By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Aggressive Buying

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 futures (ES_F).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows a big drop in stock futures on the news of an Israeli attack on Iran.
    • The strike targeted areas around Isfahan in central Iran.
    • Isfahan is known for a nuclear facility and also a drone factory.  Neither the drone factory nor the nuclear facility was struck.
    • Iran is downplaying the attack, claiming no damage was done.
    • By attacking Isfahan, Israel is sending a message that it is capable of attacking Iran’s nuclear facility.
    • Iran appears to be claiming that it is capable of attacking Israel’s nuclear facilities.
  • The chart shows that the dip in stock futures was aggressively bought.
  • Aggressive buying continues as of this writing.  The VUD indicator is green, indicating net demand for stocks.
  • The buying is entirely by the momo crowd.
  • Oil rallied on the attack but has given up all of its gains as of this writing.
  • Prudent investors should note that quite a shift is beginning to happen at the Fed.  Due to the high importance of this matter, we are preparing an important podcast on this subject. For access to this podcast, please fill out the form below. 
  • New York Fed President John Williams said that “if the data are telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goals, then we would obviously want to do that.”  As usual, the momo crowd is oblivious.
  • 2024 started with momo gurus claiming that they knew for sure that the Fed would cut interest rates six times in 2024 and two more times in 2025.  In the face of overwhelming data, now momo gurus have conceded that they were wrong.  The new momo narrative to persuade investors to buy stocks is that rate cuts do not matter because the Fed is not going to raise rates.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the bar is very high for the Fed to raise rates primarily due to pre-election political pressure.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed were to raise rates, the stock market can easily fall 20%.  
  • For this reason, prudent investors need to stay tuned to the economic data that we publish in the Morning Capsules.
  • Tesla stock (TSLA) has fallen below the psychological level of $150 in the premarket.  TSLA stock is down 40% year to date and 64% from its all time high.
    • TSLA is the only magnificent seven stock that is not in the Arora ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.
    • Prudent investors should note that it is equally important what you do not buy and hold as it is what you buy. This illustrates the proven power of The Arora Report methodology and the ZYX Change Method.
  • It is worth a reminder that on Monday this week, and also yesterday, smart money sold into the strength generated by momo crowd buying.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.


The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold positions in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.


The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.


On the news of the Israeli attack on Iran, bitcoin (BTC.USD) briefly fell below $60,000 in spite of all of the positive pitches to buy bitcoin because of the halving.  Since then, bitcoin has recovered along with tech stocks.  Bitcoin is now trading over $65,000 as of this writing.

The drop in bitcoin on the Israeli attack again busts the myth propagated by bitcoin whales that bitcoin is a hedge against risks.

Those who are prudent and interested in making money from bitcoin should consider listening to the three part podcast series titled “WHALES’ SECRETS YOU NEED TO KNOW: CAPTURING BITCOIN PROFITS.” 



Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  Keep in mind that today is a Friday.  There will be two opposing crosscurrents.  On the positive side, short squeezes tend to occur on Fridays, and the momo crowd tends to become more aggressive on Fridays.  On the negative side, smart money tends to trim positions on Fridays, especially when there is geopolitical risk over the weekend.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2395, silver futures are at $28.34, and oil futures are at $81.55.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5048 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 9 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.


Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

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This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert.

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Picture of Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Picture of Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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