By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
FRONT RUNNING MICRON EARNINGS; IRAN HOPIUM; TRUMP AND TAKAICHI TALK YEN
Sep 25, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Momo Crowd Front Running
Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).
Note the following:
- Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
- The chart shows that SOXL is approaching the low band of zone 2 (resistance).
- RSI on the chart shows the SOXL is overbought. Overbought ETFs tend to be vulnerable to pullbacks.
- Prudent investors should carefully watch to see if SOXL pulls back from here or penetrates zone 2. If SOXL penetrates zone 2, it will be a positive in the short term.
- The momo crowd is front running earnings season. This is driving SOXL higher. In The Arora Report analysis, momo crowd money flows in the AI trade, especially semiconductors have been very positive. The next test for semiconductor bullishness will be on September 30 when Micron (MU) reports earnings.
- In the early trade, there is also bullishness on Iran hopium as oil pulls back. Iran has presented a proposal to the U.S. to resolve the war. In The Arora Report analysis, unless President Trump decides to backtrack from what he has said, the U.S. is unlikely to accept Iran’s conditions.
- The pullback in oil is also stabilizing yields. Stabilization in yields is also helping the stock market in the early trade.
- Durable orders data is mixed. Here are the details:
- Durable orders came in at 0.0% vs -0.4% consensus.
- Durable orders ex-transportation came at 0.3% vs 0.5% consensus.
- In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we shared with you the importance of Japan and the yen. There are two new developments:
- President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi discussed the yen.
- Prime Minister Takaichi is saying that an undervalued yen is “problematic.”
- CPU fever ignited by Meta’s (META) Muse continues. Also, META stock has continued to go higher. In The Arora Report analysis, investors should not get carried away. Significant competition for Muse is coming. As we previously discussed, investors should also distinguish between a lot of downloads vs. actual usage. For Muse to be useful, users will have to give it access to a multitude of their accounts. Our best information at this time is that less than 20% of people are comfortable giving log in information of their various accounts to Meta. As a full disclosure, META is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from an average of $49.92. META is trading at $770.36 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 1443%.
- CPU fever is getting another boost from Akamai (AKAM) signing at $11.6B cloud deal with Anthropic.
- In other significant news, Microsoft (MSFT) is reimagining Copilot, adding new capabilities.
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. However, the AI trade is overbought and can pullback anytime. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7784 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7795, 7831, and 7900 : support levels are 7733, 7626, and 7541.
DJIA futures are up 131 points.
Gold futures are at $4332, silver futures are at $65.09, and oil futures are at $92.71.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
BOND MARKET WARNING GROWS AS TLT FALLS IN ARORA DANGER ZONE – PAY ATTENTION TO JAPAN; OIL HOPIUM FADES
Sep 24, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Bonds In Danger Zone
Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that TLT has fallen into the Arora danger zone. As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. You have known about the Arora danger zone for a while.
- Prudent investors should watch to see if TLT snaps out of the danger zone or falls farther into the danger zone.
- In The Arora Report analysis, smart money is adjusting stock market allocations based on the move in bonds. You have been ahead of the curve as this was already taken into account in the Arora Protection Band. On the flip side, the momo crowd continues to be oblivious, and momo money flows continue to indicate front running earnings season by buying AI stocks.
- Investors should carefully watch today’s $44B seven year Treasury auction.
- In The Arora Report analysis, yesterday’s five year Treasury auction was weak. Here are the details:
- $70B 5 year Treasury note auction
- High yield: 5.033%
- Bid-to-cover: 2.21
- Indirect bid: 54.3%
- Direct bid: 29.9%
- Impacting bonds is the development in Japan from last week. Again, as a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. From last week’s Morning Capsule:
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The move in the yen is creating a policy headache for the U.S.
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Japan is a large holder of U.S. Treasuries. To protect the yen, Japan may need to sell Treasuries so that it has dollars to intervene in the forex market. Such a selling will increase yields in the U.S. Yields are already rising in the U.S. creating headaches and leading the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time since July 2023.
