WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: INVESTOR EXCITEMENT ON COOLER INFLATION TEMPERED BY FIVE WARNINGS FOR THE STOCK MARKET

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

$2 TRILLION OPTION EXPIRATION – IRAN BACKCHANNEL MESSAGING CAUSES OIL COLLAPSE

November 17, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Iran Backchannels

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market is consolidating after the big rally.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is overbought in the very short term.
  • The magnet now is the mini resistance zone on the chart.
  • Financial Times is known for its sources in the Middle East.  The headline today of Financial Times is “Iran Told U.S. It Did Not Want Israel-Hamas War To Escalate (Through Backchannels).”
  • Investors who want to outperform markets have, for ages, pursued the quest of being able to read tomorrow’s newspaper today.  Over the years, there have been hundreds of times when members of The Arora Report knew in advance what subsequently appeared as newspaper headlines.  Eight days before the Financial Times headline on November 9, The Arora Report Morning Capsule stated,

The indication from our sources is that Iran is concluding that fighting the U.S. directly will be a losing proposition.

  • The foregoing is important because oil collapsed as the fear of Iran opening a second front abated.  Falling oil prices reduced inflation.  Lower inflation drives bonds higher.  Due to the market mechanic of 100:1 leverage, a massive rally was triggered in the stock market.  For those who want to take their investing to the next level, listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “Market Mechanics: 100:1 Bond Leverage Can Trigger Major Stock Market Moves.
  • About $2T notional value of options are expiring today. Here is the key question for investors: “Will these options be rolled over?”  The answer to this question is important.  If investors choose to roll over these options, it will move the stock market higher.  On the other hand, if investors choose not to roll over most of these options, it will put downward pressure on the stock market.
  • At The Arora Report, we are keeping close tabs on option expiration.  The result of our analysis is incorporated in the Protection Band.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil prices have collapsed on Iran not wanting to open a second front.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1986, silver futures are at $23.96, and oil futures are at $74.28.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4531 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 108 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

PAY ATTENTION: THREE IMPORTANT COMPANIES SIGNAL A SLOWDOWN BUT MARKET MECHANICS ARE POWERFUL

November 16, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Slowdown 

Please click here for a chart of Walmart stock (WMT).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of WMT stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • Walmart is the largest retailer in the U.S. For this reason, any outlook from Walmart is very important.
  • The chart shows that WMT stock has fallen after the release of earnings.
  • The chart shows that WMT stock is now below the prior breakout line.
  • Walmart reported good earnings, but the stock is falling due to Walmart providing a cautious outlook after it saw consumer spending slow.   Walmart primarily caters to the lower income segment of the population.
  • The Arora Report call for months has been that consumer liquidity would start shrinking at the end of October.  Yesterday’s retail sales data showed that The Arora Report call is spot on.  Today, caution from Walmart provides another data point showing that The Arora Report call has proven spot on.  
  • In addition to Walmart, two other important companies are indicating a slowdown in enterprise spending.
    • Cisco (CSCO), the biggest networking company, is indicating that enterprise spending is slowing down.
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW), a big cybersecurity company, is indicating that even in cybersecurity, spending is likely to slow down.
  • We have been sharing with you that Wall Street’s earnings estimates are too high.  None of the three, new, important slowdown data points are a surprise to members of The Arora Report.  However, they are a surprise to Wall Street and most investors who are not members of The Arora Report. 
  • Will the stock market fall after seeing a slowdown from these three important companies?   The stock market always has crosscurrents.  The crosscurrent here pushing the stock market to the upside is a combination of several market mechanics.  We have been sharing these market mechanics with you and how they have impacted the stock market.  About two thirds of the market rise this year is due to market mechanics.
  • The market mechanic that is going to have the most impact on the stock market today is the 100:1 leverage in bonds.  Bond yields are moving lower on the slowdown reports.  Typically when the stock market is not afraid of a recession, when bond yields move lower, the stock market moves higher due to 100:1 leverage.  Since understanding market mechanics gives investors a big edge and details of market mechanics are kept close to the chest by Wall Street professionals due to their very high value, to help you, a new podcast titled “Market Mechanics: 100:1 Bond Leverage Can Trigger Major Stock Market Moves” is now live in Arora Ambassador Club. 
  • Initial claims came at 231K vs. 220K consensus.  The slowdown is not appearing in this data yet.  Initial claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  AN NON-AI STOCK REDDIT SHOWS EXPANDING AI EXUBERANCE, IMPORTANT TREASURY AUCTION AHEAD, FED MIA

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1974, silver futures are at $23.92, and oil futures are at $76.24.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4518 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 64 points.

