By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

AGGRESSIVE STOCK DIP BUYING – IRAN DOWNPLAYS ISRAELI ATTACK – FED OFFICIAL TALKS RATE HIKE

April 19, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Aggressive Buying

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 futures (ES_F).

Note the following:

• The chart shows a big drop in stock futures on the news of an Israeli attack on Iran.
  • The strike targeted areas around Isfahan in central Iran.
  • Isfahan is known for a nuclear facility and also a drone factory.  Neither the drone factory nor the nuclear facility was struck.
  • Iran is downplaying the attack, claiming no damage was done.
  • By attacking Isfahan, Israel is sending a message that it is capable of attacking Iran’s nuclear facility.
  • Iran appears to be claiming that it is capable of attacking Israel’s nuclear facilities.
• The chart shows that the dip in stock futures was aggressively bought.
• Aggressive buying continues as of this writing.  The VUD indicator is green, indicating net demand for stocks.
• The buying is entirely by the momo crowd.
• Oil rallied on the attack but has given up all of its gains as of this writing.
• Prudent investors should note that quite a shift is beginning to happen at the Fed.  Due to the high importance of this matter, we are preparing an important podcast on this subject.
• New York Fed President John Williams said that “if the data are telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goals, then we would obviously want to do that.”  As usual, the momo crowd is oblivious.
• 2024 started with momo gurus claiming that they knew for sure that the Fed would cut interest rates six times in 2024 and two more times in 2025.  In the face of overwhelming data, now momo gurus have conceded that they were wrong.  The new momo narrative to persuade investors to buy stocks is that rate cuts do not matter because the Fed is not going to raise rates.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the bar is very high for the Fed to raise rates primarily due to pre-election political pressure.
• In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed were to raise rates, the stock market can easily fall 20%.  
• For this reason, prudent investors need to stay tuned to the economic data that we publish in the Morning Capsules.
• Tesla stock (TSLA) has fallen below the psychological level of $150 in the premarket.  TSLA stock is down 40% year to date and 64% from its all time high.
  • TSLA is the only magnificent seven stock that is not in the Arora ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.
  • Prudent investors should note that it is equally important what you do not buy and hold as it is what you buy. This illustrates the proven power of The Arora Report methodology and the ZYX Change Method.
• It is worth a reminder that on Monday this week, and also yesterday, smart money sold into the strength generated by momo crowd buying.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold positions in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

On the news of the Israeli attack on Iran, bitcoin (BTC.USD) briefly fell below $60,000 in spite of all of the positive pitches to buy bitcoin because of the halving.  Since then, bitcoin has recovered along with tech stocks.  Bitcoin is now trading over $65,000 as of this writing.

The drop in bitcoin on the Israeli attack again busts the myth propagated by bitcoin whales that bitcoin is a hedge against risks.

Those who are prudent and interested in making money from bitcoin should consider listening to the three part podcast series titled “WHALES’ SECRETS YOU NEED TO KNOW: CAPTURING BITCOIN PROFITS.” 

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  Keep in mind that today is a Friday.  There will be two opposing crosscurrents.  On the positive side, short squeezes tend to occur on Fridays, and the momo crowd tends to become more aggressive on Fridays.  On the negative side, smart money tends to trim positions on Fridays, especially when there is geopolitical risk over the weekend.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2395, silver futures are at $28.34, and oil futures are at $81.55.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5048 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 9 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

NEW DATA POINT SHOWS INSATIABLE DEMAND FOR AI CHIPS BUT CHART SHOWS BROADENING TOP PATTERN

April 18, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Insatiable Demand For AI Chips

Please click here for a chart of semiconductor ETF (SMH).

Note the following:

