WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: PAY ATTENTION TO “NOT MOTHER OF SUPPORT ZONES” FOR TECH STOCKS, HERE’S WHAT TO DO NOW

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

KURODA DIVERGES FROM POWELL, “NOT MOTHER OF SUPPORT ZONES” FOR TECH STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tech Wreck 

Please click here for a chart of  Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  •  mostly represents large tech stocks.
  • We have been receiving many requests to show the “not mother of support zone” on a chart of QQQ.
  • The chart shows that  is now at the top band of the support zone.
  • RSI on the chart shows that conditions are set for a rally in tech stocks.
  • The chart shows “not mother of support zones.” As a reference for new subscribers, in early 2020 at a time when the stock market was making new highs and not many were concerned about the virus, The Arora Report correctly called ahead of time the big upcoming drop in the stock market due to the virus and showed the “mother of support zones” on a chart.  The stock market fell to the top end of the “mother of support zones” and then went on to double.
  • Today is the Friday before a three day weekend.  Short squeezes tend to take place on Fridays especially going into a long weekend.  The reason is that short sellers do not want to take the risk of holding short positions over three days.
  • There was heavy momo crowd buying this morning, especially in tech stocks. However, heavy momo crowd buying has met with significant selling as of this writing. The reason appears to be that market crashes tend to occur on Mondays (Tuesday this time because Monday is a holiday).  In this environment, Fridays also bring a lot of fear.
  • If push and pull between a potential short squeeze and fear of a crash was not enough, today is also quadruple witching.  In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire. Quadruple witching may increase volatility.
  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture.  We discuss an individual stock only when it provides material information towards the big picture.   stock has become somewhat of a bellwether.   reported earnings after the close yesterday.  Going into earnings, momo gurus were urging their followers to aggressively buy ADBE stock ahead of earnings. The stock is down over 5% as of this writing.

Kuroda Diverges From Powell

As the head of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda is one of the most powerful men in the world.  Kuroda is diverging from Powell and other central banks and deciding to keep Japan’s interest rate near zero.  The yen is falling on the news.  This move has major implications and may ultimately provide significant opportunities in Japan.

Europe

We previously shared with you that the European Central Bank (ECB) was planning on a new tool to stop fragmentation between Northern European countries and Southern European countries.  So far, just the fact that the new tool may be coming is working.  The spread between German bunds and Italian bonds is narrowing.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.  It is now clear that a part of the big sell off in bitcoin earlier this week was due to insolvency of Three Arrows Capital.  The firm had $18B under management and was a major player in crypto.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 due to quadruple witching and push and pull between a short squeeze and the fear of a crash.    This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1854, silver futures are at $21.84, and oil futures are $113.67.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3770, 3860 and 3950: support levels are 3630, 3600 and 3520.

 futures are up 33 points.

Protection Bands And What To Do Now?

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 🔒 in cash or treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 🔒, and short term hedges of 🔒. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

 

SWISS SPOIL THE HOPE STRATEGY IN THE STOCK MARKET – SPOT ON EARLY WARNING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Opportunities Ahead

There are significant opportunities ahead.  Bear markets are great for knowledgeable investors to accelerate generating wealth.

Do not fall for the common pitfall – many investors get excited when the market is going up and buy high, but when bargains start appearing as the market goes down, investors stop watching the market and become disinterested.

The best way to avoid the pitfall is to focus on the clear goal of maximizing the wealth you generate over your lifetime.  Click here for a very helpful podcast to stay focused and avoid the pitfalls.

Swiss Spoil The Hope Strategy

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market fell out of bed after Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised a key interest rate. Here are the details:
    • SNB raised its key interest rate to -0.25% from -0.75%.
    • This was the first increase by SNB since 2007.
    • The increase was unexpected.
    • They expect inflation to be about 3%.
  • The chart shows that the momo crowd using the hope strategy was buying yesterday before the Fed meeting and after the meeting.
  • The chart shows that momo crowd buying became very aggressive after hours.
  • The Arora Report early warning from yesterday morning has proven spot on. We wrote,

Remember that historically, the first reaction to the Fed is often the wrong reaction and often reverses. 

