BULLARD KILLS THE STOCK RALLY ATTEMPT

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.

Bullard Scare

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF ().

Note the following:

  • The chart shows when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was reported. Please see the Morning Capsule for details.
  • The chart shows the drop in  on the CPI numbers.
  • In the Morning Capsule prior to the market open, we wrote,

The expectation is that bullish gurus will come out and start proclaiming that inflation is going to slow. In our analysis at The Arora Report, we agree that inflation is likely to slow. The key question is if bullish gurus are able to rally the market from here.

  • The chart shows that our expectation has proven correct as bullish gurus rallied the market.
  • The bullish gurus would have likely succeeded in moving the market higher into the close if it was not for St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard.
  • The chart shows when Bullard made his comment causing the stock market to fall.
  • Bullard said that he favors a total of 100 basis point increase in the Fed rate by July.
  • The consensus is for only 50 basis point by July.
  • The Fed officers can be divided into two categories: hawkish and dovish.  Bullard has always been hawkish.  It is not clear how much Bullard is going to influence other Fed officers.  If the comment that Bullard made had come from a dovish officer, the call would have been to aggressively raise cash and hedges.  Since Bullard has a history of being hawkish, it is prudent to wait.  The market can easily rally if a dovish Fed officer comments to calm the fear.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The chart shows that the VUD indicator is mostly orange indicating solid net supply of stocks.
See also  BUYING IN THE STOCK MARKET ON TAMER PPI AND ECB SIGNAL

Money Flows

The momo crowd money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial).

Smart money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒.

Short squeeze money flows are 🔒.

A Special Note To New Subscribers

Note the smart money behavior.  Smart money tends to sell into strength on strong up days.

New subscribers should consider adopting smart money’s way of investing and trading.

Sentiment

Sentiment is 🔒.

Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes.  In plain English, this means that when sentiment becomes extremely positive it is time to sell and when sentiment becomes extremely negative it is time to buy.

Close

There appear to be sell on close orders.

There is merit to watching the pattern of market on close orders as they represent the day’s dominant net cumulative activity by many professionals and funds.

Gold

The momo crowd money flows in gold are 🔒since the Morning Capsule.

Smart money flows are 🔒in gold since the Morning Capsule.

Oil

The momo crowd money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Smart money flows in oil are 🔒since the Morning Capsule.

Buy Zones And Buy Now Ratings

🔒

Nibbling

🔒

This post was published yesterday in The Arora Report paid services.  Since then the Morning Capsule has had an update in the paid services.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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