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There is risk to the U.S. stock market from the carry trade, in addition to the risk from rising yields emanating from Japan. In the carry trade, funds have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in Japan to invest in the U.S., primarily in the AI trade.
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- Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, but its holdings have fallen to $1.104T from $1.186T at the end of 2025 and $1.239T in February. It is a $135B retreat from the peak. August country level holdings have not yet been released.
- Japan’s broader capital flow data point to Japanese investors being net sellers of foreign securities. Through August 22, Japanese investors had been net sellers of ¥3T in foreign bonds. However, the data encompass overseas debt generally and do not identify how much, if any, came from the sale of Treasuries.
- Japan does not need to dump Treasuries to drain global liquidity. Here is The Arora Report analysis:
- The foregoing data should not be considered as evidence that Japan is dumping existing Treasury holdings. The important issue is the marginal buyer.
- As Japanese bond yields rise, Japanese institutions have less incentive to send the next dollar abroad.
- Japan does not need to sell its existing Treasury holdings to push U.S. yields higher. It only needs to become less willing to buy the next Treasury at the old yield.
- Higher Treasury yields increase the cost of capital and the discount rate applied to future AI earnings.
- Overnight, the yield on the 10 year Japanese bond reached its highest level since 1996.
- Initial jobless claims came at 197K vs. 202K consensus. The data indicates the jobs picture remains strong.
- From last Friday to Tuesday, the stock market ran up, in part, on oil hopium. This morning oil hopium is fading. You were ahead of the curve as we have been sharing with you that the oil hopium was premature.
- On Tuesday, we wrote:
Yields are slipping as oil pulls back. Oil is pulling back on Saudi Arabia restarting the East-West Pipeline. Prudent investors should note the pipeline is pumping at a low rate and is vulnerable to Houthi attacks.
- Overnight, Houthis fired six ballistic missiles on Saudi Arabia.
- On the positive side, President Xi is in Washington DC. The U.S. and China have extended the trade truce to January 10.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7736 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7795, 7900, 8000 : support levels are 7733, 7626, and 7541.
DJIA futures are down 122 points.
Gold futures are at $4284, silver futures are at $64.13, and oil futures are at $93.70.
IONQ’S BREAKTHROUGH IGNITES QUANTUM COMPUTING STOCKS – BOTTLENECK MAY BE FALLING; FRONT RUNNING EARNINGS
Sep 23, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Quantum Computing Breakthrough
Please click here for a chart of IonQ stock (IONQ).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of IONQ is being used to illustrate the point of a major technological breakthrough in the important technology of quantum computing.
- The chart shows that IONQ is in zone 1 (resistance).
- The chart shows that IONQ stock is jumping on a major breakthrough.
- The chart shows zone 2 (support) is far away.
- RSI on the chart shows the stock is overbought.
- The big, real world problem with quantum computing has been the errors. For those who would like next level knowledge about investing in quantum computing, there is a podcast series in Arora Ambassador Club.
- IONQ stock is jumping after IonQ demonstrated that a standard CPU could keep pace with the real time error decoding demands of simulated fault tolerant quantum workloads involving as many as 408 logical qubits and more than 31 million operations.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the breakthrough suggests that the conventional computing required to correct quantum errors may not become the major scaling bottleneck many had feared. However, investors need to remain skeptical until more details are available.
- There are several quantum computing technologies. At this time, it is not known which technology will win out.
- IonQ and Quantinuum (QNT) both use trapped ion technology, in which electrically charged atoms serve as qubits and are controlled with lasers. Trapped ion systems generally offer very high accuracy and flexible connectivity, although they operate more slowly than superconducting systems. In this case, the slower operating cycle gave IonQ’s ordinary CPU considerably more time to decode errors.
