WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: THE WAIT FOR TRUMP AND XI MEETING, RUMORS OF A TRUCE, INDUSTRIAL HEMP $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: THE WAIT FOR TRUMP AND XI MEETING, RUMORS OF A TRUCE, INDUSTRIAL HEMP $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

THE WAIT FOR TRUMP AND XI MEETING, RUMORS OF A TRUCE, INDUSTRIAL HEMP

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

The Wait For Trump And Xi Meeting

The market is waiting for the results of the dinner meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Nothing else is likely to matter today. The consensus is building that the most likely scenario is a truce between the U. S. and China on trade war.  In this scenario, the U. S. will not impose new tariffs until April giving more time to talk to China about reforms.

Both sides want a deal.  The probability of market going higher on Monday is fairly high. However, do not ignore the smaller probability of the market falling on Monday if there is no deal.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks.  Smart money is selectively and lightly selling.

Gold

Gold is holding on to most of its gains.  Momo crowd is buying gold, smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil is coming under pressure because of Trump canceling his meeting with Putin.

Marijuana

Members of Congress have made progress in the farm bill in a way that should advance the cause of legalizing industrial hemp in the United States.  We have some stocks on our radar that may benefit but the smart money flows are negative in these stocks.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open lower. The market can swing based on rumors about the trade deal.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

Dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1226, silver futures are at $14.31, and oil futures are $50.72.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2765, 2800 and 2840; support levels are 2700, 2688 and 2661.

DJIA futures are down 74 points.

POWELL REFRAMES AND MARKET LOVES IT, PUTIN SENDS OIL LOWER

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Powell Reframes

Powell reframed and the market rallied strongly.  The market focused on two words in his speech.  He said interest rates are ‘just below’ the neutral level.  He also said that the estimates of neutral level vary over a wide range.  However the market ignored the second part of the statement and just assumed that the neutral level is nearby, and there will be fewer rate hikes in 2019.

In our analysis, there is not much difference between Powell’s statement in October that spooked the market and the latest statement that the market loves.  However in the short run it is not our opinion or your opinion that matters.  The market is like a beauty contest. It is the opinion of the judges that matters, the judge in this case is the consensus opinion.  The consensus opinion is often wrong and provides opportunities for those who are more astute and have better insight.  In the very short term, it does not pay to fight the consensus and it is usually better to flow with the consensus irrespective of one’s own opinion.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade even after yesterday’s strong rally.  Smart money selectively and lightly sold near the highs yesterday but is inactive in the early trade.

Gold

Gold loves lower interest rates.  Gold ran up on Powell’s statement on the assumption that interest rates will not rise as fast as the prior consensus.

Oil

Oil was hit hard earlier this morning on a comment by President Putin of Russia that he was just fine with the  low oil price.  Russia is a major oil producer. However the oil market is recovering as traders thought about the comment.  No matter what Putin says, he really wants higher oil prices.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks.  Selling from smart money has relented in select marijuana stocks but continues in others.  Therefore stock selection is very important and keeping quantities very small is prudent.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can easily swing positive.

Interest rates are falling and bonds are rising.

Gold futures are at $1231, silver futures are at $14.38, and oil futures are $50.98.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2740, 2765 and 2800; support levels are 2700, 2688 and 2661.

DJIA futures are down 19 points.

A KEY POWELL’S SPEECH, A RECORDTRADE DEFICIT AND GOOD GDP

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Key Powell Speech

We have been sharing with you that if the Fed changes its course, expect a rip-roaring rally.  Chairman Powell will give a key speech in New York at 12:00 pm ET. Please stay alert during this time in case their are opportunities.

Record Trade Deficit

U. S. Advance Goods Deficit widened to $77.2 billion in October a new record.

GDP

Q3 GDP-Second Estimate came at 3.5% vs. 3.6% consensus.  It is a good number but remember this is a lagging indicator.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  The smart money is inactive.

Gold

Money has flowed out of gold as the stock market has improved. The momo crowd has been selling gold. The smart money has been inactive.

Oil

Trading in oil is listless.

Marijuana

At least for the time being, smart money selling  in marijuana stocks has stopped.  But over the last few days smart money has been selling marijuana stocks. The momo crowd continues to buy marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to start out positive.  The market direction will depend on what Powell says.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is range bound.

Gold futures are at $1213, silver futures are at $14.28, and oil futures are $51.19.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2700, 2740 and 2765; support levels are 2688, 2661 and 2658.

DJIA futures are up 141 points.

TRUMP KILLS THE OPTIMISM

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Kills The Optimism

After the stock market had a good day yesterday, Trump killed the optimism with an off the cuff comment after the market close.  Trump said that he may impose tariffs on Chinese goods if negotiations with President Xi of China do not succeed at the G 20 meeting that is coming up.

Trump made matters worse by suggesting that 10% duties could be placed on mobile phones like iPhone made by Apple (AAPL) and laptops made in China.  Apple is a major component of indexes.  Apple was hit on the comment in the after hours.

Is Trump simply negotiating in public or is this his real position?  There is no way to know with certainty.  Investors should not count on consensus opinion.  The consensus on Wall Street yesterday was that Trump would take a softer stance and no new tariffs would be imposed.  Trump changed all of that with his comments after the market close.

The best course is to pay attention to ‘What To Do Now’ section below and wait to see what really happens.  If Trump backs off expect a huge rally, probably on Monday or even before that if there is a statement from Trump or credible rumors.  On the other hand if negotiations get ugly, expect a big drop in stocks.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling this morning. The smart money is neutral.

Gold

Trading in gold is listless.

Oil

Trading in oil is listless ahead of API data due to be released at 4:30 pm ET.

Marijuana

The momo crowd continues to buy marijuana stocks.  The smart money is selectively selling marijuana stocks.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can quickly turn positive.

Interest rate, bonds and currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1221, silver futures are at $14.21, and oil futures are $51.61.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2688, 2700 and 2740; support levels are 2658, 2631 and 2615.

DJIA futures are down 98  points.

REBOUND, OPTIMISM OVER ITALY WILLING TO COMPROMISE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Rebound

In the very short term, the stock market is oversold.  This morning in the early trade, it is staging a relief rally. Relief rallies are common for oversold markets.

Italy Willing To Compromise

Italy has signaled that it is willing to compromise with the European Union on the budget deficit.  Italian bonds and stocks are surging.

This is creating optimism in Europe that is being carried to the U. S.

Brexit

Prime Minister May has succeeded at getting a Brexit deal from E. U. However there is significant opposition to the deal in the U. K.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Trading in gold is listless.

Oil

Oil is seeing buying from smart money.  The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks in the early trade.  The smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Gold futures are at $1225, silver futures are at $14.25, and oil futures are $51.32.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2661, 2688 and 2700; support levels are 2631, 2615 and 2594.

DJIA futures are up 227 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 23% – 33% and short to medium-term hedges of  10% – 15% and short term hedges of 3%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

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