WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

November 7, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

75% OF SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITULATION CRITERIA MET BUT COMPLACENCY IN REST OF THE MARKET, JOBS REPORT SHOCKER

Nov 6, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Capitulation Criteria

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
The chart shows SOXL fell 38.7% yesterday. In The Arora Report analysis, over 50% of the drop in SOXL was due to forced selling in momo crowd accounts prompted by margin calls.
The chart shows SOXL has fallen 86.5% since its high in June. Imagine those who listened to momo gurus in the media calling for their followers to go all in on SOXL. There is anecdotal evidence of many in the momo crowd selling other stocks to go all in in SOXL. An investor buying $1M of SOXL at the top would now have $135K left.
The Arora Report call has been for a 30% – 50% drawdown in aggressive AI stocks. That call was made when there was uber bullishness in AI stocks and nobody else was talking about such a big draw down. That Arora call has now proven spot on.
Yesterday started many bullish gurus throwing in the towel on semiconductors and issuing sell signals on semiconductors, while giving buy signals on the rest of the market. It is kind of like closing the barn door after the horses have bolted.
The foregoing illustrates the importance of getting ahead of the curve for prudent investors.
The chart shows SOXL touched the top band of zone 4 (support).
The chart shows a new divergence is developing in RSI. In plain English, this means the SOXL price is now much lower compared to when RSI shown on the chart hit its low, but RSI is now much higher.
A series of two RSI divergences shown on the chart is an indication that supports capitulation.
The chart shows the volume yesterday was very heavy. Very heavy volume is an indication of capitulation.
Now, 75% of the criteria for capitulation in semiconductors is met. Here are the important points:
- The 75% applies ONLY to semiconductors. It does not apply to the rest of the market.
- Investors in the rest of the market are showing great complacency. Great complacency means there is significant room to the downside.
- If the rest of the market craters, it can pull down semiconductors.
Understanding the secrets of capitulation can give investors a huge edge. Those who want to gain the edge should consider listening to the podcast titled, “THE TEN SECRETS OF EPIC CAPITULATION RICHES” in Arora Ambassador Club.
This is very different from March 9, 2009 when The Arora Report issued the now famous back up the truck and buy stocks signal. Hindsight shows that the long bull market started on March 9, 2009 after the Great Financial Crash.
- When the Arora back up the truck and buy signal was given, it was for the entire market.
- The March 9, 2009 signal was given when Wall Street was almost universally bearish and giving sell signals. Momo gurus had gone into hiding. The momo crowd had lost 80% – 90% of their portfolios.
- In contrast to March 9, 2009, Wall Street is now almost universally bullish and giving buy signals. In spite of often being wrong, momo gurus are the stars of the media.
Prudent investors should note that momo gurus do not use stops and do not give position sizes. As SOXL fell, momo gurus continued to urge their followers to buy SOXL. Finally, yesterday momo gurus were sheepish and threw in the towel calling for their followers to sell SOXL. This is one of the indications of capitulation.
Of note is The Arora Report has given buy signals to start trade around positions on semiconductors taking advantage of the big drop. A trade around position is a technique used by billionaires and hedge funds that can dramatically increase profits and reduce risk. From the Trade Management Guidelines, the first line of defense is the position size. All Arora signals include position size.
Smart money often does the opposite of momo gurus at inflection points.
Prudent investors should note that the jobs report just released is a shocker. The jobs report had the potential to negate the developing capitulation in semiconductors. The wisdom on Wall Street yesterday in the face of semiconductor rout was that a rate hike in December was off the table. In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report puts a rate hike back on the table. Here are the details of the jobs report:
- Headlines nonfarm payrolls came at 165K vs 65K consensus.
- Private nonfarm payrolls came at 159K vs 50K consensus.
- Average hourly came at 0.4% vs 0.3% consensus.
- Unemployment came at 4.1% vs 4.2% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.4 vs. 34.4 consensus.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
Markets always have crosscurrents. After the rout in semiconductors and the jobs report shocker combined with positive seasonality, the crosscurrents are now significantly more severe than normal. At this time, it is important to not get carried away by permabears or permabulls who dominate the media. Consider making decisions driven by hard data using a proven adaptive framework such as the ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.
The easiest, practical way to handle these severe crosscurrents is to follow the Arora Protection Band.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7399 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7541, 7626, and 7733 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are down 485 points.