 

WHOLESALE INFLATION LOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT RETAIL SALES DATA CREATES A RETHINK IN THE STOCK MARKET

November 15, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

New Important Economic Data

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the gap up yesterday and the follow up rally on better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI).
  • The chart shows the mini resistance zone that is the next magnet.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is very overbought in the short term.  However, this is common when market mechanics of positioning and year end chase take over.  Market mechanics are very powerful.  About two thirds of the stock market rise this year is due to market mechanics.  Wall Street professionals closely guard the details of market mechanics because of their very high value.  For those who want to take their investing to the next level, there are several podcasts on market mechanics in Arora Ambassador Club.
  • The chart shows that the stock market was running up earlier this morning prior to the release of important economic data on follow through momentum from yesterday.
  • There is more good news on inflation from the Producer Price Index (PPI).  Here are the details:
    • Headline PPI came at -0.5% vs. 0.1% consensus.  This is the biggest decline since April 2020.
    • Core PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • For a split second, futures rose on better than expected PPI, but then the data on retail sales gave investors pause.
  • Here are the details of retail sales data:
    • Headline retail sales came -0.1% vs. -0.3% consensus.
    • Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. -0.2% consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, even though retail sales are better than the consensus, they are worse than the whisper numbers that were floating around yesterday.  
  • Further in The Arora Report analysis, retail sales data shows that the consumer buying binge is beginning to slow down.  We projected months ago that consumer liquidity will start tightening up beginning in late October.  The just released data shows the Arora call was spot on.  Even though consumer liquidity is starting to tighten, the consumer still has significant liquidity to continue spending.
  • The crucial holiday spending is ahead.  The consumer is expected to go overboard on holiday spending.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, as consumer liquidity declines further next year, there may be a hangover after holiday spending.  
  • Right now, the stock market is not thinking that far ahead.  However, prudent investors should look as far ahead as they can and always attempt to get ahead of the curve.  When you look ahead, over a period of time, you end up extracting significantly more profits from the markets.
  • There are two important earnings from two retailers that have an impact on the entire market:
    • Target (TGT) stock is flying as the company reported earnings of $2.10 vs. $1.47 consensus. The company is issuing inline guidance.  Prudent investors should note that comparable same store sales fell 4.6%, comparable digital sales fell by 6.0%, and the total revenue was 4.2% lower than last year.
    • TJX (TJX) reported $1.03 vs. $0.99 consensus.  Revenues rose to $13.27 vs. $13.09B consensus. Of note for prudent investors is the company is issuing downside guidance for Q4; sees earnings of $0.97 – $1.00 vs. $1.13 consensus.
  • Biden and Xi are meeting in San Francisco today.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  PAY ATTENTION TO NVIDIA CHART FOR NEAR TERM MARKET DIRECTION, TECH INSIDERS SELL, BALTIMORE IMPACT

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 1.335M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.4M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1969, silver futures are at $23.47, and oil futures are at $77.44.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4524 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 47 points.

 

DEPLOY CASH AND REDUCE HEDGES – INFLATION BELOW EXPECTATIONS

November 14, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deploy Cash And Reduce Hedges

The trigger for the call to deploy cash and reduce hedges is two-fold:

  • Market mechanics of year end chase.  This market mechanic results in money managers aggressively buying stocks even if their opinion of the stock market is bearish.  Please listen to the podcast on the subject for more in-depth information.
  • Lower than expected CPI.

Please scroll down to the Protection Band And What To Do Now section for the changes.  The changes should be made in small tranches, especially if the stock market pulls back after this morning’s spike up.

