WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

June 27, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

REBALANCING, APPLE, MICROSOFT, AND KOREA SPOIL MICRON’S PARTY – MARKET CHARACTER MAY HAVE BEGUN TO CHANGE

Jun 26, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Market Character

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors are the leading sector, and semiconductor mania is largely instrumental in driving the stock market higher. SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite semiconductor ETF. For this reason, prudent investors should watch SOXL as a tell for the entire stock market.
The chart shows that semiconductors gap opened yesterday on blowout earnings from memory maker Micron (MU). Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for more.
The chart shows that semiconductors approached the low band of zone 1 (resistance).
The chart shows that in the early trade this morning, semiconductors have given up all of their Micron gains.
In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we wrote:

Apple (AAPL) is announcing significant price hikes due to higher memory prices. It will be interesting to see if consumers easily absorb the price increases or if it results in reduced demand.

Microsoft (MSFT) is also increasing prices on Xbox.
Both Apple and Microsoft are increasing prices due to higher memory prices. Micron’s gain is Apple’s and Microsoft’s pain.
The stock market started worrying about how many other companies are going to raise prices due to higher memory prices. This can lead to both demand destruction and higher inflation.
The stock market’s character may have begun to change. Prudent investors need to pay attention when the market character changes. However, note that the character change is nascent, and we will be watching to see if it progresses or fades.
- If Micron had reported the same earnings a month ago, MU stock would have gone much higher than it did yesterday, and SOXL would have likely decisively broken to a new high.
- If Apple and Microsoft had increased prices a month ago, this would have triggered buying on the narrative that higher prices means more revenue for Apple and Microsoft; the stock market would have been oblivious to the potential of demand destruction and inflation.
- Overnight, there was aggressive selling in South Korea again. In the overnight trading, selling in South Korea spilled into the U.S. and the selling in the U.S. is persisting this morning. A month ago, South Korea and Taiwan were following the U.S. market. Now, the U.S. market is following the South Korea and Taiwan markets.
The best way for prudent investors to deal with any market character change is to follow the Arora Protection Band. Again, you have been ahead of the curve as the protection band has lately been gradually increased ahead of the first signs of a market character change.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We have been sharing with you that more memory and semiconductor capacity is coming online. The stock market is oblivious at this time. There is speculation that SK Hynix (HXSCL) and Samsung (SSNLF) will announce hundreds of billions of dollars of investments next week. All of these new investments are going to increase supply.
There is speculation that OpenAI’s IPO may be delayed. This is a double edged sword. On one hand, a delay will reduce the supply of new stock that is coming to the stock market. On the other hand, a delay may dampen sentiment.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We have been sharing with you in advance that quarter end rebalancing may entail over $100B of equity selling. This selling is beginning to impact the stock market.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
Looking ahead, the stock market may get a boost when the month turns as blind money will pour into the stock market on July 1 and July 2. Blind money is the money that has drunk the Koolaid that they are not capable of learning about the stock market and must send their money to Wall Street every month without any analysis. The seasonality around the July 4 holiday is also positive.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7386 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are down 90 points.

Gold futures are at $4059, silver futures are at $58.22, and oil futures are at $69.55.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