Gold futures are at $4058, silver futures are at $51.84, and oil futures are at $91.03.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

FIVE DAY TECH STOCK LOSING STREAK – SIXTH DAY WILL BE TROUBLESOME BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON POWELL, INSULT HURTS NVIDIA

Nov 5, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Unrealistic Expectations

Please click here for a chart of healthcare ETF (XLV).

Note the following:

As a reminder, The Arora Report is politically agnostic. Our sole job is to help investors generate high risk adjusted returns.
The momo crowd is now betting Democrats have magical powers to fix healthcare, housing, and everyday living expenses. Here are the realities investors should not overlook:
- Unlike periods when one party controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress, this time Democrats do not have a free run. President Trump is still the president, and the Constitution gives him veto power.
- Neither party has a magic wand to make massive federal deficits and the national debt disappear.
- The momo crowd may soon discover that political promises are much easier to make than to deliver.
At this time, it is especially important for prudent investors to separate their politics from their investing.
The chart shows the move up in healthcare ETF XLV on the midterm election results.
RSI on the chart shows XLV is overbought. Overbought ETFs are susceptible to a pullback.
XLV is up 22.5% year-to-date. In contrast, AI king Nvidia (NVDA) is up only 7.3% year-to-date. This simple observation illustrates the power of diversification and properly structuring a portfolio. As a full disclosure, XLV is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio and NVDA is in ZYX Buy in the Core Model Portfolio.
The stock market’s new narrative is an apparent belief that Democrats have a magic cure for consumers struggling with healthcare, housing, and everyday living expenses. The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks that stand to benefit assuming Democrats will be able to deliver on their campaign promises.
- Insurance stocks are rallying on hopes that Democrats will protect Medicaid, restore healthcare subsidies, and expand insurance coverage. Examples of stocks being bought are Centene (CNC), Molina Healthcare (MOH), and Oscar Health (OSCR).
- Hospital stocks are rallying on the assumption of more insured patients and fewer unpaid bills. Examples of stocks being bought are Tenet Healthcare (THC) and HCA Healthcare (HCA).
- Homebuilders are rising on hopes that Democrats will make housing more affordable, bringing buyers back into the market. Examples of stocks being bought are D.R. Horton (DHI) and KB Home (KBH).
- Retailers and consumer discretionary stocks are gaining on expectations that consumers will have more money to spend. Examples of stocks being bought are Walmart (WMT), Dollar General (DG), and The Kroger (KR).
In the middle of the momo crowd’s uber bullishness about Democrats’ magic cure, prudent investors need to separate reality from wishful thinking. In The Arora Report analysis, here are the key points:
- More subsidies may help consumers and hospitals, but they do not lower the underlying cost of healthcare. Someone still has to pay.
- Democrats cannot wave a wand and lower mortgage rates, construction costs, or home prices. Building more homes takes years.
- More government assistance may boost spending, but it does not make groceries, insurance, or other necessities cheaper.
- Putting more money in consumers’ pockets without increasing supply can push prices even higher.
- More spending without offsets could push Treasury yields higher, making mortgages even less affordable.
- Lower prices for consumers can mean lower profits for businesses. The momo crowd seems to be overlooking this conflict.
- Some companies will genuinely benefit from policy changes while others are simply being bid up on hopes that may never materialize.
In The Arora Report analysis, investors blindly chasing campaign promises may be making a costly mistake. History tells us that campaign promises and governance are two different things.
The momo crowd’s belief in Democrats’ ability to deliver on campaign promises is bifurcating the AI trade. Investors are buying hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), while selling semiconductors, data center equipment suppliers, and power companies. Examples of stocks being sold are Micron (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), Vertiv (VRT), and Vistra (VST). Unlike some of the other post-election trades, this one has some basis, but both buying and selling are overdone:
- As we shared in yesterday’s Morning Capsule, restrictions on new data centers make existing data centers more valuable.
- Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have a major advantage. Their existing infrastructure becomes more valuable and harder for competitors to replicate.
- Fewer new data centers could also mean less capital spending, better free cash flow, and reduced risk of overbuilding.
- Semiconductor companies, cooling and electrical equipment suppliers, and data center builders face the prospect of fewer orders.
- Smaller data center operators with heavy debt are especially vulnerable to construction delays.
In The Arora Report analysis, the momo crowd is missing a simple fact that hyperscalers are the biggest buyers of semiconductors.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We have been sharing with you our analysis that semiconductor supply and demand may come into equilibrium in 2028.
Also, as a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve in that we have been sharing with you that physical AI is ahead – robots, autonomous vehicles, drones, and intelligent industrial machines. Physical AI could eventually use more semiconductors than today’s data centers.
Initial jobless claims came at 189K vs. 197K consensus. This indicates that the employment picture is strong.
The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and negative Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7732 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7733, 7795, and 7831 : support levels are 7626, 7541, and 7318.