CPI

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market is ripping higher this morning on better than expected CPI.
  • The chart shows that the next target is the mini resistance zone.
  • The chart shows when hedges were reduced previously.  The prior call was to deploy more cash.  Now, there is a new call to deploy more cash and reduce hedges further.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the market is overbought.  If the market pulls back due to overbought conditions, the pullback should be used to deploy more cash and reduce hedges.
  • CPI came better than expected.  Here are the details:
    • Headline CPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.
    • Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Home Depot (HD) earnings have broader implications.  Home Depot is also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).  Home Depot reported earnings slightly better than the consensus.  Prudent investors should note that Home Depot expects fiscal year earnings to be down 9% – 11% and same store sales to drop by 3% – 4%. In spite of this negative data, HD stock is being aggressively bought this morning on earnings.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1949, silver futures are at $22.42, and oil futures are at $78.53.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4487 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 355 points.

 

PRUDENT INVESTORS SHOULD CARE ABOUT MOODY’S DOWNGRADE OF U.S. CREDIT OUTLOOK

November 13, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Prudent Investors Should Care

Please click here for a chart of the federal deficit.

Note the following:

  • The chart goes back to 1900.
  • The chart shows that large federal deficits are a relatively recent phenomenon.
  • The chart shows about a $3T deficit during the pandemic when the government overdid giving away free money.   The government did not have the money to give away, so it borrowed more.
  • Even though the pandemic is behind us, the chart shows that large federal deficits are still there.  A big part of the deficits is the free money that is being given away right now through several programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Act.
  • Moody’s has downgraded the outlook on U.S. credit to negative from stable.  Moody’s cited the large federal deficit as a “key driver” behind the downgrade.  Here are pertinent excerpts from Moody’s:
    • “The downside risks to the US’ fiscal strength have increased and may no longer be fully offset by the sovereign’s unique credit strengths.”
    • “In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues, Moody’s expects that the US’ fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.”
    • “Continued political polarization within US Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability.”
  • The news came late Friday after the stock market close.  There was only a slight reaction on Friday in after hour trading.  When futures started trading on Sunday, the reaction was still slight.
  • This morning, the momo crowd is buying the slight dip driven by FOMO (fear of missing out), oblivious to Moody’s downgrade.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should pay attention to Moody’s downgrade, even though the momo crowd is buying the shallow dip.  The reason is that the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path.  In the long term, money is made by looking ahead.  A practical way for investors to protect themselves is to diversify by investing some money overseas and in different asset classes as appropriate.  For those who can, it is also very helpful to be able to short to take advantage of prices coming down.  Here are the three key points:
    • Money is to be made in the U.S. and outside the U.S.  Yet, most investors have 100% of their investments in the U.S.
    • Money is to be made when prices go up and when prices go down.  Yet, most investors try to make money only when prices are going up and do nothing more than complain when prices go down.  Imagine if someone was to insist on driving only on a one way road that went north.
    • A practical, actionable way to protect yourself and enhance your returns over the long term is to subscribe to the Corporate Bundle that brings you more opportunities from across the globe and also helps you make money when prices go down.  Please read the Accelerating Wealth Generation section in the Trade Management Guidelines.
  • Be careful if you are just looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).  DJIA is being boosted by one stock – Boeing (BA).  There are two reasons behind the boost in Boeing:
    • There are reports that China is about to lift the freeze on Chinese airlines buying Boeing jets.  This is a good will gesture from China ahead of Biden and Xi meeting.
    • Boeing is likely to win several orders from the Dubai Air Show.
    • As a full disclosure, BA is in the core Model Portfolio.
  • On the positive side, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown has lessened.  U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a two-step measure to postpone hard decisions to next year.  In essence, the proposal is the same as the proposal that resulted in the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  Hardline Republicans are opposed to this proposal.  However, indications are that the proposal is getting some Democratic support.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: INVESTORS BEGINNING TO REMEMBER RISKS IN STOCK MARKET

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is ***  stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.  There is some disappointment that whales did not run bitcoin to $40,000 over the weekend, taking advantage of low liquidity.  The disappointment is being countered by speculation that bitcoin ETF approval may come as early as this week.  There is also excitement about BlackRock (BLK) filing for an Ethereum ETF.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1939, silver futures are at $22.16, and oil futures are at $77.36.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4423  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4460, 4600, and 4713: support levels are 4400, 4318, and 4200.

DJIA futures are up/down 74 points.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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