- The breakthrough comes as the Quantum World Congress begins today. The congress may bring more news and more developments that can move quantum computing stocks such as International Business Machines (IBM), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Quantum Computing (QUBT), and Infleqtion (INFQ).
- As a full disclosure, there is a new signal on IONQ in ZYX Buy.
- After a significant run starting late last week. AI stocks are taking a breather this morning as some investors take profits. Money flows show that the primary reason for the torrid run has been the momo crowd front running earnings season. The first test will come when Micron (MU) report earnings on September 30. As a full disclosure, MU is in ZYX Buy long from an average of $21.77. It is trading at $1086.50 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 4891%.
- Prudent investor should note the following:
- When Micron reported earnings last quarter, the stock first ran up and then quickly dropped 41% intraday.
- The drop came in spite of Micron beating earnings consensus by 20%, revenue consensus by 15%, and earnings guidance consensus by 20%.
- In The Arora Report analysis, as we previously shared, the reason MU stock fell in spite of stellar earnings was very positive positioning ahead of earnings. When positioning is very positive, it is like everyone being on the same side of the boat. Minor turbulence can capsize the boat.
- In The Arora Report analysis, so far positioning in MU stock this time is positive but not very positive.
- Micron whisper numbers continue to move higher. Stocks move based on the difference between reported numbers and whisper numbers.
- In The Arora Report analysis, it is important for investors to watch money flows, positioning, and whisper numbers on Micron as they progress to September 30. The result will have implications for the entire AI trade, not just MU, and in turn for the entire stock market.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a build of 1.786M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 0.5M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7820 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7831, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7795, 7733, and 7626.
DJIA futures are down 180 points.
Gold futures are at $4304, silver futures are at $65.56, and oil futures are at $91.07.
NVIDIA IS KING OF AI, BUT COMMODITY ETF RETURNS 131% HIGHER THAN NVIDIA; MUSE IGNITED CPU FEVER
Sep 22, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
CPU Fever
Please click here for a chart comparing Nvidia (NVDA) and commodities ETF (PDBC).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that king of AI NVDA has returned 20.11% year to date.
- The chart shows that commodity ETF PDBC has returned 46.39% year to date. PDBC’s return is 131% of NVDA’s return.
- The chart illustrates how diversifying beyond AI increases returns and lowers risks. Higher return with lower risk is the holy grail of investing.
- At this time when most portfolios are very heavy in AI positions, prudent investors should take time to review their portfolios for adequate diversification beyond AI stocks. In The Arora Report analysis, if there is a market downturn because AI deployment slows or AI monetization does not live up to expectations, diversification within AI will not help as all AI stocks will go down together.
- As a full disclosure, PDBC is in the ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio and NVDA is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
- CPU fever has gripped the stock market. The fever was triggered by the popularity of Muse from Meta (META). While GPUs have been used extensively for LLM training and inference, CPUs are important for AI agents. Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are the two primary providers of CPUs. Qualcomm (QCOM) and Arm (ARM) have also jumped into the business of providing CPUs. As full disclosure, there are very large gains in INTC, AMD, QCOM, and ARM positions in The Arora Report portfolios. Also as a full disclosure, taking advantage of the strength in CPU stocks, profits have been taken on a trade around position in INTC.
- In The Arora Report analysis, in spite of the uber bullishness about Meta and CPUs, prudent investors should note that for Muse to work well users will need to give Muse access to a multitude of their accounts. How many users are going to trust AI and give their account information to Muse is yet to be seen. Amazon (AMZN) has banned Muse. On the other hand, Shopify (SHOP) will allow Muse for agentic check out. As a full disclosure, META is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. The position is long from an average of $49.92. It is trading at $735.59 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a 1374% gain.
- China is making strides to reduce its dependence on U.S. AI chips ahead of Trump Xi talks. Alibaba (BABA) is introducing a new powerful AI chip.