• This is an important chart for three reasons.
  • Semiconductors are the epicenter of the AI revolution.
  • Semiconductors are the leading sector in the stock market.
  • Semiconductors often provide an early indication of upcoming stock market moves.
• The chart shows a broadening top formation.  This is a negative.
• The chart shows a big drop in semiconductors yesterday after ASML (ASML) earnings.  Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers.  Earnings from TSM are important because TSM is the biggest independent semiconductor foundry and manufactures chips for Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Apple (AAPL).
• The chart shows that last time when TSM reported earnings, semiconductors broke out.
• This time, immediately upon the release of TSM earnings, there was a buying spike but the buying faded and the reaction is now muted as shown on the chart.
• TSM expects about 20% of its revenue from AI chips by 2028 and about 10% of its revenue this year to be from AI.
• Of importance is that TSM says that it plans to maintain its capital expenditure of $28B – $32B this year.
  • This is an important data point because after ASML earnings yesterday, many analysts were projecting a drop in capital expenditure on semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
• The new data point is that TSM CEO C.C. Wei said that there is an insatiable AI related demand for energy efficient computing power.  To some investors, the data from ASML earnings and TSM earnings is contradictory.  Prudent investors know that the stock market always has crosscurrents with contradictory data points.  Prudent investors pay attention to the data points that support their position and even more attention to the data points that go against their position.  In contrast, the momo crowd exaggerates data points that support their position and ignores the data points that go against their position.
• The broadening top pattern runs counter to insatiable demand.  This again shows crosscurrents.  The protection band takes into account hundreds of crosscurrents.
• Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, is saying that the Fed should not be in a hurry to cut rates.
• There is significant Fed speak ahead.  The Fed’s John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Susan Collins, and Raphael Bostic are speaking.
• Initial jobless claims came at 212K vs. 215K consensus. This indicates that the employment picture is strong.  Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
• Yesterday, smart money sold into the strength generated by momo crowd buying.  This morning, the momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip.  It is yet to be seen how smart money reacts.
• Of important note is that money continues to flow out of AAPL.  If you own AAPL stock or want to own AAPL stock, consider listening to the two part podcast series titled “MAXIMIZING RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS FROM AI IPHONE OPPORTUNITY.”
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil was hit hard yesterday after EIA data showed that inventories were building.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is trading around $62,000 as of this writing.  Many recent retail investors, who were lulled into buying above $70,000 on pitches about bitcoin halving from bitcoin whales’ propaganda machine, seem disappointed.

Those who are serious about making money in bitcoin should consider listening to the podcast titled “BITCOIN HALVING – SIX SECRETS WHALES DO NOT WANT YOU TO KNOW” in Arora Ambassador Club.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2402, silver futures are at $28.67, and oil futures are at $82.55.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5072 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 114 points.

POWELL SHIFTS BUT DOES NOT ADMIT HE WAS WRONG, OPPORTUNITY IN AI DRIVEN SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP EQUIPMENT MAKER

April 17, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

A New Opportunity In AI Ahead

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market has pulled back after breaking below the trendline.  
• The chart shows the support zone.  
• The chart shows that in spite of the pullback, the stock market is still about 5% above the support zone.  
• Powell had repeatedly made it clear that he was itching to cut interest rates.  This is what initially triggered the stock market rally in 2023 and kept the stock market rally going in 2024.  
• When inflation data from January came hotter than expected, the hot inflation data went against Powell, but Powell dismissed it as a one-off.  The hot inflation data for February again went against Powell, but Powell again dismissed it as a one-off.
• The chart shows when CPI data was reported for January, February, and March.   
• When the March inflation data came against Powell, prudent investors were eagerly awaiting how Powell would justify rate cuts after data went against him three months in a row.  Powell has now shifted, saying that it will take longer to be confident about inflation.  Powell acknowledged that progress on inflation has stalled.  Powell now expects to hold interest rates at the current level longer than he previously expected.  
• In the stock market, there was a short dip on Powell’s statement.  The momo crowd aggressively bought the dip.  This morning, the momo crowd continues to aggressively buy stocks.  
• Due to the importance of Powell’s switch and the consequences of Powell’s error over the last several months to investors, we are preparing a new podcast to provide you with important deep insights that are not available anywhere else.  The podcast will be available in Arora Ambassador Club.
• As the day and the week progresses, prudent investors need to stay alert to how the market reacts to earnings.  Earnings season is in full swing.  So far, earnings are mixed.  Prudent investors should also stay in tune with what smart money does.  As a reminder, when the momo crowd aggressively bought stocks after Iran attacked Israel, smart money took advantage of the strength generated by the momo crowd to trim stocks.  Please see Monday’s Afternoon Capsule for details.  
• Biden wants to increase tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.  Biden is targeting steel workers’ votes in Pennsylvania in the upcoming election.  Pennsylvania is an important swing state and could potentially be the deciding factor in the election.
• Artificial intelligence has dramatically increased the demand for advanced semiconductors.  In turn, semiconductor manufacturers have been ramping up orders for advanced chip making equipment.  For manufacturing advanced semiconductors, chip makers need extreme ultraviolet lithography machines from ASML.  ASML is a Dutch company and is the most valuable European tech stock.  New orders booked by ASML over the last quarter fell by 61% from the prior quarter as chip makers stopped buying as many advanced machines.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, this is a temporary dip.  ASML stock is down 4% in the early trade.  If it dips further and enters the buy zone, there will be a signal in ZYX Buy. 
  • Another semiconductor manufacturing firm Applied Materials (AMAT) is our favorite chip equipment making stock to profit from artificial intelligence.  AMAT is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  AMAT is long from $16.  It is trading at $205.85 as of this writing in the premarket.  This represents a profit of 1187% for long time members of The Arora Report. Along the way, newer members have had numerous opportunities to buy AMAT as it dipped into new buy zones.  
  • Investing in semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks is one of the best ways to profit from the artificial intelligence boom.  This belongs in the ‘picks and shovels’ strategy.  For those wanting deeper knowledge, there are several podcasts on this strategy in Arora Ambassador Club.  The Arora Report recommends that investors also diversify by strategy.  The Arora Report uses over 50 different strategies.  The easiest way to diversify by strategies is to follow the Model Portfolios.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. 

