(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.)
YEN BREAKS 100, GOLD FALLS BY $33
May 10, 2013
In yesterday’s mornings capsule, we told you about Weekly New Unemployment Claims coming in better than expectations. That single piece of data has turned out to be the trigger for yen breaking 100 for the first time in four years and gold falling by $33.
Bulls remain firmly in control of the stock market even though the market is very overbought.
Gold futures are at $1434, silver futures are at $23.35, and oil futures are $94.77.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1635, 1650, and 1675; support levels are 1607, 1600, and 1575.
DJIA futures are up 19 points.
CHINA PPI FALLS INTO DEFLATION TERRITORY, OMINOUS FOR GOLD AND SILVER
May 9, 2013
Our long time readers know that we focus on leading indicators. For inflation, we focus on Producer Price Index not on Consumer Price Index. The theory is that prices change at the producer level first.
Overnight the data from China shows that Producer Price Index for April fell 2.6% year on year. This is ominous news for gold and silver. However it is important to note that one piece of data does not make a trend.
In the U. S., the leading indicator with one of the highest weights in our models is Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims. Initial claims came at 323K vs. 336K consensus. This means the employment picture is getting better.
Bulls remain in control of the stock market even though the market is very overbought.
Gold futures are at $1463, silver futures are at $23.80, and oil futures are $96.00.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1635, 1650, and 1675; support levels are 1607, 1600, and 1575.
DJIA futures are down 4 points.
GOLD RISES ON CHINA TRADE DATA
May 8, 2013
Over night China reported strong trade data. Exports were up 14.7% in April year over year and imports rose 16.8%.
Commodities are rising on China data. Gold is especially strong, our algorithms have detected aggressive buying by the momo crowd.
It is important to repeat the caution we have indicated to our subscribers previously about China’s trade data. In our analysis this data is suspect.
Stocks remain under control of the bulls.
Gold futures are at $1466, silver futures are at $23.89, and oil futures are $95.83.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1625, 1635, and 1650; support levels are 1607, 1600, and 1575.
DJIA futures are down 11 points.
BIZARRE BEHAVIOR IN GOLD CONTINUES, GOLD FALLS ON SURGING IMPORTS FROM CHINA
May 7, 2013
Hong Kong released data that China bought 223,519 kilos of gold in March. For comparison, China bought 97,106 kilos in February.
Bizarre behavior in the gold market continues. Both gold and silver are falling on the news. Our algorithms are detecting mild selling by Smart Money at the highs but no buying by the momo crowd.
Since the momo crowd is still in control of gold and silver and based on their past pattern they would have been expected to buy aggressively, the behavior today warrants careful watching.
If it turns out that the momo crowd has such huge losses that they are running out of buying power on dips, it will provide a major trading opportunity on the down side. Having said that, it is important to note that gold is a complex market and changes in behavior for a single day only are not conclusive.
Bulls remain in control of the stock market.
Gold futures are at $1450, silver futures are at $23.45, and oil futures are $95.78.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1625, 1635, and 1650; support levels are 1607, 1600, and 1575.
DJIA futures are up 36 points.
MORE BAD DATA FROM CHINA, LONG-TERM NEGATIVE FOR GOLD
May 6, 2013
We care about economic data from China because China has been the growth engine of the world economy. Overnight there was more bad news from China. HSBC Service PMI fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March. Now this number is the lowest since August 2011.
The data may not have an immediate impact on gold and silver, but slowing growth in China is a long-term negative for gold and silver.
Markets in the United States and Europe are mostly quiet this morning.
Gold futures are at $1470, silver futures are at $23.95, and oil futures are $94.94.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1625, 1635, and 1650; support levels are 1600, 1575, and 1570.
DJIA futures are up 1 points.
