WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WILL EXCITEMENT IN THE STOCK MARKET THAT DROVE S&P 500 TO ALL TIME HIGHS CONTINUE?

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

REVISED CPI DATA BRINGS BUYERS INTO STOCK MARKET, HOPES OF WHALES DRIVING BITCOIN TO $50K OVER THE WEEKEND

February 9, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Revised CPI

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the revised CPI data brought in buyers to the stock market.
  • The chart shows that volume continues to be low.  This indicates that so far there is lack of conviction in the move. However, this can change very quickly.
  • The stock market has been eagerly waiting for CPI revisions as there have been times in the past when such revisions caused major moves in the stock market.
  • A year ago, when inflation appeared to be coming down, revisions completely changed the picture.
  • As of this writing, the complete data is not yet available.  Here are the details known so far:
    • Q4 Core CPI is unchanged at 3.3% annualized.
    • December CPI revised to 0.2% from 0.3%.
    • December Core CPI is unchanged at 0.3%.
  • Bond yields are slightly lower after the CPI revisions.
  • The sum total of the revision data so far is positive for the stock market.
  • As more data becomes available, it may move the stock market.  CPI for January will be released next Tuesday at 8:30am ET.
  • Adding to the AI frenzy is the news that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wants to raise $5T – $7T for manufacturing AI chips.  He appears to be trying to raise the money from oil rich nations.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

OPEC+ oil production declined by 340,000 barrels per day according to a survey.  This caused a big move.  Also, hopes of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel have diminished.

Yesterday saw a big move up in oil.  Today, there is a slight pullback.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

There are hopes that bitcoin whales will take advantage of the low liquidity over the weekend to drive bitcoin to $50,000.  As a result, bitcoin is seeing aggressive buying.

Sentiment in bitcoin is very positive.

Bitcoin miners are being aggressively bought.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  Also remember, today is Friday.  Short squeezes tend to take place on Fridays.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2044, silver futures are at $22.66, and oil futures are at $76.14.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5034  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 27 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

HERE IS WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN AFTER S&P 500 CROSSES 5000, PRICES DROP AT FASTEST RATE SINCE 2009 IN CHINA

February 8, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

S&P 500 At 5000

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that S&P 500 is comfortably above the top band of the support zone.
  • The chart shows that the move up is on lower volume.  This is a negative.
  • Historically, when S&P 500 hits the next 1000 benchmark, the median return is as follows:
    • 0.57% after one week
    • 2.00% after one month
    • 3.5% after three months
    • 7.73% after six months
  • The above data is only history, and no one should depend on it.  It is more important to understand how various groups behave.
    • Sentiment moves higher in the extreme zone.
    • Momo crowd buying becomes even more aggressive.
    • Mom and pop who are normally not active in the stock market jump in.
    • Bears throw in the towel and jump in.
    • Underperforming money managers become aggressive buyers.
    • Smart money takes advantage of the strength and trims positions. 
  • “Buy low and sell high” is a simple concept in theory.  This is exactly what you need to do to consistently beat the stock market.  However, in practice it is not as easy as it sounds for the following reasons:
    • Human emotions of fear and greed.
    • Market mechanics
    • Market controlled by momo crowd
    • Momo gurus
    • Short squeezes
    • Thousands of constantly changing variables from across the globe
  • The key is to look at returns, not only in terms of absolute returns, but in terms of risk adjusted returns. Arora’s 30 Laws of Investing and Trading have been designed to help you achieve high risk adjusted returns and overcome the emotions of fear and greed.  Due to their very high value, these laws are closely guarded in how they function synergistically.  Arora’s 30 Laws are only available in the “Higher Returns With Bulletproof Techniques” seminar.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  REVISED CPI DATA BRINGS BUYERS INTO STOCK MARKET, HOPES OF WHALES DRIVING BITCOIN TO $50K OVER THE WEEKEND

Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims came at 218K vs. 218K consensus.  This indicates that the jobs picture is staying strong.  Initial Jobless Claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.

Treasury Auction

Yesterday, we shared with you that the largest ever 10-year Treasury auction was still.  Please read the Afternoon Capsule for details.

Today, there is a $25B 30-year auction.  This is not the largest auction.  The largest auction was $27B.