DJIA futures are up 336 points.

Gold futures are at $4130, silver futures are at $52.82, and oil futures are at $89.34.

BLUE WAVE – AVOID THE MOMO CROWD’S COSTLY MISTAKES – DATA CENTERS, MUSK, SOLAR, DEFENSE; IRAN KEY

Nov 4, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Look Ahead – Iran Is The Key

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

As a reminder, The Arora Report is politically agnostic. Our sole job is to help investors generate high risk adjusted returns.
Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
The chart shows SOXL is consolidating below the low band of zone 3 (resistance) after the Blue Wave in the midterm election.
The intraday price action is insightful.
- After the market close yesterday, SOXL staged a major rally, trading as high as $78.36. As a reference, SOXL is trading at $70.20 as of this writing in the premarket.
- The rally in SOXL was due to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reporting earnings higher than the whisper numbers and guiding significantly higher than prior projections. The consensus for AMD earnings were $1.94, and whisper numbers were around $2.01. AMD reported $2.09. AMD is seeing FY27 revenue growth of over 80%. AMD earnings are especially important after competitor Intel’s (INTC) weak report.
- In the premarket this morning, SOXL has not only given up all of its gain, it is trading down 3.37% from yesterday’s close.
- AMD traded as high as $530.38 on earnings. In the premarket this morning, AMD has given up most of the gain and is now trading at $486.10.
RSI on the chart shows that the bullish divergence has been negated by the Blue Wave.
Momo investors are rushing to sell AI stocks and rushing to buy stocks perceived as winners from the Blue Wave. Here are the key points from The Arora Report analysis:
- The momo crowd is making a mistake reacting instead of analyzing. The momo crowd is ignoring the fact that President Trump is still president and Democrats controlling Congress is not a guarantee they can deliver everything investors are betting on.
- The momo crowd is aggressively selling data center stocks on Texas turning blue. The momo crowd is missing an important point. Republican Governor Abbott had already halted new data center permits. If Texas makes it harder to build new facilities, existing data centers with secured electricity could become significantly more valuable. The momo crowd is selling data center stocks without distinguishing between existing facilities and projects that may never get built. If new data centers cannot be built in Texas, much of that investment will flow to other states.
- Nvidia (NVDA), AMD, Intel, and Micron (MU) do not need their chips to end up in Texas. What matters is how much AI computing capacity gets built.
- Solar and wind stocks are running up as if energy policies have changed, but they have not. There is no guarantee the newly elected Democratic Congress will change energy policies. Further, data centers need reliable electricity around the clock. Wind and solar alone cannot provide that without storage or other backup. The momo crowd is betting on a political shift instead of looking at the economics.
- Hospital and health insurance stocks are jumping on expectations of more government healthcare spending. The momo crowd is ignoring the fact that the national debt is already over $40T, and changes in government healthcare spending would need the support of the Trump administration.
- The momo crowd is selling defense stocks indiscriminately. President Trump’s proposed $1.5T defense budget may face opposition, but the world has not become safer because Democrats won Congress. Iran remains the key with the possibility of renewed military action. The need for advanced weapons, missile defense, and replenishing military stockpiles is not going away.
- Elon Musk spent hundreds of millions of dollars supporting Republicans, and now the Blue Wave is putting pressure on stocks associated with Musk. Prudent investors know to separate their politics from their investments. SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) have announced an initial $16.8T Texas semiconductor project, and SpaceXAI has explored building major data centers in Texas. Political headwinds may delay some projects, but they do not automatically destroy the long term economic value.
In The Arora Report analysis, the biggest winners from the Blue Wave are unlikely to be the stocks the momo crowd is buying today. Some of the stocks being sold could actually benefit as the consequences of the election play out. History shows following the crowd on political headlines without understanding the economics is a good way to lose money.
In The Arora Report analysis, the next big question for prudent investors is how will the Blue Wave change President Trump’s decision on Iran. Here are the key points:
- There are reports of celebrations in Iran on the Democratic victory in the U.S.
- Iran may mistakenly believe that the Democratic victory has weakened President Trump and strengthened Iran’s negotiating hand.
- President Trump no longer has to worry about the midterm elections. The political constraint that may have held him back before the election is now gone.
- President Trump is still commander-in-chief, and the new Democratic Congress does not take office until January 3. President Trump has considerable time to act before then.
- The Blue Wave cuts both ways. President Trump may want a deal to bring down oil prices. A credible deal could send oil lower and stocks higher. On the other hand, President Trump may decide that military escalation is the better way to force Iran to make concessions. Major new strikes could send oil soaring and stocks plunging.
If it was not for the pending Iran issue, The Arora Report call today would have been to deploy cash and reduce hedges; the Arora Protection Band would have been changed for lower protection. This would have been the case not because of the Democratic victory but because the overhang of the election has lifted. However, no change is being made at this time due to the uncertainty related to Iran.
At this time, it is worth a reminder to prudent investors of the Arora principle: Always give priority to return of capital over return on capital. There is truth to the old saying that it is not how much money you make, it is how much money you keep.
ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country. ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET. ADP employment change came at 86K vs. 75K consensus.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** and buying *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is indeterminable due to noise in the data. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 5.267M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.1M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7688 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7733, 7795, and 7831 : support levels are 7626, 7541, and 7318.