  • The chart shows that at least temporarily the gains in the stock market from the Fed announcement have reversed.
  • There are two very good reasons why we keep sharing with you that hope is not a good strategy in the stock market.
    • Ideally, we do not want even a single member of The Arora Report to fall in the trap that the momo crowd perpetually stays in. Hope is one of the two main strategies that the momo crowd uses, and they are repeatedly burned.
    • We are seeing an influx of new subscribers as Arora Report members share with their friends how well they have done compared to other services and passive investing. It is important to help new members not fall in the trap of the hope strategy.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The VUD indicator shows the magnitude of net demand after hours.
  • The VUD indicator also shows that as of this writing, there is net demand for stocks as the momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip on the hope strategy.

Jobless Claims

Jobless claims came at 218.5K vs. 215K consensus.

Housing Starts

Housing starts came at 1.549M vs. 1.73M consensus.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade. Smart money is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade. Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade. Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1831, silver futures are at $21.55, and oil futures are $114.63.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3770, 3860 and 3950: support levels are 3630, 3600 and 3520.

 futures are down 565 points.

 

TO AVERT CRISIS, EMERGENCY ECB MEETING AHEAD OF FED; CONSUMER SLOWS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed Day

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market is at a critical junction.
  • The chart shows that yesterday the stock market fell below the low band of the support zone.
  • The chart shows that this morning bulls are trying to rally the stock market ahead of the Fed meeting.
    • This is all momo crowd buying in the early trade.
    • The pattern of the momo crowd buying ahead of the Fed meeting is holding true.
  • The chart shows that RSI is now oversold.
  • The chart shows that our call based on RSI has proven spot on. Our reading of RSI was that the market could go lower when most experts were calling for the market to go higher based on RSI. At a time when the stock market was significantly higher, we wrote

Those with deep knowledge of RSI will see that RSI shows that there is more room to fall.  On the other hand, those without deep knowledge of RSI will claim that RSI is oversold and will give a buy signal.

  • RSI now is such that the stock market can easily move significantly whichever direction it first starts moving. The reason is that the momo crowd will start buying aggressively if the market starts moving higher, but the momo crowd will start selling if the market moves lower. Wall Street’s machines will exaggerate the move whichever direction the market is moving.
  • Be careful with the media. Have you noticed that the media becomes bullish when the stock market starts going up, and then they turn on a dime and become bearish when the market starts going down?
  • Remember that historically, the first reaction to the Fed is often the wrong reaction and often reverses. 
  • The debate rages about the amount of the rate hike.  In our analysis, at this time, it is not the amount of the rate hike but the guidance for the future the Fed gives that will be a market moving event.  

Averting The Crisis

European Central Bank (ECB) held an emergency meeting this morning to avert the crisis.

You may remember the European crisis about a decade ago. At that time the consensus was that the euro would not survive. Long time subscribers will remember that The Arora Report’s call at that time was among a small minority that the euro would survive.  Our call turned out to be correct, and that resulted in a number of profitable investments.

What is happening now in Europe is very similar to what started the crisis a decade ago.  Bid ask spreads on bonds  in countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece are widening.  

The fundamental issue is and has always been that northern European countries have more fiscal discipline than southern European countries.  

ECB has announced that it will create a new tool to prevent the risk of eurozone fragmentation. This is a positive.

Consumer Slows

The US economy is about 70% consumer based. For this reason, investors should pay attention to retail sales. Here are the details of the new data just released.

  • Retail Sales came at -0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus.
  • Retail Sales Ex-auto came at 0.5% vs. 0.7% consensus.

There has been much debate about the contradiction between consumer continuing to spend and low consumer sentiment. Now with this data that debate is settled. The consumer was suffering from recency bias just like investors are still suffering from recency bias.

The consumer has now caught up with the reality and is slowing down. Prudent investors should note that most investors, their gurus, and the media have still not caught up with reality.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade. Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade as is their pattern ahead of the Fed meeting.

Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade. Smart money is 🔒 oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

About a month ago when bitcoin was trading at $31,280, The Arora Report call was that the target for bitcoin was $21,000. Bitcoin has now hit $21,000 and the call has proven spot on.

The main reason behind the call was that MicroStrategy (MSTR) was a sitting duck because it would receive a margin call if bitcoin were to fall below $21,000.  MicroStrategy’s average cost is about $30,000.

Our 30 years in the markets have taught us that when something becomes a sitting duck, markets will take it out.

Expect bulls to buy and take a stand in the range of $20,000 – $21,000 in an attempt to run bitcoin higher. Having said that in our analysis, there are many more margin calls ahead if bitcoin falls below $19,000.  If these margin calls materialize, the next target zone is $15,000 – $16,000.  It will all come down to how high bulls can rally from here.