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 4.090M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is trading in the $62,000 range ahead of bitcoin halving.  

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2402, silver futures are at $28.55, and oil futures are at $84.82.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5110 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.  

DJIA futures are up 91 points.

PRUDENT INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO THE EXTRAORDINARY TREASURIES’ MOVE – MOMO OBLIVIOUSLY BUYS STOCKS

April 16, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Extraordinary Move In Treasuries

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that TLT has fallen below the support/resistance zone.  This prior support zone has now become a resistance zone.
• The chart shows that after a breakdown below the zone, Treasuries have continued to fall.
• The chart shows a downward sloping trendline and a significant move lower away from the trendline.
• The chart shows that the down move is on heavy volume.  This indicates conviction.
• Historically, at a time of geopolitical tension, money rushes into U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. Treasuries rocket up.  Based on history, on Iran attacking Israel, U.S. Treasuries should have moved up.  But as the chart shows, Treasuries have continued to move down.
• In The Arora Report analysis, Treasuries moving down in spite of the Iranian attack on Israel is quite extraordinary. 
• Prudent investors pay attention when something extraordinary happens in the markets.  
• Lower Treasuries mean lower stock valuations.  All investors should fully grasp this point.  To help, there are a number of podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club that make understanding this important concept easy and practical.  
• As is their pattern, the momo crowd is oblivious to this extraordinary development and is buying stocks.  The momo crowd’s buy the dip without analysis mentality is on full display.
• Fed Chair Powell has been itching to cut interest rates.  Clearly, the bond market is not only defying him, but it is telling him he is wrong.  Powell will be participating in a Q&A.  We will be paying close attention to what he says.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is saying there is no urgency to cut rates.
• Wall Street seems to be coming around.  A major bank is accepting the real risk of a rate hike.  Of course, as a member of The Arora Report, you already knew in advance that the data could force the Fed’s hand to raise rates at a time when everyone expects rate cuts.
• Lower Treasury bonds mean higher yields in the U.S.  Higher yields mean a higher  dollar.
• Central Banks of China, India, and Indonesia intervened in the forex market to defend their currencies against the dollar.  
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

IMF is warning the U.S. on excessive spending and ballooning debt.  IMF is also increasing its forecast of global growth in 2024 to 3.2% from 3.1%.

Housing Slows

After a breakneck pace, new home construction is finally slowing.  Here are the details:

• March housing starts came at 1.321M vs. 1.485M consensus.
• March building permits came at 1.458M vs. 1.518M consensus.

China – Beneath The Surface

China GDP growth beat the consensus.  In The Arora Report analysis, looking beneath the surface, there is weakness.  Here are the details:

• GDP came at 5.3% year-over-year vs. 4.8% consensus.
• March Industrial Production came at 4.5% year-over-year vs. 6.0% consensus.
• March Retail Sales came at 3.1% year-over-year vs. 5.1% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) halving is projected to be on April 19.  So far, whales have been very successful in using the halving as a pump to get mom and pop excited to buy bitcoin over $70,000 while whales themselves took profits.