Investors are expected to trip over themselves to eagerly lend money to the U.S. government for 30 years at about 4%.  This simple fact should be thought provoking among prudent investors about the current state of investor thinking. Would you lend to the U.S. government for 30 years at 4%?  

Bard Becomes Gemini

Google (GOOG, GOOGL) has changed the name of its large language model to Gemini from Bard.  Google is also offering a paid version of Gemini.  Google is trying to catch up with ChatGPT from Microsoft (MSFT) and OpenAI.

For investors wanting to make a fortune in AI, it is important to build a strong background.  For example, it is important to understand the challenges facing Google that have become opportunities for Microsoft.  The easiest way to get reliable information on what is important is to listen to podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.

China

Prices dropped at the fastest rate in China since 2009.  Here are the details:

  • CPI came at -0.8% year-over-year vs. -0.5% consensus.
  • CPI came at 0.3% month-over-month vs. 0.4% consensus.
  • PPI came at -2.5% year-over-year vs. -2.6% consensus.

In The Arora Report analysis, paradoxically these bad numbers are likely to instill urgency in President Xi to take measures to run up the stock market.  We shared with you yesterday that China has a new regulator for securities.

In a surprise move, China has replaced its top stock market regulator.  The new regulator is Wu Qing, a respected banker.  In The Arora Report analysis, this surprise move is an attempt by President Xi to move the Chinese stock market higher.

Here was what happened the last two times a new regulator was appointed:

  • The Chinese stock market went up 80% in two years, starting in 2019.
  • The Chinese stock market went up 40% in two years after 2016.  

Japan

Nikkei 225 in Japan went up 2.1% on talk of the Bank of Japan exiting the negative rate policy.  Nikkei 225 closed at 36,863.  It has taken over 34 years for Nikkei 225 to come close to its prior high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989.  In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should look at the 34 year period before assuming bear markets do not last very long.  

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in GOOG, Apple (AAPL), and MSFT.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

Money is flowing out of the safety of gold and into bitcoin and stocks.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying by whale memes in anticipation of bitcoin whales potentially running bitcoin higher over the week, taking advantage of the low liquidity.  Sentiment in bitcoin is very positive.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2036, silver futures are at $22.24, and oil futures are at $74.85.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5008 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5020, 5210, and 5400: support levels are 4918, 4852, and 4826.

DJIA futures are up 27 points.

 

FOLDING APPLE IPHONE, SELLERS FINALLY COME IN AI KING NVIDIA AS SENTIMENT STAYS AT EXTREME

February 7, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Folding Apple iPhone

Apple (AAPL) is apparently working on two folding iPhones.  Samsung (SSNLF) folding smartphones have been very popular.  AAPL stock carries a very heavy weight in indexes.  In the early trade, there is significant buying in AAPL stock.  The speculation of folding phones from Apple is adding to the already extreme positive sentiment in the stock market.

Extreme Sentiment

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • Nvidia is the king of artificial intelligence and one of the top performing stocks.  For this reason, it is important to pay attention to Nvidia.
  • The chart shows when the AI buying frenzy in NVDA stock reached a peak three days ago.
  • Three days ago, after hours NVDA stock went above the psychologically important level of $700 and went higher the next day in the premarket.
  • The red candle shown on the chart the next day shows heavy selling.  This indicates that many market participants believe that the stock market top is not too far off.
  • The chart shows that the move up was on high volume.  A move up on high volume indicates bulls’ conviction.
  • The chart shows that on the day of the red candle, the volume was again very high.  This indicates high conviction on the part of those who think the top is near.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, based on analysis of money flows, as of this writing in the premarket bulls and bears in NVDA stock are in balance.  This is the first time they have been in balance since the start of the AI frenzy. 
  • The chart shows RSI divergence.  This means NVDA stock is losing internal momentum in the very short term.
  • The sum total of the foregoing is an early caution signal.
  • The sentiment in the stock market remains at extreme positive.  For interpretation, see prior Morning Capsules.
  • The Fed speak yesterday pushed back against market expectations of six rate cuts this year.  The following quote from Fed President Mester is instructive for investors, “If the economy evolves as expected, I think we will gain that confidence later this year, and then we can begin moving rates down. My base case is that we will do so at a gradual pace so that we can continue to manage the risks to both sides of our mandate.”
  • There is more Fed speak today from the Fed’s Patrick Harker, Adriana Kugler, Susan Collins, Tom Barkin, and Michelle Bowman.  The Fed speak may be market moving.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  AI HYPE MEETING REALITY, FED UNDER POLITICAL PRESSURE TO CUT RATES QUICKLY

Commercial Real Estate Problems

You may remember the banking crisis when Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, and Signature Bank went bankrupt in March 2023.  Since then, there has been a massive rally in the stocks of regional banks on hopium.  Serious commercial real estate loan problems remain.  In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors need to be alert to real estate loan problems.  

