When I recommended Apple(AAPL) at $131, I stated that a $1,000 very long-term target was possible. In recent months, however, my models have been steadily reducing the probability of Apple reaching that $1,000 target. The last probability I published was 53%.
Over the past month, I was in Asia, and wrote about the wide use of non-Apple products. (See, ‘Trip To Asia Shows How Apple’s Vaunted Ecosystem Doesn’t Save It From Competition.’) As the information from the Asia trip is incorporated in the model, the probability of reaching $1,000 target will go down further, but there is one potential salvation, if Tim Cook is able to follow Steve Job’s formula for running the company, Apple stock at $1,000 in 2013 is possible.
Steve Jobs had a simple formula, introduce a major innovation every three years. In 2001, it was the iPod, followed in 2004 by major innovations in a new generation of iPods, the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010.
To break out of the rut Apple stock is in, Apple needs to introduce not only a new innovation, but a major new category. If Apple were to introduce iTV that was not merely evolutionary but revolutionary on par with iPhone and iPad introductions, Apple stock would start a new strong leg higher.
In a recent interview with Brian Williams of NBC News, Tim Cook hinted at such potential development. Cook stated that the TV market has been left behind and Apple had intense interest in it…Read more at Forbes
