For years, on the evening Apple reports earnings, my routine has been to carefully analyze the earnings report, listen to the conference call and ask for the data to be entered into our algorithms. The purpose always is the same — to come up with a new buy zone, a “buy now” rating and other signals that are appropriate especially for a trade-around position.
The most important metric I look at is the unit sales of iPhones, given that the iPhone contributes the vast majority of Apple’s AAPL profits. For practical stock analysis purposes, Apple is an iPhone company. Yes, I know it has other products. In the conference call, Apple shocked by saying that it will no longer release unit sales. What does this mean? Let’s explore with the help of a chart.
Please click here for the chart of money flows in 11 popular tech stocks based on my proprietary algorithms. Please note the following:
• Momentum, or momo, money flows were positive and smart money flows were neutral going into Apple’s earnings. The momo crowd is driven mostly by share-price momentum.
• After the earnings, momo money flows became negative and became extremely negative when Apple announced it wouldn’t release unit sales numbers going forward. Those money flows have remained negative.
• As the chart shows, “smart money” flows in Apple have remained neutral even after Apple’s shocking announcement. Isn’t the smart money concerned about Apple hiding its unit sales numbers? I will explore this later in this column. The smart money represents sophisticated investors who act based on deep analysis and better information.
• Momo money flows have been like a yo-yo in Amazon AMZN, and Netflix NFLX.
• As the chart shows, momo money flows among semiconductor stocks are extremely positive in AMD AMD, have turned positive in NVIDIA NVDA, and remain negative in Intel INTC.
• Momo money flows are extremely negative in Alibaba BABA, and Facebook FB and negative in Alphabet GOOG, GOOGL,
• In contrast to momo crowd, smart-money flows are mild positive in Facebook and Alibaba.
• Smart-money flows are neutral in Microsoft MSFT, and Tesla TSLA but momo money flows are positive.
Why is Apple hiding?
At The Arora Report, we have been projecting for a while that iPhone unit sales would start declining. Apple announced that iPhone unit sales were flat in the last quarter. The fact that Apple has decided not to disclose iPhone unit sales going forward indicates that Apple expects iPhone unit sales to decline. This eventuality has been obvious to the smart money for a long time, and that is why smart money flows have not changed. This is one of the reasons that smart money wasn’t buying going into the earnings. Our “Buy Now” rating on Apple has also been “NO.”…Read more at MarketWatch.
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