AI OPTIMISM REIGNITES ON MICRON EARNINGS BUT MORE MEMORY SUPPLY AHEAD, PCE SHOWS STICKY INFLATION

Jun 25, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

More Memory Supply

Please click here for a chart of Micron stock (MU).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point. Prudent investors need to keep an eye on MU stock because lately MU stock has been leading the semiconductor mania.
The chart shows MU stock has moved up into zone 1 (resistance) after reporting earnings.
If MU breaks above zone 1 shown on the chart, $1500 is the next magnet. The momo crowd is shooting for $2000. Members of The Arora Report are long MU from an average of $21.77. MU is trading at $1233.78 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 5567%.
Micron earnings were a blowout, exceeding the whisper numbers. Whisper numbers had moved up going into earnings.
Micron earnings are reigniting AI optimism. This morning, there is aggressive buying in the AI trade. The bullishness is spilling into the rest of the stock market.
The most important point from Micron’s earnings is that Micron has struck 16 long term deals to lock in pricing and volume. If Micron and its competitors are able to accelerate this trend, it will be a structural shift. This structural shift will smooth out historic boom bust cycles in memory. The result may be a higher PE for Micron.
Markets always have crosscurrents. In the middle of the good news of a structural shift in the memory business and uber bullishness this morning, prudent investors need to remember that in The Arora Report analysis more memory supply is coming online. Micron itself had a capex of $7.1B in Q3. Micron plans a capex of $10B in Q4 and $27B in FY27. A vast majority of this capex is going to increase supply.
So far, the momo crowd is oblivious to the potential increase in memory supply.
Apple (AAPL) is announcing significant price hikes due to higher memory prices. It will be interesting to see if consumers easily absorb the price increases or if it results in reduced demand.
Also on the positive side, Qualcomm (QCOM) raised its FY29 non-handset revenue projection to $40B. This is a big jump. Historically, many have considered Qualcomm as a handset technology and chip provider. QCOM is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from an average of $47.13. QCOM is trading at $216.38 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 359%.
In a major development for the semiconductor industry, International Business Machines (IBM) is unveiling the world’s first sub-1nm chip technology using transistor architecture at 0.7nm. When commercialized this will be a major leap in semiconductor manufacturing. As a reference, compared to IBM’s 2nm node chips, the new technology provides up to 70% better energy efficiency and 50% more performance.
PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Inflation came inline. Here are the details:
- Headline PCE came at 0.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- Core PCE came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending. The data shows the consumer is strong as they borrow more and deplete their savings. Here are the details:
- Personal spending came at 0.7% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Personal income came at 0.7% vs. 0.3% consensus.
GDP data is strong. Here are the details:
- Q1 GDP third estimate came at 2.1% vs. 1.6% consensus.
- Q1 GDP Deflator third estimate came at 3.6% vs. 3.5% consensus.
Durable goods data is mixed. Here are the details:
- Durable Goods Orders came at -4.5% vs. -3.2% consensus.
- Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation came at 1.3% vs. 0.5% consensus.
Initial jobless claims came at 215K vs. 225K consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, the foregoing data shows the economy is resilient with sticky underlying inflation. Retreating oil prices will help. If the future data comes similar to the foregoing, in spite of President Trump’s wishes for lower interest rates, the Fed may have no choice but to raise interest rates. Prudent investors should note the stock market is not prepared for potential higher interest rates.
Consider getting ahead of the curve and remember that in spite of this morning’s uber bullishness, quarter end rebalancing is ahead. As we have previously shared with you, in The Arora Report analysis, over $100B worth of equities will be sold in quarter end rebalancing.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7485 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are up 134 points.

Gold futures are at $4018, silver futures are at $57.74, and oil futures are at $69.38.

PAY ATTENTION: SK HYNIX U.S. LISTING IS BAD NEWS FOR MICRON, REACTION TO MICRON EARNINGS TO TEST AI TRADE

Jun 24, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Trade Test Ahead

Please click here for a chart of Micron stock (MU).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.
Prudent investors need to keep an eye on MU stock because lately MU stock has been leading the semiconductor mania.
The chart shows MU stock reached zone 1 (resistance) on Monday.
The chart shows a big drop in MU stock yesterday in sympathy with a 10% down day in South Korea. Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.
The chart shows that in spite of the big drop yesterday, MU stock remained above trendline 2.
Micron will report earnings after the close today. It is not earnings but the reaction to earnings that will matter. In five of the last six quarters, the immediate reaction to Micron earnings was the stock fell. The reason was that going into earnings the momo crowd aggressively bought MU stock and whisper numbers rose but Micron’s actual earnings were below whisper numbers.
As the chart shows, this time the momo crowd has also been aggressively buying MU stock ahead of earnings, but the stock price was disrupted by a down move in the South Korean stock market. Earnings is a risk event, both to the upside and downside. For this reason, smart money usually does not buy before earnings because smart money cares about both rewards and risks. On the other hand, the momo crowd buys ahead of earnings because their strategy is hopium and the momo crowd does not care about the risk.
In The Arora Report analysis, the reaction to Micron earnings will test the entire AI trade and, in turn, the entire stock market.
The momo crowd is oblivious, but prudent investors should pay attention to another development that will impact MU stock. SK Hynix (HXSCL) is planning to raise $29B from U.S. investors by listing its shares in the U.S. The SK Hynix plan could be bad news for Micron for two reasons:
- SK Hynix will have an extra $29B to increase memory manufacturing capacity. As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We have been sharing with you that more memory capacity is coming online. The momo crowd is oblivious. As more memory capacity comes on the line, it will reduce memory shortages. In theory, memory prices should drop.
- SK Hynix ADR will give U.S. investors a second memory stock to buy in addition to MU stock. Some institutions may sell MU stock to buy HXSCL stock. The negative impact of this development will be cushioned because the momo crowd has been aggressively buying ETF DRAM. DRAM holds MU, HXSCL, and Samsung (SSNFL).
There are important developments in oil and gold. Please see the appropriate sections below.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is indeterminable due to noise in the data. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

As of this writing, gold has fallen below the psychologically important support of $4000. Note that the very popular Arora Report rating on gold has been negative for the short term. Long time members of The Arora Report are long gold from an average of $1103 and partial profits were taken as high as $5511. For those who are interested in next level information on gold, there are several podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 0.765M barrels vs. a previous draw of 8.33M barrels.

