(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.)
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT DATA
July 6, 2012
June non-farm private payrolls came at 80K vs 105K consensus. Whisper number was around 120K – 136K.
Employment picture in the U.S. is weaker than expected.
The stock market should go down on this number however bulls will argue that this weak number increases the chances of QE3 and attempt to run up the market.
In our analysis, the number is not weak enough to warrant a QE.
Gold futures are at $1601, silver futures are at $27.54, and oil futures are $85.28.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1358, 1368, and 1380; support levels are 1348, 1339, and 1330.
DJIA futures are down 70 points.
QE3 OFF THE TABLE AT LEAST FOR TODAY
July 5, 2012
ADP employment data was a surprise on the upside. In a perverse manner stocks, gold, silver, oil, and other commodities are falling. The theory is that because of better than expected employment data from ADP QE3 is off the table again.
ECB rate cut was as expected.
Bank of England pumps in another 50 billion pounds in to the economy as expected.
China announced a surprise rate cut but its positive effect is fading.
The mother of all numbers, the U.S. employment data for the month of June is on tap for tomorrow.
Gold futures are at $1600, silver futures are at $27.84, and oil futures are $87.11.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1368, 1380, and 1400; support levels are 1358, 1352, and 1348.
DJIA futures are down 44 points.
MARKETS IN THE HANDS OF JUNIOR CARE TAKERS
July 3, 2012
Big boys and girls are on vacation. Markets are very thin and in the hands of junior care takers.
When markets are so thin, it is easy to game them. However, such an environment can provide for good opportunities, so please stay alert but remember it is a short day closing at 1:00 pm ET.
Gold futures are at $1615, silver futures are at $27.99, and oil futures are $86.58.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1368, 1380, and 1400; support levels are 1352, 1348, and 1339.
DJIA futures are up 16 points.
WEAK DATA FROM CHINA TAKES STEAM OUT OF STOCK MARKET RALLY
July 2, 2012
From Wednesday last week we wrote that a 300 point swing was a possibility and a swing on the upside was more likely than a swing on the downside. The timing of the call was fortuitous. On Friday the U.S. stock market rallied about 300 points.
Today is the first day of the month when new money flows into the stock market. Unfortunately, China seems to complete with Europe these days as the originator of bad news. The official PMI in China fell to 50.2 from 50.4 last month. The PMI sub-index that measures export orders fell to 47.5 from 50.4. A number less than 50 is considered contraction.
This is of particular concern as Chinese PMI is a leading indicator that currently has heavy weight in our adaptive algorithms.
Gold futures are at $1593, silver futures are at $27.44, and oil futures are $83.86.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1368, 1380, and 1400; support levels are 1352, 1348, and 1339.
DJIA futures are down 3 points.
