February 20, 2010

EXITING $BCRX ( BIOCRYST ) WITH PROFIT

Based on ZYX Change Method, we shorted flu stocks. We have now taken profits on all of these stocks with the exception of $BCRX. Our proprietary money flow indicators are beginning to turn up, therefore ZYX Change Method discipline dictates an exit. For performance tracking purposes, we will use Friday’s closing price of $6.90.for buy to cover. We overstayed in the position as the stock traded as low as $5.55 since we initiated the short position.

… Please click here or the title below to read more.

February 20, 2010

EXITING $AVAV (AEROVIRONMENT) WITH PROFIT

We are buying to cover $AVAV. Friday’s closing price is $25.33. Our original short was based on the thesis that drone business has become more competitive and margins are declining while the Wall Street stays enamored with the apparent sexiness of drones killing terrorists.

FY2011 defense budget submission creates more uncertainties for $AVAV. Based alone on its defense business, we would have stayed short on the stock. However, based on the hype surrounding home charging stations for LEAF electric car from Nissan, it is prudent to take advantage of recent sell off and cover the position. Earlier, we took advantage of the hype to add to our short position.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

February 20, 2010

UPDATE ON OPEN INDIVIDUAL STOCK POSITIONS

We are exiting $BCRX and $AVAV; please see separate posts for the reasons.

We are short on $ACOR with average price of $30.28. Our thesis has not changed in that Ampyra is not a very good drug, although Wall Street has termed it a blockbuster drug. .

In the short term, the bulls may be right. For the first time MS patients with difficulty in walking have hope. MS patients, in general tend to be very knowledgeable about new drugs and as such they are likely to demand that neurologists prescribe Ampyra. Anecdotal evidence supports that neurologists will initially cede to such requests.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

February 20, 2010