Brent oil has broken below the psychologically important level of $75 for the first time since oil’s rise due to the Iran war. There are three reasons:

Many investors are not paying attention to the fact that China is not buying oil as it used to. China is using oil from storage. Right now, the biggest determinant of the price of oil is not Iran or the U.S., but China. In The Arora Report analysis, there are significant geopolitical implications of China attempting to wrest control of oil prices from the U.S. in an attempt to assert global leadership and hurt the U.S. dollar.
Significant tanker traffic has passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump’s statements

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7451 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000: support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are down 36 points.

Gold futures are at $4020, silver futures are at $58.87, and oil futures are at $71.14.

SEMI MANIA GETS A REALITY CHECK FROM SOUTH KOREA, PRUDENT INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO SHIFT IN AI TOKENS

Jun 23, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Korea Drops 10%

Please click here for a chart of South Korea ETF (EWY).

Note the following:

As we have previously shared, prudent investors pay attention to stocks in South Korea because South Korea is like a canary in the coal mine for the AI trade and the semiconductor mania. The reason is that two of the three biggest memory manufacturers, SK Hynix (HXSCL) and Samsung (SSNLF), are South Korea based. The third is Micron (MU). Micron is U.S. based. An easy way to watch the South Korean market is to watch ETF EWY.
The chart shows South Korea ETF EWY crossed slightly above the low band zone 1 (resistance) the day before yesterday, hitting an all time high.
Those who trade only based on traditional technical analysis deemed it to be a breakout and aggressively bought Korean stocks.
The chart shows last night EWY fell about 10%. Now, it is clear that the breakout was false. This illustrates why prudent investors should not use traditional technical analysis alone. Moreover, traditional technical analysis no longer works as well as it used to. Please click here to see the reason. The Arora Report proprietary system synergistically combines the best elements of technical analysis, including new proprietary indicators that work, macro analysis, fundamental analysis, and quantitative analysis.
The chart shows zone 2 (support). Prudent investors should carefully watch what happens to EWY relative to zone 1 and zone 2, especially after Micron earnings. Micron will report earnings tomorrow after the close. Members of The Arora Report are long MU from an average of $21.77. MU stock closed yesterday at $1211.38, representing a gain of 5464%.
The chart shows the Arora buy signal for EWY. South Korea ETF (EWY) is long from an average of $48.60 from the April 9, 2025 signal. EWY is in ZYX Emerging. Even after the drop this morning shown on the chart, members of The Arora Report still have a gain of 301%.
The proximate cause of the sell off in South Korean stocks was an unconfirmed local report that SK Hynix is shifting DRAM capacity from high bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data centers in favor of general purpose DRAM. If the report is correct, why would SK Hynix make such a move? In The Arora Report analysis, HBM has significantly higher profit margins. The only reason to make the reported move would be if the demand for HBM is slowing.
In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should take the report from Korea with a grain of salt. The Arora Report analysis has been that the demand for AI semiconductors is going to continue throughout 2026 and will slow in 2027 to 2028. Prudent investors need to keep in mind that markets look ahead 6 – 18 months.
The drop in South Korean stocks is causing a selloff in semiconductor stocks in the U.S. in the early trade. The momo crowd’s favorite ETF DRAM that represents semiconductor memory is down 12.6%, and the momo crowd’s favorite leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL is down 19.7% as of this writing in the premarket.
We have been sharing with you that the risks of a pullback in the stock market are rising. The key question for prudent investors is how to participate in the upside from three manias and simultaneously protect their portfolios. The answer is dynamic hedging. In practice, dynamic hedging can become complex. Fortunately, there is an easy, actionable way to implement dynamic hedging using the Arora Protection Band. As a reference point, the Arora Protection Band was raised on June 17.
In addition to paying attention to semiconductors, prudent investors should get ahead of the curve and pay attention to quarter end rebalancing. In The Arora Report analysis, institutions will likely be selling over $100B in equities and shifting the money to bonds.
The premise behind the ZYX Change Method is that investors may generate more alpha by identifying significant changes early. Prudent investors should pay attention to a new change that is just beginning to happen. Until now, the guiding principle in large corporations was token max as they wanted to maximize the use of AI. Now, the trend is shifting to token min. The reason is the rising costs of tokens.
Prudent inventors should also pay attention to another change along with the shift from token max to token min. The models from Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Anthropic, and OpenAI are very expensive. Corporations are beginning to look at cheaper open source models for some tasks. Further, prudent investors should note there is a flood of cheaper open source models coming from China. In The Arora Report’s preliminary analysis, for certain tasks the cost of using the top U.S. models is eight times the cost of cheap Chinese models.
On the positive side, the Trump administration is looking at providing low cost loans for nuclear power and also setting up a new initiative to promote quantum computing. On the negative side, SpaceX (SPCX) stock saw aggressive selling yesterday on concerns about valuation and the hype was overdone. Another reason that is adding to the SPCX selloff is SoftBank (SFTBY) CEO Masayoshi Son coming out negative on space data centers. Space data centers are one of the reasons investors got excited about SPCX.
Adding to the persistent tech layoffs is the news that Oracle (ORCL) is laying off 21,000 workers.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Prudent investors pay attention to Japan because of the carry trade. In the carry trade, investors have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in Japan to invest in the U.S., lately in the AI trade.

