By Nigam Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Watch Arora Protection Band
Please click here for a chart of Moderna stock (MRNA).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MRNA stock is being used to illustrate the point that innovation is providing great opportunities for investors.
- The chart shows a very large move in MRNA stock.
- RSI on the chart shows MRNA stock is now very overbought.
- There is a major breakthrough in cancer treatment from Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK). Personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda met the key endpoints in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, significantly reducing recurrence and distant metastasis compared with Keytruda alone. This is the first positive Phase 3 trial for an mRNA based cancer therapy.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the significance goes well beyond melanoma. The results provide important validation of Moderna’s mRNA platform for treating cancer, potentially opening a large new opportunity beyond infectious disease vaccines. Moderna and Merck are already testing the approach across multiple cancers. Investors should note two potential catalysts ahead: detailed Phase 3 data and overall survival data.
- As a full disclosure, there are new signals on MRK and MRNA in ZYX Buy.
- In The Arora Report analysis, investors should start positioning for the coming humanoid robot boom. Humanoid robots require far more than AI processors. They need large amounts of analog semiconductor content for sensing, motor control, power management, battery management, safety, and real time connectivity.
- Analog Devices (ADI) is positioning itself across all of these critical functions and describes its technology as providing much of the robot’s physical interface and “nervous system” layer. ADI is in the Core Model Portfolio of ZYX Buy. Members of The Arora Report are long from an average of $83.25. ADI is trading at $382.00 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 359%.
- In The Arora Report analysis, ADI is an under the radar picks and shovels play on humanoid robots. ADI has pulled back about 15% from its June high, creating a better entry point for long term investors than chasing strength. However, ADI is still significantly above the Arora Buy Zone. Prudent investors should consider starting or adding to positions on major pullbacks by scaling in rather than buying all at once. Stay tuned to the Arora Buy Zone and Buy Now Rating.
- The South Korean stock market is important because lately the South Korean stock market has been leading the U.S. stock market, especially in memory stocks. The reason is that two of the three biggest memory makers SK Hynix (SKHY) and Samsung (SSNLF) are in South Korea.
- Overnight, the South Korean Kospi Index fell 6.39%, triggering a Sidecar mechanism. A Sidecar mechanism is a five minute suspension of program trading sell orders. The purpose is to slow down selling. Memory maker SK Hynix stock fell nearly 10%.
- SK Hynix quickly moved to calm the markets by announcing a $28B buyback. The move has triggered aggressive buying in semiconductors.
- Aggressive buying in stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, and silver has just been triggered by an unexpected announcement from the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. Treasury is doubling buyback support for long bonds. This is effective September 9, 2026 and will stay in force through November 4, 2026.
- In The Arora Report analysis, this is bullish for long duration bonds as it puts pressure on long term yields. Long term yields are dramatically falling after the announcement, and bonds are rising.
- Prudent investors should note that the Treasury announcement comes one day after the dramatic long bond sell off. In The Arora Report analysis, the U.S. government is once again stepping up to stop the markets from falling.
- Based on the Treasury announcement, our system has triggered lowering of the Arora Protection Band by deploying more cash and reducing more hedges. However, a formal change is not being implemented in the Arora Protection Band at this time for the following reasons:
- The weak seasonal period of September and October is ahead.
- Midterm elections are ahead. Historically, stocks tend to correct before the midterm election.
- The reaction so far may be outsized due to the unexpected nature of the news. We will be watching to see what the sustained reaction from the markets is, not just the immediate reaction.
- The FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET and may be market moving.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a draw of 0.328M barrels vs. a previous build of 9.072M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7748 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7700, 7318, and 7194.
DJIA futures are up 329 points.
Gold futures are at $4436, silver futures are at $64.94, and oil futures are at $84.02.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
