Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.
BUYING ON STRONG JOBS DATA, TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Strong Jobs Data
Nonfarm Private Payrolls came at 202K vs. 192K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture in the United States is very strong.
On the strong jobs data, there is aggressive buying of U. S. stocks.
Tariffs Go Into Effect
Tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods have gone into effect. China has imposed retaliatory tariffs.
In two weeks, another $16 billion of tariffs may be imposed on Chinese goods.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks as of this writing. The smart money is lightly selling into the strength.
Gold
As is the momo crowd’s pattern to buy gold on the release of strong jobs data, the momo crowd is buying gold. The smart money is inactive.
Oil
Oil got hit on very bearish inventory data. However, the momo crowd is again buying on the dip. The smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral and can easily swing either way.
Interest rates, bonds and currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1255, silver futures are at $16.03, and oil futures are $72.46.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2740, 2765 and 2800; support levels are 2700, 2688 and 2661.
DJIA futures are down 31 points.
OPTIMISM OVER AN AUTO DEAL WITH EUROPE TURNS AROUND THE MARKET AFTER A SEA OF RED IN ASIA
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Sea Of Red
There has been a sea of red in equities in Asia over trade war concerns.
Optimism In Europe
The market has turned around on the report of a proposal of no tariffs on the trade of autos between the U. S. and Europe. This idea has been floated before and there is no way to know if the idea will take hold. It appears to have Trump’s support.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks. The smart money is inactive.
Fed Minutes
Fed minutes of the last meeting will be released at 2:00 pm ET. This is likely to be a market moving event.
Gold
The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold. The smart money is inactive.
Oil
The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil. The smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly flip negative on news.
Dollar, interest rates and bonds are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1257, silver futures are at $16.09, and oil futures are $74.17.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2740, 2765 and 2800; support levels are 2700, 2688 and 2661.
DJIA futures are up 155 points.
NEW QUARTER MONEY BUYING EVERYTHING
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
New Quarter Money Buying Everything
Yesterday morning when DJIA was down 186 points we wrote:
Historically today should be a positive day. New money will pour into the market in the first couple of days of the new quarter. Usually such buying occurs in the afternoon. At a minimum expect such buying to cushion the selling by the momo crowd this morning.
That call has now proven spot on. New quarter money poured in buying stocks and reversed the market.
The new quarter money appears to be blindly buying everything this morning including stocks, oil and gold.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. The smart money is inactive.
Gold
Gold is seeing a bounce from an oversold condition on buying by new quarter money.
Oil
Oil is seeing aggressive buying by the momo crowd on top of buying by new quarter money. As of this writing oil is breaking above $75.
China Talks Up Yuan
China is talking up its currency yuan. This is creating positive sentiment.
Germany
Merkel has resolved immigration related differences with another partner in her coalition. This is adding to positive sentiment.
Technical Patterns
Small caps are tracing an Engulfing Line. This is bullish. ETF of interest is IWM.
Industrial stocks are tracing an Engulfing Line. This is bullish. ETF of interest is XLI.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but due to low liquidity in a half day pre-holiday session, volatility can increase and the indicator can turn negative.
Interest rates, bonds and currencies are range bound.
The euro is stronger.
Gold futures are at $1249, silver futures are at $16.04, and oil futures are $75.10.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2740, 2765 and 2800; support levels are 2700, 2688 and 2661.
DJIA futures are up 124 points.
CONCERN THAT TRUMP WILL NOT BACK DOWN, MOMO SELLS, EUROPE ON EDGE
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Concern That Trump Will Not Back Down
There is concern that Trump will not back down and impose tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods on or before July 6.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively selling this morning. The smart money is inactive.
Positive Seasonals
Historically today should be a positive day. New money will pour into the market in the first couple of days of the new quarter. Usually such buying occurs in the afternoon. At a minimum expect such buying to cushion the selling by the momo crowd this morning.
Europe On Edge
European stocks are seeing a sea of red on concerns that Angela Merkel may not survive as her coalition in Germany may breakup.
Mexico
Leftist Andres Obrador won an easy victory in Mexico’s election.
In our analysis, this may make it easier for Trump to negotiate NAFTA creating an opportunity in Mexico.
Gold
Gold is under pressure on a stronger dollar.
Oil
Some steam is coming out of the oil rally on concern that Trump is pressuring Saudi to increase oil production.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can easily flip positive after the initial selloff.
Dollar is stronger.
Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.
Gold futures are at $1250, silver futures are at $16.94, and oil futures are $73.65.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2740, 2765 and 2800; support levels are 2700, 2688 and 2661.
DJIA futures are down 186 points.
WHAT TO DO NOW
Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 20% – 30% and short to medium-term hedges of 10% – 15% and very short term hedges of 10%.
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