The Japanese yen moved up from the lows after Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama and Treasury Secretary Bessent had a phone call.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA),Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** in stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7430 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are down 233 points.

Gold futures are at $4127, silver futures are at $61.85, and oil futures are at $73.65.

SEMICONDUCTOR MANIA REACHES A CRITICAL POINT, WARSH HAWKISHNESS ADDS TO RISK OF CORRECTION

Jun 22, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Critical Point in Semi Mania

Please click here for a chart of leverage semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors are the leading sector, and semiconductor mania is largely instrumental in driving the stock market higher. SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite semiconductor ETF. For this reason, prudent investors should watch SOXL as a tell for the entire stock market.
The chart shows that in the early trade this morning, SOXL has reached the upper band of zone 1 (resistance). This is a critical point for the following reasons:
- Stops of short sellers are just above this point. If the stops are taken out, it can drive SOXL higher.
- If SOXL moves higher, those trading exclusively on traditional technical analysis will call it a breakout and aggressively buy.
- If SOXL goes above the psychological level of $300, the momo crowd’s already aggressive buying may become super aggressive.
Last night, stock futures opened lower on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and blaming Israel for ceasefire violations in Lebanon. President Trump responded by threatening to bomb Iran.
In overnight trading, semiconductors were seeing aggressive selling when the news came from Pakistan that substantial progress was made in talks in Switzerland. On this news, stock futures immediately turned up and oil fell. Simultaneously , very aggressive buying came in semiconductors in overnight trading. As the morning has progressed, buying in semiconductors has become more aggressive as of this writing. In overnight trading, SOXL traded as low as $260.73 and is trading at $299.13 as of this writing in the premarket – this illustrates the wide range.
We have previously written that the momo crowd buys semiconductors when there is bad news related to Iran on the narrative that semiconductors have nothing to do with Iran and oil. The momo crowd also buys semiconductors aggressively when there is good news from Iran. This is how manias work.
Micron (MU) will report earnings Wednesday after the close. Micron is the sole U.S. based, major memory manufacturer. Prudent investors should carefully watch how the stock market reacts to Micron earnings.
There is a fair probability that a breakout in semiconductors here may turn out to be a false breakout.
Three manias continue to drive the stock market: semi mania, space mania, and options mania. In the early trade, SpaceX (SPCX) stock is seeing selling.
Fed Chair Warsh’s unexpected hawkishness has increased the risk of a correction. When President Trump hand picked Warsh as Fed Chair, the expectation was that Warsh would be dovish. In his press conference after the FOMC meeting, Warsh was unexpectedly hawkish. Here are the key points:
- The Fed has a dual mandate: full employment and price stability. Warsh focused on price stability and did not mention full employment.
- Warsh took head on the fact that the Fed has been giving lip service to greater than 2% inflation but has not taken the hard steps necessary to achieve its objective.
- In The Arora Report analysis, one of the three reasons for the stock market rise since the 2022 low has been monetary policy. The other two reasons have been AI and fiscal policy.
- If monetary policy tightens, it is a risk for the stock market but a positive for bonds.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Nikkei in Japan hit 72,000. Japan ETF EWJ is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. The stock market in Japan is going higher on reported plans in Japan to invest 10.5T yen in AI projects by 2040. At the same time, expectations for another rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are rising.

U.K.

Prime Minister Starmer has resigned after a party rebellion. Andy Burnham is likely to become the U.K.’s sixth prime minister in seven years. In The Arora Report analysis, unless bonds in the U.K. react badly, this event does not have negative implications for non-U.K. based investors.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7574 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are up 70 points.

Gold futures are at $4212, silver futures are at $66.63, and oil futures are at $74.69.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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