DJIA futures are up 1135 points.

Gold futures are at $4053, silver futures are at $52.04, and oil futures are at $93.46.

THE NEXT MARKET SETUP – APPLE’S AI AGENT PROBLEM, ELECTION RESET, AND MORE FORCED MOMO SELLING

Nov 3, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Election Day Crosscurrents

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows QQQ dipped into zone 2 (support).
The chart shows QQQ touched the 200 day moving average. Prudent investors need to know that a large number of investors have blind faith in the magical power of the 200 day moving average. Such investors sell on a breach of the 200 day moving average and buy on crossing above the 200 day moving average. Such investors have not thought through using first principles. They simply learned the anecdote and continue to adhere to it. The reality is the 200 day moving average has no inherent magical power. After all, why not 180 days or 220 days? The 200 day moving average derives its power from a large number of investors believing in it and acting on it. Such investors often get whipsawed.
Yesterday saw a continuation of margin calls from Friday. These margin calls led to forced selling in tech stocks in momo crowd accounts.
Historically, margin related forced selling runs its course and when it slows down, tech stocks lift. In the early trade, tech stocks are lifting in anticipation of forced selling ending. Prudent investors should carefully watch if tech stocks continue to lift throughout the day.
Apple (AAPL) is important because AAPL stock had continued to rise during tech stock carnage. Many investors were simply rushing into AAPL, believing it to be a safe stock. This morning, AAPL stock is falling after earnings. Earnings were good, but Apple is seeing margin degradation due to high memory prices. Some investors who recently bought AAPL, believing it to be a safe stock, are now selling AAPL stock.
In The Arora Report analysis, the most important issue facing Apple is AI agents. Apple derives significant revenue from its App Store, and the App Store is a strong moat. AI agents can bypass many apps. In the conference call, Apple was asked the AI agent question, but Apple failed to respond. This indicates that the AI agent issue for Apple is real and at this time, Apple does not have a solution. The issue is especially relevant for members of The Arora Report because AAPL is long from an average of $4.68. AAPL is trading at $323.80 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 6819%. Due to very large gains, AAPL is a very large position in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
On the positive side, in The Arora Report analysis, Apple has a huge opportunity ahead if Apple can get Siri right and find a good solution for AI agents.
Palantir (PLTR) is an important AI software stock. PLTR stock had been running up during the AI stock carnage. PLTR reported earnings better than consensus but below whisper numbers. There are also concerns about deceleration of commercial growth. PLTR has always derived significant business from the U.S. government. Bullish investors are betting on commercial growth. PLTR is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from an average of $20.15. It is trading at $166.58 as of this writing, representing a gain of 727%.
Midterm elections are today. Historically, it is a clearing event, and stocks rally irrespective of who wins. This time, there are two complications:
- The AI trade is in part dependent upon spending on data centers. There is rising sentiment against data centers. Election results may have an impact on data centers.
- The belief a few days ago that the U.S. would attack Iran after the midterm elections has quickly turned into belief that the U.S. and Iran will strike a deal after the election.
Oil is falling as the narrative of a U.S. Iran deal takes hold.
In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors need to be careful. There is no certainty which direction the Iran situation will go.
There are important earnings from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) after hours. AMD earnings will tell if the PC slowdown is an Intel (INTC) specific problem or if AMD is taking share from Intel. If the answer is that AMD is taking share from Intel and there is no general slowdown in PCs, it has the potential to reignite the AI trade.
Markets always have crosscurrents, both positive and negative. On this election day, it is important that investors do not get carried away with a bullish or bearish narrative and take time to understand the crosscurrents. It is also important for investors to not mix their politics with investing.
Even though jobless claims numbers have continued to show a strong employment picture, there is mounting concern about layoffs. Disney (DIS) is planning to achieve 20% cost savings with layoffs.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is selling oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7586 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7626, 7733, and 7795 : support levels are 7541, 7318, and 7194.