Gold will benefit from this fall in bitcoin. The only reason gold did not rise to $2,500 is because the money that would have normally moved into gold moved into crypto. However gold does not like rising interest rates and rising interest rates are a headwind for gold.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 and will depend on the guidance from the Fed. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up after a very large move higher in interest rates yesterday.

The dollar is weaker after a strong recent upmove.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1835, silver futures are at $21.62, and oil futures are $118.87.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3860, 3950 and 4000: support levels are 3630, 3600 and 3520.

 futures are up 220 points.

 

WALL STREET JUMPS ON 75 BP BANDWAGON, BUT NEW INFLATION DATA MODERATE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Should You Buy Stocks Today?

Start out with Arora’s Third Law: Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.

Investors should think in terms of probability adjusted risk reward ratio.

The momo crowd often buys before the Fed meeting. The market is setup such that whichever direction it starts moving, both machines and the momo crowd will aggressively go in that direction. As a result, there can be a violent move in either direction.  For long term positions, the best course of action is summarized in the “Protection Bands And What To Do Now” section below.

Based on probability adjusted risk reward, it is not prudent to start very long term positions until there is more clarity or there is capitulation and a buy signal given.

Short term trades are fine.

Producer Price Index 

Please click here for a chart of Fed Funds futures (ZQ_F).

Note the following:

  • As usual, The Arora Report was ahead of Wall Street. On June 10 we wrote,

The probability has increased that the Fed may have to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

  • Wall Street has now jumped on the 75 basis point band wagon.
  • The chart shows that Fed Funds futures are now predicting a 75 basis point rate hike.
  • According to one bank, the risk of a 100 basis point rise is not trivial.
  • Events move fast. Producer Price Index (PPI) released this morning may moderate the 75 basis point view. Here are the details:
    • Headline PPI came at 0.8% vs. 0.8% consensus, but the whisper numbers were higher; prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%.
    • Core PPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.6% consensus; prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%.
  • Stock futures jumped on the PPI data hoping for a 50 basis point hike.
  • Powell is in a tough spot. He previously stated that the hike would be 50 basis points and rejected 75 basis points. If he does not go with 75 basis points, he will be accused of not being tough on inflation. If he goes with 75 basis points, Powell will be accused of not properly communicating beforehand.
  • In our analysis, more important than the amount of the hike will be the forward guidance, especially about the terminal rate.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil production in Libya has lost 1.1M bpd as nearly all oil fields are shut down.  The shut downs are due to new violence between two political factions.  Oil is moving on the news. 

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

On May 15, Nigam was quoted in Business Standard:

Nigam Arora, a US-based financial market and algorithm expert and author of The Arora Report, said, “The Bitcoin is highly correlated to long-duration speculative tech stocks on the Nasdaq. Typically, many investors own both. Long-duration tech stocks have been crushed due to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates.  In the short term, the Bitcoin will attempt to rally because it is oversold.  However, MicroStrategy’s huge hoard of Bitcoin (average cost $30,000) is a sitting duck because MicroStrategy will receive a margin call if Bitcoin falls below $21,000.  The bears will try to drive Bitcoin below $21,000.”

At the time of the quote, bitcoin was trading at $31,280.  Our call was that $21,000 was the target.  Bitcoin has now hit $21,000, and the call has proven spot on.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) may need to post additional collateral to maintain the loans it has taken out to buy bitcoin.  

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 because of moderating PPI number and momo crowd 🔒 in the morning.  However, based on the rumors about the Fed’s move tomorrow, the indicator can quickly turn down.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up after a major rise in interest rates yesterday.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1822, silver futures are at $21.23, and oil futures are $122.97.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3860, 3950 and 4000: support levels are 3770, 3630 and 3600.

 futures are up 105 points.

 

CHINA THREATENS WAR WITH THE US – STOCK MARKET FALLS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Raise Hedges

Consider raising short term hedges to 8% – 14% from the prior 4% – 9%.

Those who do not hedge may want to increase cash.  To learn more, please see the separate post titled “Update On Hedges.”  A new post will be published shortly.

These actions should preferably be taken on bounces.