- Of special note for prudent investors is that SoftBank (SFTBY) is delaying its datacenter unit IPO. It appears the delay is due to AI safety fears and slowdown talk. SoftBank is a big investor in ChatGPT maker OpenAI. In The Arora Report analysis, the delay will fuel the debate if the stock market is overpricing AI datacenter and chip stocks.
- President Trump will address the U.N. General Assembly this morning. President Trump’s speech may be market moving.
- Yields are slipping as oil pulls back. Oil is pulling back on Saudi Arabia restarting the East-West Pipeline. Prudent investors should note the pipeline is pumping at a low rate and is vulnerable to Houthi attacks. Also adding to the oil drop is a report that Iran is willing to open the Strait of Hormuz in seven days if the U.S. lifts the naval blockade.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7840 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7831, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7795, 7733, and 7626.
DJIA futures are up 312 points.
Gold futures are at $4338, silver futures are at $66.35, and oil futures are at $90.04.
STOCKS JUMP ON IRAN, CHINA, AND BITCOIN HOPIUM — BUT THE BIG CONFLICTS HAVE NOT GONE AWAY
Sep 21, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Buying On Hopium
Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).
Note the following:
- Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
- The chart shows SOXL bounced above the top band of zone 3 (support) on Friday due to triple witching buying. Friday also saw aggressive call buying in several semiconductor stocks including Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU).
- The chart shows SOXL is jumping again in the early trade on very aggressive buying.
- There is very aggressive buying in the stock market this morning, especially in the AI trade. There are five main factors:
- Hopium about Iran
- Hoping about China
- Bitcoin jumping above $85K
- Greenland deal
- Anthropic IPO
- President Trump is likely to meet Gulf leaders in New York this week. The stock market is assuming that the talks will lead to a resolution of the Iran war. Prudent investors should note that Iran is not part of these talks. Iran has laid out its demands to end the war, and the U.S. is unlikely to accept Iran’s demands.
- We previously shared with you that a Houthi attack had shut down the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia had been using the pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz to send oil from its eastern fields to the Red Sea. This morning, there is hopium that Saudi Arabia could repair the pipeline soon. In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should note that technical hurdles remain and Houthis can attack the pipeline again at any time.
- President Xi of China will be meeting President Trump. Secretary Bessent says he has had productive talks with his counterpart ahead of the summit. In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should note that there are tough issues regarding Taiwan, trade, and AI. Irrespective of this morning’s hopium, China is going to continue its quest to get ahead of the U.S. in AI and to replace the U.S. as the world’s superpower.
- Bitcoin jumping over $85K is creating significant positive sentiment that is resulting in buying in tech stocks. In The Arora Report analysis, a large number of investors who aggressively buy bitcoin also aggressively buy speculative tech stocks. Further in The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should note the jump in bitcoin is primarily the result of a short squeeze. Short squeezes tend to end.
- President Trump has been wanting to make Greenland part of the U.S. Now, the matter has been resolved. There is a deal that falls short of a takeover but allows the U.S. to expand its military presence in Greenland and permanently bars China and Russia from investing in Greenland. Shares of Greenland related stocks such as Greenland Energy (GLND), Greenland Mines (GRML), and Critical Metals (CRML) are jumping.
- For those who want deeper knowledge, listen to the podcast titled “THE NEXT PHASE OF AI PART 5 – MARKET MAY FRONT RUN EARNINGS AS FED AND JAPAN TIGHTEN GLOBAL LIQUIDITY” that will be published shortly in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Anthropic’s IPO now appears to be scheduled for November. This is generating additional enthusiasm for AI stocks.
- Nasdaq quarterly rebalancing that takes effect today increases SpaceX (SPCX) weighting to 2.82% from 1.28%. This is causing index funds to buy SPCX stock.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7761 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7795, 7831, and 7900 : support levels are 7733, 7626, and 7541.
DJIA futures are up 403 points.
Gold futures are at $4358, silver futures are at $67.14, and oil futures are at $93.55.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

