WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: STRONG GDP NUMBER JUST RELEASED SETS UP THE STAGE FOR TRUMP’S FUTURE SUCCESS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $BTC.X $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: STRONG GDP NUMBER JUST RELEASED SETS UP THE STAGE FOR TRUMP’S FUTURE SUCCESS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $BTC.X $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

STRONG GDP NUMBER JUST RELEASED SETS UP THE STAGE FOR TRUMP’S FUTURE SUCCESS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Strong GDP Number

Third estimate of GDP came at 3.2% vs. 3.3% consensus.  The basic foundation of Trump’s presidency is to increase GDP growth to about 4%.  If this happens, it will be a big departure from the recent trend.  We have previously provided you with a 50 year chart of GDP growth. Click here for the chart.  The strong GDP number sets up the stage for acceleration in growth.

Oil

EIA data is supportive of strength in oil.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.

Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.

Technical Patterns

None of note

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can reverse quickly.

Euro is stronger.

Bonds and interest rates are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1267, silver futures are at $16.18, and oil futures are $57.69.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2700 and 2740; support levels are 2688, 2661, and 2631.

DJIA futures are up 61 points.

MOMO BUYS AS SENATE PASSES TAX BILL, POSITIVE SEASONALS, OIL INVENTORIES FALL

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks this morning in early trade on the Senate passing the tax bill.  Due to procedural error, the House will vote on the tax bill again.

Seasonally, the rest of this week is positive for stocks.  The ‘smart money’ is inactive.

Oil Inventories Fall

API data shows that oil inventories fell 5.222 million barrels vs. a fall of 3.518 million barrels consensus. The data is causing significant buying by the momo crowd in oil.

The smart money is inactive.

EIA data which is considered more authoritative will be released at 10:30 am ET.

Gold

There is buying in gold on concerns about rising U. S. debts as tax reform passes.  The momo crowd is buying.  The smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly reverse.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1269, silver futures are at $16.28, and oil futures are $57.84.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2700 and 2740; support levels are 2688, 2661, and 2631.

DJIA futures are up 94  points.

TAX BILL VOTE, FOR A CHANGE MILDER MOMO BUYING IN STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tax Bill Vote

The house will vote on the tax bill around 1:30 pm ET.  In theory this should already be discounted in stock prices.  However lately anytime there is positive news about tax reform that is already fully anticipated, the momo crowd buys stocks aggressively and runs them up.  There is no way to tell what the momo crowd will do today.  During this stage, investors ought to be concerned about ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’

Stocks

Recently the momo crowd has been aggressive buyers of stocks.  For a change, in the early trade, the momo buying is mild.  The smart money is lightly selling.

Housing Starts

Housing starts came at 1297K vs. 1259K consensus.

Building permits came at 1298K vs. 1280K consensus.  Building permits is a leading indicator and carries heavier weight in our timing model.

Gold

Trading in gold is listless.  The smart money is inactive. There is only mild buying by momo.

Oil

Traders in oil are awaiting API inventory data; this data will be released at 4:30 pm ET.  As of this writing, the smart money is inactive.  The momo crowd is mildly buying.

South Africa

There is a lot of enthusiasm about the election of Cyril Ramaphosa.  However in the very short-term, the move in South African stocks may be overdone. But in the long-term this is a very big positive.

In ZYX Emerging Markets we are likely to upgrade South Africa and give a buy signal.

Technical Patterns

Bank stocks are tracing a Flag.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest is KBE.

Consumer stocks are tracing a Shooting Star. This is bearish. ETF of interest is XLP.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but expect the market to open higher.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Euro is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1264, silver futures are at $16.18, and oil futures are $57.67.

 

DJIA futures are up 52  points.

AGGRESSIVE MOMO BUYING IN STOCKS ON TAX REFORM, VOLATILITY IN INDIA

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Aggressive Momo Buying In Stocks On Tax Reform

Republicans have the votes to pass the tax reform.  The momo crowd is buying aggressively on the news. The ‘smart money’ is mostly inactive.

We will do a separate post on cross currents from tax reform.

Volatility In India

In India, in an election in the home state of Prime Minister Modi, the ruling party BJP has emerged victorious.  However, opposition party Congress scored more gains than expected.  This indicates that Modi’s momentum may be slowing.

Indian stocks fell as much as 2.6% but then rocketed back up 0.4%.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold.  The smart money is lightly selling gold on up spikes.

Oil And Natural Gas

The momo crowd is buying oil.

Natural gas has been hitting new lows.  This morning the momo crowd is buying natural gas.

Chili

Sebastian Pinera, a billionaire, won the second round of presidential elections.  This is generating a lot of positive sentiment for stocks in Chili.

South Africa

Traders are speculating that Cyril Ramaphosa, a billionaire, will become the next leader of the ruling party ANC.  This is generating positive sentiment in South African stocks.

Technical Patterns

Junior gold miners are tracing an Engulfing Line. This is bearish.  ETF of interest is GDXJ.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open positive.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1262, silver futures are at $16.11, and oil futures are $57.57.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2700 and 2740; support levels are 2688, 2661, and 2631.

DJIA futures are up 155  points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 19% – 29% and short to medium-term hedges of  15% – 25% and very short term hedges of 15%.

 

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