Bitcoin is trading around $63,000 as of this writing.  Of course,  as a member of The Arora Report you already knew this could happen.  The easiest way to understand bitcoin halving and what is different this time is to listen to the podcast titled “BITCOIN HALVING – SIX SECRETS WHALES DO NOT WANT YOU TO KNOW.”

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** and will move based on what Powell says and developments in the Middle East.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2392, silver futures are at $28.43, and oil futures are at $84.77.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5113 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 233 points.

BEST OF ALL SCENARIOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, APPLE IPHONE SALES FALL 10%, TESLA TO LAYOFF 10%

April 15, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Financial Conditions Ease

Please click here for a chart of oil futures (CL_F).

Note the following:

• Oil is most sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
• The chart shows that oil is falling after an Iranian attack on Israel.
• The chart shows that oil is consolidating around the upper trendline.
• The best of all scenarios is playing out in the Middle East.
  • Although there are contradictory reports, it is near certain that Iran informed Turkey and Turkey informed the U.S. of the Iranian attack in advance.
  • The reason Iran informed the U.S. in advance is because Iran’s purpose was to show force and save face but not inflict much damage and for the U.S. to restrain Israel.
  • The advance notice allowed the U.S. and Israel to shoot down 99% of about 300 drones and missiles, resulting in very little damage.
  • Iran issued several statements that the operation was concluded.
  • Biden is working hard to restrain Israel.
  • Not only is oil down, stocks are being aggressively bought on the best Middle East scenario being played out.
• In The Arora Report analysis, Iran’s response to directly attack Israel has increased risks in the long term, especially without a robust response from Israel.
• Further, in The Arora Report analysis, Iran is buying time to build its nuclear capability.
• The momo crowd, being in a celebratory mood, is oblivious to several negative developments as outlined below:
  • A market research firm with a good track record is projecting that Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone shipments fell about 10% in the last quarter.  Apple shipped 50.1M iPhones according to this report.  The consensus from Wall Street analysts is 51.7M iPhones.  This is the worst drop in Apple iPhone shipments since the COVID lockdown.
  • Those interested in next level information should consider listening to the just released two part series “MAXIMIZING RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS FROM AI IPHONE OPPORTUNITY.”
  • Apple is long from $4.68 in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio from The Arora Report.  The prior Arora call has been to hedge the Apple position.  The hedges are profitable.  Stay tuned to the Real Time Feed for the plan on hedges and the potential change in the buy zone.
  • Tesla (TSLA) is laying off 10% of its workforce.  At the same time, Tesla is cutting the price for Full Self-Driving subscription to $99 from $199.  In The Arora Report analysis, this is a brilliant move by Musk.
• New economic data shows good news for the economy but bad news for the momo crowd.  After a brief hiatus, the U.S. consumer is back on a spending binge.  Since the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.  Here are the details:
  • Headline retail sales came at 0.7% vs. 0.4% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 1.1% vs. 0.5% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, to control inflation, it is important that financial conditions do not become too loose.  The root cause of financial conditions becoming too loose is Fed chair Powell.  Due to the high importance of this matter, we are starting work on a podcast on this subject.  Powell is trying his best to loosen financial conditions by jawboning at a time when the data clearly shows that Powell should be trying to tighten financial conditions.  Conservative analysts are concluding that Powell is acting this way to help with Biden’s re-election.  Trump has said that he will not reappoint Powell.  
• If retail sales continue to be strong, it argues against cutting rates at all.  In The Arora Report analysis, the data so far shows that even a rate hike should be on the table.  None of this is good for the stock market.  However, keep in mind that the stock market is controlled by the momo crowd, and the momo crowd does not do any deep analysis. 
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, TSLA

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil  

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) fell like a rock when the news of Iran’s attack on Israel broke.  For prudent bitcoin investors, this busts the popular myth propagated by bitcoin whales to lure in retail investors that bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitics.   

Those who are serious about making money in bitcoin may consider listening to the three part podcast series titled “WHALES’ SECRETS YOU NEED TO KNOW: CAPTURING BITCOIN PROFITS.”  The podcast is available in Arora Ambassador Club.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2375, silver futures are at $28.85, and oil futures are at $85.15.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5210 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5256, 5400, and 5500: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 326 points.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.