DJIA futures are down 158 points.

Gold futures are at $3973, silver futures are at $50.51, and oil futures are at $94.67.

10+ NEGATIVE SHOCKS HIT WALL STREET’S BULLISH POSITIONING; AAPL, AMD, PLTR AND MIDTERMS FRONT AND CENTER

Nov 2, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Bullish Positioning Shaken

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
The chart shows Friday SOXL fell 24.75% after opening below the low band of zone 3 and continuing to go lower during the day.
The chart shows SOXL is attempting to bounce this morning but is still well below the low band of zone 3.
The low band of zone 3 was previously support, but now it is resistance. Investors should carefully watch today to see if SOXL can rally above the low band of zone 3.
The chart shows that volume was heavy on the SOXL plunge. There are two different interpretations of the heavy volume:
- Heavy volume indicates conviction. If this interpretation is correct, there is more downside.
- Heavy volume indicates a clearing event, and thus indicates a temporary bottom.
In The Arora Report analysis, only time will tell which interpretation is correct. However, when combined with the positioning, a sequence of over ten negative events, RSI, and forced selling due to margin calls in momo crowd accounts, there is a significantly higher probability that Friday was a clearing event, at least temporarily.
RSI on the chart shows divergence. Coming into Friday, the AI trade was hit with a sequence of six new negative events, adding to the prior negative events totaling more than ten. Even if the stock market was hit with a couple of negative events, the AI trade on Friday would have likely gone higher instead of plunging. Note that RSI is significantly higher than it was at the recent low, but SOXL made a lower low. The divergence continues. For those who want to become exceptional investors, the foregoing is a great illustration of an important Wall Street secret. For in depth knowledge, listen to the new podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “WALL STREET SECRETS: HOW POSITIONING AND SEQUENCE OF EVENTS TRIGGER BIG MARKET MOVES.”
Going forward, front and center are three earnings and results of the midterm elections.
Here are the key earnings:
- Money has been flowing out of the AI trade and into Apple (AAPL) stock as many investors see AAPL as a safe stock to weather the AI storm.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) earnings are important given Intel’s earnings. Intel earnings was one of the negative events confronting the AI trade. For Intel’s earnings, see Friday’s Morning Capsule. At The Arora Report, we will be carefully analyzing AMD earnings to see if the issues are industry wide or Intel specific.
- Palantir (PLTR) has done well during the AI trade carnage. How PLTR stock and the AI react to Palantir earnings will be an important clue looking forward.
This morning, oil is dropping like a rock and gold is seeing buying on a report that President Trump favors negotiations with Iran over striking Iran.
ISM Manufacturing Index and JOLTS job openings will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7653 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7733, 7795, and 7831 : support levels are 7626, 7541, and 7318.

DJIA futures are up 380 points.

Gold futures are at $3956, silver futures are at $51.03, and oil futures are at $97.60.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

DIA, DJIA, GDX, GLD, QQQ, SLV, SPX, SPY, TBF, TBT, USO

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