Moody’s has just cut New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) to junk status.  Only six days ago, NYCB was considered a solid, well-managed bank.  The bank was so respected that last year FDCI chose NYCB to buy the assets of Signature Bank. In the last six days, NYCB stock has fallen from above $10 to the $4 range.

China

In a surprise move, China has replaced its top stock market regulator.  The new regulator is Wu Qing, a respected banker.  In The Arora Report analysis, this surprise move is an attempt by President Xi to move the Chinese stock market higher.  

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in AAPL, Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 0.674M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.133M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.  Sentiment in bitcoin continues to be bullish as the belief is steadfast that it is only a matter of time before bitcoin whales run up bitcoin above $50,000.  Bitcoin bulls are hoping that bitcoin whales will take advantage of the low liquidity over the coming weekend to run up bitcoin.

For those seriously interested in making money in bitcoin, listen to the three-part podcast series titled “Whales’ Secrets You Need To Know: Capturing Bitcoin Profits.”  The podcast series is available in Arora Ambassador Club.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2051, silver futures are at $22.37, and oil futures are at $73.73.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4989  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5020, 5210, and 5400: support levels are 4918, 4852, and 4826.

DJIA futures are up 72 points.

 

STOCKS IN CHINA FLYING, LIFTING SENTIMENT IN STOCK MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE, AI AND WEIGHT LOSS DRUGS GET HOTTER

February 6, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Sentiment Lifting

Please click here for a chart of Hong Kong ETF (FXI).

Note the following:

  • Sentiment is lifting in stock markets all across the globe as Chinese stocks fly.
  • The chart shows that Hong Kong stocks have broken above the trendline.  This is technically a positive.
  • The chart shows that Hong Kong stocks appear to be making a higher low.  This is technically a positive.
  • Stocks in Hong Kong closed up 4% and up 3.2% in Mainland China.  Small caps are leading in a sign of optimism.
  • The news making Chinese stocks fly is that Chinese President Xi is to discuss stocks with regulators.  Also, an arm of the Chinese government is going to buy more ETFs.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the probability is high that the Chinese government is about to start a forceful campaign to lift stocks.  However, with the Chinese Communist Party  there is always a risk that they may say one thing and do another.
  • ZYX Emerging has continuously covered China for 17 years.  Please see ZYX Emerging for short term, medium term, and long term ratings as well as buy zones.
  • Both weight loss drugs and AI stocks are getting hotter.
    • Earlier today, Nvidia (NVDA) crossed $700.  NVDA is in The Arora Report ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  There are very large unrealized profits.
    • Weight loss drug company Eli Lilly (LLY) reported earnings better than the consensus.  Even after a massive run, the stock is up another 5.49% as of this writing in the premarket.  LLY is in The Arora Report ZYX Buy Model Portfolio and also has large unrealized profits.
  • China, AI, and weight loss drugs are adding to the already extreme positive sentiment in the stock market.  As we have written before, the following points are important.
    • At extremes, sentiment is a contrary indicator.  In plain English this means that extreme positive sentiment is a sell signal.
    • Sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.
    • As important as sentiment is, no one should act only on sentiment.  Investors should do a 360 degree analysis, such as the one provided by the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.
  • ISM Services PMI came at 53.4% vs. 52% consensus.  Here are the key points:
    • This is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in The Arora Report models.
    • A number above 50% indicates expansion.
    • In The Arora Report analysis, digging below the surface, this data indicates the service economy is becoming stronger.  
    • The price index rose to 64.0% from 56.7%.  In The Arora Report analysis, this is of concern as this indicates purchasing managers are expecting a significant rise in prices for services.  This runs counter to the narrative that inflation is coming down.  Inflation is coming down in goods and housing but continues to be stubborn in services.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, even though indexes are marching higher, there is significant weakness under the surface in a vast majority of the stocks.  
  • There is significant Fed speak ahead.  Loretta Mester, Neel Kashkari and Susan Collins will be speaking today.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOG), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and positive in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying on positive sentiment emanating from tech stocks.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

