Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.
QUADRUPLE WITCHING MAY REDUCE UPWARD PRESSURE ON THE STOCK MARKET NEXT WEEK
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Quadruple Witching
Today is quadruple witching. For practical purposes this will increase volatility as futures and options expire.
Please note that a large part of the rise in the stock market this week is attributable to book squaring ahead of quadruple witching. Often such moves reverse over the next few days.
Industrial Production
Industrial Production came at 0.1% vs. 0.4% consensus. This is a weak number. In theory, it should cause some selling. However the market is in the control of the momo crowd and this crowd cares only about momentum and nothing else.
Capacity Utilization came at 78.5% vs. 78.5% consensus.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade running gold over $1300. Smart money is inactive.
Oil
The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks. Smart money is lightly selling marijuana stocks.
Technical Patterns
Oil is tracing a weak inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is bullish. ETF of interest is USO.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.
Currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1301, silver futures are at $15.32, and oil futures are $57.89.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2840, 2860 and 2918; support levels are 2800, 2765 and 2740.
DJIA futures are up 60 points.
TRUMP – XI MEETING PUSHED BACK BUT MOMO STILL BUYING STOCKS
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Trump – Xi Meeting Delayed
The U. S. and China have pushed back the meeting between President Trump and President Xi.
In theory, this should have caused stocks to fall, the dollar and bonds to gain and the yuan to weaken. Very little of what should have happened is happening so far as of this writing. This is a prime example of what happens when momentum takes hold and the momo crowd is not paying attention to anything other than the momentum.
Historically when the momo crowd ignores the news, there is a delayed reaction after smart money starts selling aggressively.
Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims came at 229K vs. 225K consensus.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks. The smart money is lightly selling.
Gold
The breakout above $1,300 failed. As of this writing the momo crowd is aggressively selling gold and gold has fallen below $1,300. Smart money is inactive.
Oil
The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil. Oil has broken above $58. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks. Smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.
Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Gold futures are at $1293, silver futures are at $15.22, and oil futures are $58.56.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2840, 2860 and 2918; support levels are 2800, 2765 and 2740.
DJIA futures are down 46 points.
MORE GOOD INFLATION DATA, PELTZ JUMPING INTO MARIJUANA
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
More Good Inflation Data
Lately Producer Price Index (PPI) has been higher than the consensus. This raised the concern that prices at producer level were rising but were not being passed on to consumers. This scenario is leading to lower corporate earnings. However there is good news for investors this morning.
Core PPI came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus. This indicates that inflation at the producer level is moderating.
Durable Goods
Durable Goods Ex-transport came at -0.1% vs. +0.1% consensus. We leave out transports because their volatility masks the underlying trends.
Brexit
Prime Minister May suffered another defeat. Parliament is likely to vote again to show that the country does not want to leave the European Union on March 29 without a deal.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is buying stock. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
Gold has broken through the resistance at $1,300. The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold. Smart money is inactive.
Oil
Oil continues to see aggressive momo crowd buying. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
The well respected activist investor Nelson Peltz is joining Aurora Cannabis (ACB) as a strategic advisor. Mr. Peltz has significant experience in consumer packaged goods. He can help ACB with new partnerships. It is also significant that an investor of the caliber of Nelson Peltz is jumping into marijuana.
The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks. Smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open higher.
Interest are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.
Currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1306, silver futures are at $15.46, and oil futures are $57.70.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2840, 2860 and 2918; support levels are 2765, 2740 and 2700.
DJIA futures are up 99 points.
INFLATION UNDER CONTROL, OPTIMISM OVER TRADE TALKS, BREXIT
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Inflation Under Control
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus. This indicates that inflation is under control at the consumer level. This is positive for the market.
Optimism Over Trade Talks
There is a report that the Chinese have reached out to the U. S. for more discussions. This report caused stocks in Asia to rally.
Brexit
Prime Minister May has secured a new deal. The Parliament will vote on it later today.
The pound is volatile.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
The momo crowd continues to buy gold. Smart money is inactive.
So far gold has not succeeded in breaking the resistance at $1300.
Oil
Yesterday we shared with you that Saudi was cutting oil production. Oil continues to move up on that report.
The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
Arizona based Harvest Health (HARV) is buying Chicago based Verano for $850 million. This is the largest acquisition in the U. S. cannabis industry. Mergers and acquisitions are picking up in the marijuana space. In due course there will be many opportunities for investors. The Arora Report has an unrivaled record in identifying companies that get bought out. To date, 146 of The Arora Report companies have been bought out. A lot of M&A right now involves buying of privately held companies.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can easily swing either way.
Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is slightly weaker.
Gold futures are at $1299, silver futures are at $15.47, and oil futures are $57.24.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2800, 2840 and 2860; support levels are 2765, 2740 and 2700.
DJIA futures are down 39 points.
CONSUMER SPENDING AGAIN AFTER A SLUMP, SAUDI CUTS OIL PRODUCTION
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Consumer Spending Again
Retail Sales Ex-auto came a 0.9% vs. 0.2% consensus. This indicates that consumer is spending again after a slump. We exclude auto because the volatility of auto sales masks the underlying trends.
This is positive for the market.
China And India Bounce
Chinese stocks are bouncing up 1.9%.
Indian stocks are bounding up 1%.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Gold
Gold is meeting resistance at $1300. The momo crowd is buying. Smart money is inactive.
Oil
Saudi Arabia appears to be cutting oil production more than previously anticipated. This is causing an up move in oil. The momo crowd is buying oil. Smart money is inactive.
Marijuana
The momo crowd is aggressively buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.
Technical Patterns
None of note.
This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals. Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs 2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators. To learn more please click here.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral expect DJIA to open lower because BA stock is down due to a plane crash. Expect other indexes to open higher.
Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.
Currencies are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1295, silver futures are at $15.31, and oil futures are $56.57.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2765, 2800 and 2840; support levels are 2740, 2700 and 2688.
DJIA futures are down 224 points.
WHAT TO DO NOW
Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 19% – 31% and short to medium-term hedges of 5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5%.
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