The Chart

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that for practical purposes, in the early trade, the market has retraced back to the low from May 20.
  • The chart shows that the rally was a bear market rally and a bull trap.
  • The chart shows that the bullish momo gurus have been proven wrong.
  • Expect momo gurus to proclaim that a successful retest of the low is underway and that this is a great buying opportunity.  Keep in mind that the job of the momo gurus is to persuade investors to continue to buy.  Your goal is not the same as that of the momo gurus.  Your goal should be to maximize the wealth you generate in your lifetime.
  • Please listen to the podcast titled “The Goal: Maximize Your Wealth Over Your Lifetime.”  This podcast is available to all members.  You do not have to be an AAC member to listen to this podcast.  Under present market conditions, this podcast will be very helpful to you.  Please click here to listen.
  • The chart shows that the market is now in the support zone.
  • There is a better than 65% probability that ultimately this support zone may be breached, and the market may head towards the “Not Mother Of Support Zones.”
  • The chart shows that previously volume was not heavy, but it was heavier during Friday’s selloff.  This is a negative.
  • Those with deep knowledge of RSI will see that RSI shows that there is more room to fall.  On the other hand, those without deep knowledge of RSI will claim that RSI is oversold and will give a buy signal.

Capitulation

We are receiving a large number of questions asking if a capitulation has taken place. It is the most important question that investors can ask right now.  The reason is that if you can identify a capitulation, it can be tremendously profitable as it often leads to a major buy signal.

The answer to your questions is that a capitulation has not yet taken place.  Be careful because the knowledge in the media about capitulation is grossly incomplete.  Most of the gurus making capitulation calls have been consistently wrong because they have not learned the truth about capitulation but simply depend on outdated textbooks.

The very important podcast titled “The Ten Secrets Of Epic Capitulation Riches” was recorded over the weekend and is now in post-production.

China Threatens War With The US

China is threatening war with the US.  This is adding to the angst over inflation and the Fed to bring the stock market down.  After the West was united and imposed severe sanctions on Russia, expectations were that China would learn and back off.  Instead, China appears to want to follow Russia’s footsteps and has become even more aggressive.  Over the weekend, China said that it will “fight to the very end” to make sure Taiwan does not stay independent.

Inverted Yield Curve

An inverted yield curve is a signal of an impending recession.  The yield curve briefly inverted this morning. Please see prior posts on the subject.

The Fed

The Fed meeting starts tomorrow.  The FOMC rate decision will be announced at 2pm ET on Wednesday.

Terminal Rate

In our analysis at The Arora Report, the probability is going higher that Fed funds terminal rate may need to go above 4% to control inflation.  Many strategists are still around 2% – 2.5%.

In our analysis, the market is not prepared for such a high rate

75 Basis Points

Powell committed himself to a 50 basis point hike in June.  In our analysis at The Arora Report, the probability of a 75 basis point hike is increasing, perhaps later.  We previously shared with you our analysis that the market is not prepared for a 75 basis point hike.

Quadruple Witching

Quadruple witching is ahead and has potential to artificially cause big moves to the upside or the downside.

Worst Quarter

So far, this is shaping up to be the worst quarter since 2008 for the standard 60/40 portfolio that is the bedrock of many money managers.

Japan In Trouble

Japanese yen hit a 24 year low this morning.  If you think gas prices are too high in the US, think about Japan.  Oil is priced in dollars.  The dollar is very strong; the yen is getting weaker. Gas prices are soaring in Japan, more than in the US.  The head of the Japanese Central Bank is becoming very unpopular for his money printing policies.  The Japanese are learning, just like Americans, that there is no free lunch.  It is important to pay attention to Japan because Japan is the third largest economy in the world.  

Momo Stock Bankruptcy

One of the favorite momo stocks was Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS).   has become the first electric vehicle maker to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and liquidate.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is breaking down.  The market is gunning for Microstrategy’s (MSTR) large bitcoin position.  It appears that  will receive a margin call if bitcoin falls under $21,000.  Bitcoin has fallen 11% today to $23,614.

Celsius is pausing bitcoin withdrawals.

Binance, the largest crypto exchange by some measures, is temporarily putting a hold on withdrawals.

It appears that in the crypto world it is a run on the bank, but there is no government protection.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are rising fast, and bonds are falling rapidly.

The dollar is very strong.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1845, silver futures are at $21.39, and oil futures are $118.09.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3860, 3950, and 4000 : support levels are 3770, 3630, and 3600.

 futures are down points 604.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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