See also  GREAT AI INFERENCE SURPRISE, NVIDIA DECLARES AI TIPPING POINT, JAPAN’S NIKKEI CROSSES 34 YEAR HIGH

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2043, silver futures are at $22.39, and oil futures are at $73.19.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4970 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5020, 5210, and 5400: support levels are 4918, 4852, and 4826.

DJIA futures are up 11 points.

 

POWELL REACTS TO POLITICAL PRESSURE ON INTEREST RATES – MOMO GURUS WRONG AGAIN

February 5, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Powell Pushes Back

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows long term Treasuries pulled back on Friday on the strong jobs report.  For details of the jobs report, please see Friday’s Morning Capsule.
  • The chart shows Treasuries pulled back further on Powell’s interview on 60 Minutes.
  • The chart shows that the sell off in the early morning on Powell’s interview is being bought as of this writing.
  • The chart shows that during this swing, Treasuries approached the low band of the upper resistance zone but did not penetrate the upper resistance zone before a pullback.  From a technical analysis perspective, this is a short term negative.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the overbought condition has been relieved.  Now, RSI shows that Treasuries can go either way.
  • The chart shows high volume on Thursday just before the jobs report, indicating high conviction among market participants that the jobs report would be weak.
  • The chart shows that when the jobs report came significantly stronger than expected and the consensus among market participants was proven wrong, the volume was lower.  This indicates a combination of the following two:
    • Some market participants are like deer in the headlights.  They were wrong, and now they are frozen, unable to figure out what to do.
    • Many market participants simply are not paying attention to the data.
  • Powell gave an interview on 60 Minutes and further pushed back on the notion of rate cuts in March.  Powell said that inflation was coming down but the Fed needed more confidence.
  • Prudent investors need to ask a very simple question, “Why did Powell feel the need to go on 60 Minutes and speak directly to the American public?”  In The Arora Report analysis, Powell is feeling political pressure from both Republicans and Democrats to cut rates.  Of course, there is also pressure from stock and bond market participants to cut rates.  The only effective way for Powell to push back is to speak directly to the American public.  Powell clearly understands that the American public wants what is best for America.  This is in contrast to politicians who want to get reelected and Wall Street, where making money often comes first.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, Powell does not want to repeat Burns’ blunder. We have been sharing with you for a while that the memory of Burns’ blunder is going to stop Powell from prematurely cutting interest rates.  Long time members of The Arora Report know that this Arora Report call, like every other major Arora Report call on the Fed over the last 16 years, has now proven spot on.  Of special interest to newer members should be that a vast majority of these spot on Arora calls, when originally made, were against the consensus, but have subsequently been proven correct.  
  • The key question for investors is now that momo gurus have been proven wrong again about six interest rate cuts with the first one starting in March, what are momo gurus going to do?  It is important for investors to pay attention to momo gurus, even though momo gurus are almost always wrong, because they have a large following and their followers tend to act without analysis.
  • ISM Services PMI will be released at 10am ET.  This is likely to be market moving data.
  • Among important earnings, Caterpillar (CAT) earnings were better than the whisper numbers and consensus.  McDonalds (MCD) earnings were slightly worse than the whisper numbers.  CAT and MCD earnings are important because they are part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Nvidia (NVDA),

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is ***in the early trade.

Gold

In The Arora Report analysis, Powell’s interview shows that the Fed is being responsible in not caving to pressure from politicians and Wall Street.  This is negative for gold in the short term.  

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil had fallen last week on rumors that a cease fire deal had been reached in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel. Those reports have proven to be inaccurate.  As a result, oil is seeing smart money *** and momo crowd *** in the early trade.  

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being bought on positive sentiment emanating from last week’s blowout earnings from META and AMZN.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2053, silver futures are at $22.76, and oil futures are at $72.65.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4966 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5020, 5210, and 5400: support levels are 4918, 4852, and 4826.

DJIA futures are down 115 points.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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