Chinese ecommerce stock Alibaba (BABA) would have likely been at $250 now if there was no trade war.

Fundamentals

By now you may be thinking that technicals support Trump but what about the fundamentals? When Dow Jones Industrial Average was 16,000 and nobody was talking about Dow Jones Industrial Average at 30,000, I was the only one laying out a scenario for Dow 30,000. I have repeated that call subsequently several times.   As an example, please see prior post: Here’s the case for Dow 30,000 in Trump’s first term .

Here is a quote from one of my prior writings, “The biggest single factor in the long-term direction of stocks is earnings growth. The current consensus for S&P 500 Index SPX,   operating earnings, are $133 per share. According to the Arora Report’s analysis of Trump’s proposals, tax cuts could add about $13 to S&P 500 earnings. Deregulation could add another $7. If gross domestic product growth were to accelerate to 4%, S&P 500 earnings could reach as high as $190 by the end of Trump’s first term. Given the potential growth in the economy, in spite of the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio may stay in the range of 18 to 21. A P/E of 20 applied to $190 in earnings leads to 3,800 in S&P 500. (The benchmark index is now at around 2,351.) For the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, that translates to reaching over 33,450 by the end of 2021, Trump’s first term.”

Investors ought to note that that U. S. economy is about 70% consumer based. The U. S. consumer remains strong as evidenced by better than expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW) and Target (TGT).

What Does It Mean

Start with Arora’s 3rd Law of Investing and Trading: Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.

If the trade war is successfully resolved and the resolution is not just a soft resolution to get Trump re-elected, probability is better than 70% that the stock market will hit DJIA 30,000 in Trump’s first term. However, the probability of a good resolution of the trade war, in our analysis at The Arora Report, is only about 25%.

If the trade war is not resolved and a Democrat other than Biden such as Warren or Sanders starts leading in the polls, the probability is better than 50% of a several thousand DJIA point drop in the stock market.

The situation is further complicated by the shenanigans of the central banks and trends towards negative interest rates. I have previously written The U.S. stock market is like a drunken party — stay for a while but know when to leave. This is the reason that investors should follow a proven adaptive model with a successful track record in both bull and bear stock markets. An example of such a model is ZYX Asset Allocation Model. In plain English, adaptive means a model that automatically changes with market conditions. Under present market conditions, static models that have previously worked may not work now because market conditions have changed.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

There is no discernable smart money or momo crowd activity in gold.

Oil

Oil is moving higher on surprise inventory draw.  The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

There is no discernable smart money or momo crowd activity in marijuana.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1509, silver futures are at $17.04, and oil futures are $56.78.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2925, 2950 and 3020; support levels are 2918, 2860 and 2840.

DJIA futures are up 245 points.

THE MARKET MOVING JACKSON HOLE POWELL SPEECH AHEAD

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jackson Hole

Central bankers are meeting at Jackson Hole.  An important speech by Powell is ahead.  The consensus is that Powell will say that the Fed is ready to cut rates more.  The market expects the speech to be highly dovish. If the speech is hawkish, expect a carnage in bond and stock markets.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is lightly buying in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in gold.  Gold is churning in the absence of any news.

Oil

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in oil.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can easily swing in either direction.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1513, silver futures are at $16.96, and oil futures are $56.04.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2950, 3020 and 3050; support levels are 2918, 2860 and 2840.

DJIA futures are up 25 points.

TRUMP RUNS THE MARKET UP BUT THE CHART TELLS THE REAL STORY

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Runs Up The Market

It is no secret that President Trump watches the stock market. It is less well understood that he has an uncanny sense of stock market timing. Every time the flood gates are about to open for the stock market to the down side, he comes up with a statement to arrest the fall of the stock market. Further, he follows through with more statements to extend the bounce.

I am politically agnostic. My sole job is to help investors. Having said that even opponents of Trump with some objectivity, ought to give him credit for his sense of market timing. Here is the key question, “What do all these gyrations mean for the stock market going forward?” Let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Even though Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the most popular index, for analysis purposes, investors ought to focus on S&P 500 because the most money is tied to S&P 500 (SPX). Those investors with heavy concentration in technology may consider Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the support zone. To learn why investors should use support zones and not just specific support levels, please see a prior post.
  • The chart shows that when the stock market swooned on concerns related to inverted yield curve; it did not even penetrate the support zone. This is a big positive for the stock market.
  • The stock market has mostly recovered from the swoon primarily due to Trump statements.
  • The chart shows the Arora buy signal given on Christmas Eve that has turned out to be the low of this cycle.
  • The chart shows four Arora signals given before the recent market drop to take profits on select positions, protect the long term portfolios with hedges, take profits on a position in China ETF (ASHR) and do a short term trade. The short term trade was to short sell Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ or buy leveraged inverse Nasdaq 100 ETF (SQQQ) for those who could not short sell. SQQQ is an inverse ETF that goes up when the stock market goes down. Profits have now been taken on this short term trade. New short term trades on bond ETFs (TLT) and (TBT) have been started.
  • The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows that from here the market can go either way.
  • The chart shows churning with high volume. This indicates indecision. Right now volume shows that bulls and bears are in balance but both have higher conviction than before.
  • Apple (AAPL) stock is in the cross hair of the trade war. However Apple stock has rallied on the strength of Tim Cook having dinner with President Trump and President Trump understanding that Chinese tariffs may put Apple at a disadvantage compared to Samsung (SSNLF).
  • It appears that the deadline for the U. S. companies to comply with the ban on Huawei has been extended by 90 days. This is benefiting semiconductor ETF (SMH), Micron (MU), AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC).
  • As the market moves up, popular stocks such as Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are participating. This is a positive for the stock market.

The Real Story

The chart tells the real story. The real story is indecision where bulls and bears are roughly matched.

For these market conditions, investors ought to use a comprehensive adaptive model that has proven itself in both bull and bear markets to guide them. An example of such a model with 10 inputs is ZYX Asset Allocation Model that produced significant positive returns using inverse ETFs during the last bear market and has consistently stayed bullish in this long bull market with appropriate protections as needed. I have previously written “Investors who do not have appropriate cash levels and hedges in place for these market conditions ought to consider taking protective steps on strong up days. Investors ought to resist the temptation of selling or establishing new hedges when the market is down 800 Dow points.” Now that the market has bounced back, this is the time to start putting some hedges and start raising some cash if you have not previously done so.

Consider guarding against the natural human tendency of selling on strong down days and buying when the market jumps up.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stock in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Money is moving out of gold as interest rates rise.

The momo crowd is selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil on hopes of stimulus by central banks and governments.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can easily reverse.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1509, silver futures are at $16.94, and oil futures are $55.71.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2925, 2950 and 3020; support levels are 2918, 2860 and 2840.

DJIA futures are up 291 points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 22% – 32% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 15%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

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